All Forum Posts by: Jason Malabute

I can really appreciate what you are doing and I am impressed that you are pulling data and being throughtful.  I am going to offer a couple thoughts as someone who has bought sold or rented homes in 28 states.

1)  It is all about the 'deal' not the market.  Get a good price in a bad market, you will be ok.

2)  Do all markets and diversify.  Buy 1 home in each market you like.  With technology, platforum property managers like our team can handle multiple geographies.

3)  Get micro - you say N. Carolina is good.  Well... that is a broad market.  How about Charlotte?  Then how about narrowing to a suburb you like there.  

4)  just do it.  Planning can sometimes make us out think ourself.

5)  Do not follow the hurd when you invest.  Yes, Atlanta has many easy to find deals. But EVERYONE is there... what does that do for you?

Thanks for listening.  I wish you happy investing.

yes!  I mixed up Ed Glaeser and Richard Florida. 

 It's not easy to get at this information, but you might piggy back on some research done by people like Richard Glaeser, who has been arguing for years that it is zoning that makes the biggest difference in housing affordability - basically how easy it is to build.  You could look at the places he identifies as toughest to build in as targets and then figure out which areas are growing.

However, there is a fundamental contradiction here, because it's tough to grow when it's tough to build.  Housing is much more expensive in these markets, and they are likely slower-growth places.  The places that are tougher to build are also likely the  coastal cities with limited land and high land-use restrictions, which make real estate very expensive.

I'd be curious to see the results of your research, though.

@Jason, there is some data out there for you to do the analysis you are looking to do.  

To find a market that is experiencing a population growth and job growth (as described by Jonathan), you could look at data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and from the Census Bureau:

• For data on population growth by city and town: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2016/demo/popes... (scroll down to the data sets)
• For data on job growth: https://www.bls.gov/lau/
  • Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates: https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/ssamatab1.txt
  • Labor Force Data by County, Annual Averages: https://www.bls.gov/lau/#cntyaa

To find a market that is experiencing a time in which building permits are crazy expensive or prohibited (as described by Grant), you could look at building permits issuances.  Although issuances and expense are not the same at face value, I believe it hits home to the underlying goal (possibly even better) of answering, "what is a place in which housing supply should soon experience a lag behind the employed population of the area?"  The Census Bureau breaks out building permit issuances by region, state, metropolitan area, and county:

• New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized Unadjusted Units by Metropolitan Area: https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/txt/t3yu20...
• All Building Permit Survey data: https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/

 It's not easy to get at this information, but you might piggy back on some research done by people like Richard Glaeser, who has been arguing for years that it is zoning that makes the biggest difference in housing affordability - basically how easy it is to build.  You could look at the places he identifies as toughest to build in as targets and then figure out which areas are growing.

However, there is a fundamental contradiction here, because it's tough to grow when it's tough to build.  Housing is much more expensive in these markets, and they are likely slower-growth places.  The places that are tougher to build are also likely the  coastal cities with limited land and high land-use restrictions, which make real estate very expensive.

I'd be curious to see the results of your research, though.

Jason Ma, I could Not recommenD anYone by name. Perhaps if we Just hEld oN for a SEcoNd that person might see this thread....

;) ;) ;)