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All Forum Posts by: Jason Howell

Jason Howell has started 26 posts and replied 105 times.

Originally posted by @Caleb Heimsoth:

However, if you look up James wise Cleveland neighborhood guide he lists this as a D area. 

 Dang, Caleb. Awesome tip right there, thank you for the heads up. I wish guides like this existed for all the markets I'm researching at the moment!

Post: ARV slows down deal analysis... right?

Jason HowellPosted
  • Petaluma, CA
  • Posts 106
  • Votes 86

 Incredibly helpful!! And more than that, makes perfect sense. It's like I understood this process, but having it spelled out like this sets my mind at ease a bit more. I'll make this part of my workflow so I can master it over these next few months.

Man, I love learning this stuff. THANK YOU.

Originally posted by @Julian Ford:

Hi, where did you get your Heloc? And what was the rate? Does anyone do it on non-owner occupied?

We got ours through a local credit union. Keep in mind that a HELOC has a variable rate so it likely will change over time, so you have to make sure you still cash flow on a deal considering it would be 100 percent financed at that point. I'm not knowledgable on non-owner occupied HELOC tbh.

Post: ARV slows down deal analysis... right?

Jason HowellPosted
  • Petaluma, CA
  • Posts 106
  • Votes 86

Incredibly helpful! If I'm understanding, analyze based on cash flow first. That tells you whether it meets your requirements there and whether its worth your time diving deeper on the ARV to THEN see if it makes sense from a cash out refinance perspective. If so, PURSUE. :)

Thank you!!

It's pretty common practice to use a HELOC drawn from the equity in one's home to serve as the down payment for investment real estate... yet I haven't found any calculators that will allow me to add that into the equation when it comes to deal analysis. Instead, I have to rely on the Monthly Cashflow figure and then determine what the monthly outlay will be for the HELOC draw that paid for the down payment and subtract that from the Cashflow figure manually.

I'd love to see this as an option in the BP calculators. So maybe this is part feature request...

But I'm sure some of you have experienced this before. How do you factor this variable into your equations when analyzing deals?

Post: ARV slows down deal analysis... right?

Jason HowellPosted
  • Petaluma, CA
  • Posts 106
  • Votes 86
Originally posted by @John Leavelle:

@Jason Howell

Right.  You need to find what works best for you.

 When I first started a few years ago I did a 30 day challenge.  Analysis 30 properties in 30 days.  I started a blog on it and posted my results for all to see.  There were some Experienced BP members that said I was wasting my time.  That I was stuck in “Analysis Paralysis “.  I should be getting out on the street finding properties and putting in offers.  But, I stuck to my way.  I did not have the time to do what they were saying.  I work 60 - 70 hours a week at a W2 job.

Many others (mostly newbies like me) appreciated my posting.  It helped them learn as well.  I wanted to develop a quick conservative method of weeding out properties so I wasn’t wasting my time.  Doing the challenge helped ingrain the basics of analyzing properties.

At the end of the challenge I started submitting offers on some of the properties that met my criteria.  All were rejected not surprisingly.  However, one Sellers Agent came to us with another deal.  A 2 for 1 distressed property buy.  I bought both.  They in turn lead me to a third property.  One of them was a Duplex on a little over an acre lot.  I am in the process of adding additional buildings to it.

My point is keep analyzing until the proper calculations are second nature.  Find a good investor friendly realtor to help fine tune the numbers.  Then jump in —- the waters fine.

While I can understand the "analysis paralysis" point... My hope is to, like you say, convert certain pieces of the process from exercise to actual knowledge and understanding at a deeper level. I know for me, that only comes via repetition. Had you already picked a location prior to starting your 30 days? I find I'm jumping between markets, both out of curiousity and in an attempt to be exposed to the norms of many different areas.

I already have four properties in Indianapolis and in the end, might simply opt to stay in that market since I know it at least marginally better than other random markets I'm researching. But it's all for education. There will be an action point, this will prep me for that.

Thank you!!

Post: ARV slows down deal analysis... right?

Jason HowellPosted
  • Petaluma, CA
  • Posts 106
  • Votes 86
Originally posted by @John Leavelle:

Howdy @Jason Howell

The reality is you can not find sufficient comps to use and complete the analysis all within 15 minutes.  If you are using a website like Zillow to find properties to analyze use the sold comps it provides.  Make few adjustments and use the average.

