All Forum Posts by: Bryan Noth

May 2023 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

May 2023 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was an increase in median sales price from the preceding month and a decrease from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw a decrease in month to month median sale price from $565,000 to $550,000 a month to month decrease of $15,000 and an 16% decrease from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a slight increase in median sale price from $466,705 to $467,500 a month to month increase of $795 and a 15% decrease from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory for the MSA saw continues to creep upwards with available inventory from 3.2 months in April to 3.4 months in May, and a 2.2 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin saw an increase as well in month to month inventory from 3.2 months in April to 3.5 months in April, and a 2.5 months increase over the preceding year.

There was a slight increase in the Withdrawn and Expired listings for the month of May with 1,086 in total. However, the increase in closed sales volume with 3,411 total sales brings the percentage of withdrawn/expired to sold sales up slightly to 31.8%. This still indicates a relative position of strength from the seller's vantage as many are not forced to sell and helps add to why the market has not teetered towards a true "buyer's market" with respect to inventory which would historically need to be at 6 months. 

The Days on Market has decreased again from 71 to 65 days on average for the MSA and from 48 to 44 days for the City of Austin. The volume of pending sales saw a minimal change from the preceding month as well as compared to the preceding year with both under a 1% change. Coupling this with the decreased days on market and it may indicate a more balanced point for sales between home prices and interest rates.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Thanks @Lucia Rushton!

I would be happy to help share insight on the Austin market @Courtney Mccrear. Assuming another VA loan is most restricted by finding another VA loan, and then getting a second lien or bringing cash to sort out any price discrepancy for the seller. VA loans do not have the self sufficiency requirement FHA does which opens up options significantly as long as DTI ratios pencil for the lender. The MF house hack with the VA loan is an incredibly powerful tool for jump starting investing, love the strategy.

Indeed @Lucia Rushton and thanks for the mention! @Joseph Henry

There are still deals all over Austin, though some areas do tend to have better ratios when running numbers. If you are finding nothing fits your criteria and metrics I would first check to make sure your estimates are on par for the area and possibly push the search outwards a bit.  As you get beyond the immediate adjacent suburbs the cash flow numbers tend to improve.  Unfortunately, while there are deals to be found, there are certainly unrealistic options as well which sounds like you may have come across one of those.   

April 2023 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

April 2023 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was an increase in median sales price from the preceding month and a decrease from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw a modest increase in month to month median sale price from $529,495 to $565,000 a month to month increase of $35,505 and an 11% decrease from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a change in median sale price from $450,000 to $466,705 a month to month increase of $16,705 and a 15% decrease from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory for the MSA saw continues to creep upwards with available inventory from 3.0 months in March to 3.2 months in April, and a 2.4 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin saw an increase as well in month to month inventory from 2.8 months in March to 3.2 months in April, and a 2.5 months increase over the preceding year.

There was a slight increase in the Withdrawn and Expired listings for the month of April with 1,077 in total.  Factoring in the 2,611 total closed sales for the same time period the percentage of withdrawn/expired to sold sales climbs back up slightly to 41%.  

The Days on Market has decreased notably from 80 to 71 days on average for the MSA and from 66 to 48 days for the City of Austin. The number of active listings changed marginally at 3% from the preceding month and continues to be much higher than the year prior which had a 206% increase in year over year active listings. However, the number of new listings was down from the preceding year and the preceding month which resulted in the month to month delta decrease of 161% for active lsitings.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

March 2023 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

March 2023 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was an increase in median sales price from the preceding month and a decrease from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw a slight decrease in month to month median sale price from $530,000 to $529,495 a month to month decrease of $505 and a 15% decrease from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a change in median sale price from $436,419 to $450,000 a month to month increase of $13,581 and a 13% decrease from the previous year. The MSA median home sale price has returned to the same number as January 2023, which was also $450,000.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory for the MSA saw a further increase in available inventory from 2.6 months in February to 3.0 months in March, and a 2.5 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin saw an increase as well in month to month inventory from 2.2 months in February to 2.8 months in March, and a 2.3 months increase over the preceding year.

