All Forum Posts by: Bryan Noth

You can read all about how to swim, watch the videos online of swimming, even pay for a guru on how to swim but eventually you have to get in the water yourself.  

The bane and blessing of real estate investing is there are so many avenues to explore, it truly depends on your situation, your abilities, and your needs. I started my REI journey in Austin very focused on cash flow small multifamily, then moved towards appreciation with SFH LTRs, then towards value add opportunities. There does not need to be a single route and it can change.

What are your goals with investing and what strategy is most appealing to you/your situation?

@Nicole Parry

Glad to connect @Jeff Lara and thanks for the shout out @Lucia Rushton!

Work on the project, now named Greenport Airport, has ramped up in recent months, Austin Business Journal has learned. Marketing material posted online sketch a plan for a 5,000-acre “World Trade Center Austin,” with a mixed-use industrial campus and technology park surrounding the private airport.

This project has has rumors circling it for years but has seen a massive uptick in recent months.  The project marketing material touts a whopping $19 Billion dollar plan for development.  Multiple entities have amassed 3000 acres to date surrounding the target area for the project.  

Filings reported here:

https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/TAB…

Marketing Promo from the developer:

https://online.fliphtml5.com/v…

Article links:

https://www.kxan.com/news/busi…

https://www.bizjournals.com/au...

January 2023 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

January 2023 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was a slight decrease in median sales price from the preceding month and a slight decrease from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw a change in month to month median sale price from $525,250 to $525,000 a month to month decrease of $250 and a 4% decrease from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a change in median sale price from $457,426 to $450,000 a month to month decrease of $7,426 and a 6% decrease from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory for the MSA saw no change in available inventory from 2.7 months in December to January, but a 2.3 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin saw a slight increase in month to month inventory from 2.1 months in December to 2.2 months for January, and a 1.9 months increase over the preceding year.

The trend of a historically high number of Withdrawn and Expired listings continues with 1,610 listings being withdrawn or expired for January. With only 1,634 closed sales for the month that ratio skyrocketed to 98.5% of the volume of homes withdrawn versus homes sold. The total number of listings is now at 7,323 homes which is slightly lower than December but an impressive 462% increase from the preceding year.

The data paints an interesting landscape for the market. The increased Days on Market, lower Closed Sales, and increased number of New and Active Listings would normally push us towards a full blown buyer’s market scenario. However, the high rate of withdrawn and expired listings highlights that the majority of sellers are not being put in a position where they are forced to sell. Most likely anyone owning or purchasing a property in the last 1 to 3 years likely bought at or refinanced into respectively low rates compared to today’s prices. Meaning those properties are easier to hold onto and have helped keep the scales from tilting entirely in the opposite direction.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

@Account Closed If you clear 0.5% on RTP ratio in Austin it can usually break even for a traditional investment. The example you gave on the RR Duplex was 0.72% which is solid. You did mention the FHA loan and going that route will distort cash flow significantly because of the MIP and higher loan amount. FHA is a fantastic lever to get into a property with lower capital up front but the downside is worse cash flow metrics.

@Harmon Raef there is demand in central Austin, but make sure the unit and building allows for 30 days rentals, many have limits of 3 or 6 months as a minimum lease term.  

December 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

December 2022 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was a slight decrease in median sales price from the preceding month and a slight decrease from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw a change in month to month median sale price from $530,000 to $525,250 a month to month decrease of $4,750 and a 4% decrease from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a change in median sale price from $467,955 to $457,426 a month to month decrease of $10,529 and a 3% decrease from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory for the MSA saw a decrease in month to month inventory from 3.1 months in November to 2.7 months for December, and a 2.1 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin saw a slight decrease month to month inventory from 2.6 months in November to 2.1 months for December, and a 1.6 months increase over the preceding year.

Inventory saw a sizable decrease for the month of December. Withdrawn and expired listings continue to remain high at 1,485 listings were withdrawn or expired for December. New listings were down 24% from the preceding month and 15% when compared to the previous year. Closed sales were down 20% from the preceding month and 36% when compared to the previous year. And active listings are up a staggering 275% from the previous year.

Lower volume of homes coming to market and high withdrawn and expired listings are keeping inventory from vaulting towards a buyer’s market. Many sellers are choosing not to sell right now and the vast majority have favorable mortgage rates that allow them to hold onto the property.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Tesla has filed a series of plans with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation(TDLR) to construct proposed additions at the campus. The six filings, registered between Dec. 20, 2022, and Jan. 10, 2023, total $833,700,000 and 1.7 million square feet of additional space.

Half of the filings propose starting work at the end of this month.

View the filings below:

• $58 million for 174,979 square feet of new construction (filed Dec. 20)
• $3.7 million for 2,560 square feet of new construction (filed Jan. 9)
• $85 million for 423,032 square feet of new construction (filed Jan. 9)
• $260 million for 321,186 square feet of new construction (filed Jan. 9)
• $368 million for 693,093 square feet of new construction (filed Jan. 9)
• $59 million for 107,468 square feet of new construction (filed Jan. 10)

The permits don't say what the various buildings would be used for.

Quoted article and free local news article link:

https://www.kvue.com/article/m...

ABJ link:

https://www.bizjournals.com/au...

November 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

November 2022 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was a slight decrease in median sales price from the preceding month and no change from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw a change in month to month median sale price from $555,000 to $530,000 a month to month decrease of $25,000 and a 1% decrease from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a change in median sale price from $474,990 to $467,995 a month to month decrease of $6,995 and no change from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory for the MSA saw a slight decrease in month to month inventory from 3.2 months in October to 3.1 months for November, and a 2.3 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin saw a slight increase month to month inventory from 2.8 months in October to 2.6 months for November, and a 1.9 months increase over the preceding year.

Withdrawn and expired listings continue to remain high. Total volume was down from a yearly apex in October at 1,877. November showed 1,752 listings were withdrawn or expired for the month but this amounted to 86% of the total closed sales of 2,026 as reported by ABOR during that same timeframe. This was a 2% increase in the withdrawn to closed sales ratio seen in October.

The Federal Reserve did increase interest rates in November as well as in December which most likely will keep downward pressure on prices going forward. And they have already indicated additional rate increases are likely coming in early 2023. There is little doubt another increase will come as they have stuck to prior increase committments 5 months running now.

The relatively low volume of new listings and high volume of withdrawn listings tells us a lot. Sellers do not have to sell. The market is feeling the heavy hand of the Fed’s rate hikes but the vast majority of mortgages in place are not forcing owners to liquidate en mass. As long as rates increase I suspect prices will be pushed down, but I do not expect a crash will result from this alone.

December’s stats will not be compiled until mid January so this is the last update within the 2022 calendar year. I wish everyone reading here good luck with your ventures moving into the New Year.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

@Amrit Babu is this condo regime or ADA on subdivided single lot in Austin?