What your initially doing is identifying possible properties to evaluate in more detail.  I would concentrate on some simple criteria to weed out properties.  Such as does the current asking price and monthly rental income meet the 1% rule.  Then will it cash flow a minimum of $100 per unit using 50% for expenses.  If it meets both set that one aside to dig deeper.  If not move to the next property.

The ones you identify to dig a little deeper on are when you develop better comps and spend more than 15 minutes analyzing.

This speaks volumes to me, thank you. I'll definitely remind myself that at this stage, I shouldn't be killing myself trying to find just the right number to drop in for ARV. Maybe in the beginning, I match the ARV to whatever the acquisition cost is and if it passes the test there, then dive deeper on a true ARV calculation. Saves time that way for sure. It's easy to get into the weeds when I overthink it. And then it takes way longer than the 15 minute target.

But I'm learning a ton! Its my early morning ritual at the moment (thanks to Miracle Morning).

Post: ARV slows down deal analysis... right?

Jason HowellPosted
  • Petaluma, CA
  • Posts 106
  • Votes 86
Originally posted by @Larry Turowski:

@Jason Howell ARVs or comps is a bit of an art.  Even realtors will vary.  For your purposes, I would think that a rough guess would be fine.  Those 15 minutes tell you if you want to take a close look at the property, where you'd really try to nail down numbers as close as possible.

Here's how I do ARVs.  Ideally, you will be able to find recently (last 6 months, or even the last few weeks) sold properties (at least three) that are as identical in features (style, beds, baths, square footage, lot size, condition) in the same neighborhood as your subject property.  Then is it simple.  The subject property should should be right in the range of those properties.

But in reality, This almost never the case.  So the trick is in making allowances.  Maybe yours is a 1 bath, and all the others are 1.5 bath.  Then find another group of houses that have both 1 bath and 1.5 bath houses, that are identical to yours in every way, except maybe they have a two car garages, where yours has a one car garage, and are otherwise identical to each other.  You might notice that that the ones with an extra half bath sold for $8k more, on average, than the ones with one bath.  Now go back to your house and your three or more comps that all have 1.5 baths, take the average and subtract $8k.

This is still a pretty simple scenario.  In truth, your subject property will probably vary in a number of ways from the comps, so you need to calculate these allowances for each one of those differences.  Maybe in addition to this .5 bath difference there is also a 100sqft difference, maybe also 2-car wide driveway vs a 1-car wide driveway.  Maybe a pool vs no pool, etc.  Calculate an allowance, up and down for each one of them.  That's how I get my ARVs.

 Awesome information, really appreciate you taking the time to spell this out for me! I'm definitely understanding that I should probably be a bit looser on this detail in the early stages... and open up to more detailed analysis once I know it passes the first level of tests.

But I will say that doing this deal analysis each morning has been SUPER educational. I'm starting to really get a nice point by point comparison of what each number means in a contextual sense. I understood in broad strokes before. Now I'm starting to have an immediate reaction when a deal might be ok or not at all. I suppose that's the goal of this exercise!

Post: ARV slows down deal analysis... right?

Jason HowellPosted
  • Petaluma, CA
  • Posts 106
  • Votes 86

I'm in the midst of @Brandon Turner's 90 day challenge where I have committed to analyzing at least one property every day for 90 days. So far, I've really learned a lot about the many facets of deal analysis and in particular, the components within the Bigger Pockets calculators that I can safely assume on... But ARV gets me every single time.

On one hand, I'm supposed to find a property to analyze, punch the numbers in and move on, learning what I can along the way. (per the challenge)

On the other hand, After Repair Value isn't something you can just guess on. In order to do it right, you either have to rope an agent into the mix (who has the means with which to do the CMA appropriately) or spend far more than the 15 minutes that I'm expected to spend on analyzing deals every morning.

I feel like at this stage, I'm analyzing deals and more or less guessing on ARV but that's a HUGELY important figure to get right, so my deal analysis is rather moot if I'm just guessing ARV...

Does anyone have any processes to share that make calculating ARV a bit more streamlined? What am I missing?

Post: Real Estate license: Helpful for investing out of state?

Jason HowellPosted
  • Petaluma, CA
  • Posts 106
  • Votes 86
Originally posted by @Caleb Heimsoth:

I know there are various opinions on this topic but personally I think being an investor and an agent do not help you at all. If you have a contractor background that would be helpful but I would t want to be an agent and investor unless you do serious volume as far as purchasing, and it sounds like you don’t

No contractor background. I've met serious investors who are licensed and who don't actively sell as an agent. Why would they have this license if its not of any extra use in this process? I suppose this is something I should ask them directly.

Thank you!