I completely agree that making predictions, especially macro predictions, is a fool's errand. Instead I've tried to focus on protecting my downside while also taking advantage of market conditions.
Here's what I did this year:
I sold a large portion of my portfolio this year, but mostly did so with owner financing. This enabled me to create cash flow with no associated liability, and without a massive tax consequence. With high interest rates, I'm very happy with the CoC returns going forward.
I made new investments in cash, so I don't have to fear a downturn or pay high rates.
I invested heavily in my agent business, and have recruited 3 new agents to my team. The uncertainty in the real estate market has made this the ideal time to pick up new talent, because being on an investment focused agent team provides new opportunities in a downturn.
I don't believe my market, San Antonio, is going to have a real crash, but I'm well positioned if we do. I'm also taking advantage of the current fear, because there are already a few sellers willing to take big discounts today, because of the panic created by national news.
I don't understand why people spend time arguing about where the market is headed, instead of simply preparing themselves and their portfolio for whatever they expect.