All Forum Posts by: Collin Hays

@Chad Martin I agree with the previous comments that 2020 has seen unprecedented demand, and it is not likely to subside any time soon. I still believe there is pent up demand for STR from people being in their homes and not flying. I can also attest to prices going through the roof. I am in Frisco, and the lowest listing right now is $1M. That is a lot of rental nights!

To your question, to Michael's point about depreciating real estate and to your point about this 3x. This is what I mean that real estate is inelastic in primo areas.

Real estate isn't about the $117/mo it nets after expenses or whatever nonsense folks worry about. Real estate got the early fools in based off that initial cash flow; they're no genius, they just gravitated to the lowest hanging fruit for money. That happened to be the inflection point of low rates + phys RE pricing reset. Now, we're back to normalcy in rates, less normalcy in supply(in key areas) and inverse(in dreadful areas).

Invest  prudently and in quality. Risk is what you pay, not always just what you buy.

No, we have used inflatable mattresses in a pinch and they last about a week.  I would expect the same for a hot tub.

Hopefully, I don't come off like a broken record when I say these things. But the investing for cash flow logic was only around for two reasons to put together at 20-25% down-- as it now is, and always will be a function of debt in the deal

1) Centurial---not generational--but centurial issue with physical real estate asset prices.
2) America's desperate attempt to re-ignite inflation with historically, and also possibly centurial if at minimum generational, policy on fed funds rates.

Those two made physical RE have intrinsic properties from 2010-2017. 2-3 years prior and after that it will be less intrinsic but still resemble it, as it fades.

People need to stop thinking this is the norm, this is the outlier. Welcome to the reversion of the mean.

For how to invest in RE, it's going to be inelastic in nature and have real runway moments more often than not in primo areas. Prioritize quality + keep reserves for Opex + capex. Scale is in form of quality equity not nonsense quantity.