There was a slight increase in the Withdrawn and Expired listings for the month of March with 1,067 in total, though this is by volume only. With 2,804 total sales for the month of March the percentage of withdrawn/expired to sold sales comes down to 38% which is still high but is now trending downward from a nearly 1:1 ratio (98%) n January.

The Days on Market has decreased slightly from 84 to 80 days on average for the MSA and from 74 to 66 days for the City of Austin. The remaining sales data shows a more active market in March as compared to February, but less than was seen in 2022.

If you are watching broader market indicators the interest rates tend to show buyer activity fluctuating around the 6.5% mark. As rates climb above 6.5% buying activity tends to dwindle and when rates dip under 6.5% the buyer activity tends to increase (as indicated with mortgage applications as a marker of buyer sentiment whereas purchases would be a more lagging measure). This may indicate the market has found a balancing point between price and interest rate but that can change as there is a lot of economic juggling taking place right now.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Welcome to there Austin area @Brendan Terranova!  Would be glad to connect.

@Yashar Fred most of the items a housing authority identifies as deficient should be remediated anyway.  This is usually good for 3 years.  The housing authority is a bit like a co-signer for the lease so they would just decline to sign on grounds of an unqualified property and the lease would never execute.  The housing authority also has to approve the monthly rent for the area, this can be constricting if you are leading on comparable market rents when looking to increase rents on renewal.

@Yashar Fred I have had several Section 8 tenants in my San Antonio rentals (SAHA, HABC) and my experience is that while bad tenants exist, being Section 8 does not make them inherently bad.  In fact, many subsidized housing tenants take great care of the property because they risk lousing their voucher if they violate lease terms.  Most housing voucher programs have a minimum 1 year suspension until they are eligible to apply again, some as much as 3 years.  This is sacred to many voucher tenants as it is often the only avenue allowing them to live independently.  Ultimately, it comes down to good tenant screening, section 8 or not. 

As for working with subsidized housing programs the biggest thorn I have encountered is they require a property inspection that the unit must pass to be deemed eligible for voucher funding.

February 2023 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

February 2023 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was a slight decrease in median sales price from the preceding month and a decrease from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw a slight increase in month to month median sale price from $525,000 to $530,000 a month to month increase of $5,000 and a 6% decrease from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a change in median sale price from $450,000 to $436,419 a month to month decrease of $13,581 and a 12% decrease from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory for the MSA saw a slight tightening of available inventory from 2.7 months in January to 2.6 months in February, and a 2.3 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin saw no change in month to month inventory from 2.2 months in January to February, and a 1.9 months increase over the preceding year.

There was a respective decrease in the Withdrawn and Expired listings for the month of February with 1,016 in total. And with 2,106 total sales the percentage of withdrawn/expired to sold sales comes down to 48% which is still high for a balanced market but a notable change from January’s 98.5% number.

The Days on Market has risen to nearly 3 months with 84 days on average, a whopping 55 days more than the same time last year. Another striking data point is the number of active listings which is up 499% from last year coming in at 7,167 active listings versus 1,240 active listings in February of 2022.

As we turned the page from 2022 to 2023 all of the increases in home prices seen in 2022 were essentially zeroed out and a continued slight decline continues. Looking back at the five previous years with regards to the MSA, the median sales price was:

$295,000 in February 2019

$327,140 in February 2020

$395,000 in February 2021

$499,995 in February 2022

$436,419 in February 2023

Broadly speaking, the overly tight inventory in 2021 and 2022 was forcing suburb home prices up quite rapidly. The City of Austin and Travis County in general did see strong growth in those years, over 20% appreciation each year. However, if you delve into specific counties and cities you see larger discrepancies. Caldwell, Williamson, Hays, and Bastrop counties saw 30-60% increases in the same timeframe and that rocketed MSA prices upwards. There is quite a bit of data to unpack there to see the extrapolated impact for specific regions but should help explain the figures populating now.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

@Nathan Gesner

The case I believe you are alluding to has popped up in RE Brokerage classes and has stuck with me.  Landlord made many attempts to accommodate both sides (tenant with pet allergies and tenant with support animal) and courts initially sided with landlord/support animal but ultimately this was overruled in favor of tenant who signed a lease because of no pet policy. 

Case linked below:

https://www.iowacourts.gov/iow…