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All Forum Posts by: Bryan Noth

Bryan Noth has started 153 posts and replied 1042 times.

Post: October 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078

@Jason Grote I believe we will see some increased activity with the seasonality norms in the spring/summer.  Interest rates are the unknown.  If they go up it puts more pressure on prices and makes sellers more reluctant to part with a property.  If we see interest rates improve that early in 2023, I think the inherent demand is certainly present in the Austin market. 

Post: October 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078

Honestly there are some great comments here and I appreciate reading the responses and the shared insight. @Jordan Moorhead @Ryan Kelly

@Joe Scaparra One of the metrics I have mentioned in prior posts is the actual PITI cost to the buyer may forecast a market bottom. The simplified theory looks at the holding cost for a median priced home between two time periods and when those costs mirror one another the bottom has been reached. To use numbers for the Austin MSA:

April 2022 the median home price was $550,000 ( market peak)

April 2022 interest rate: 5.975%

Monthly payment $3,739 (loan $2,631 | taxes and fees $1,108)

It is quite likely many April closings locked in at March rates, so let’s include those:

March 2022 interest rate: 5.328%

Monthly payment of $3,559 (loan $2,451 | taxes and fees $1,108)

October 2022 the median home price is $474,900

October interest rate: 7.2%

Monthly payment $3,550 (loan $2451 | taxes and fees $971)

And sure enough, a median price home costs a buyer each month nearly the same now as it did in April ($3,559 versus $3,550, a delta of only $9). The benefit now is that there is likely much more favorable terms for a buyer in October than with a contract written in March.

It is worth noting, this only holds value to the time periods analyzed. If you do not believe April was healthy snapshot for housing market activity then simply adjust the time frame comparisons.

All of this is subject to what lies ahead. If interest rates increase it will likely put further downward pressure on prices. However, as you mentioned Joe, many owners / potential sellers are holding on because they have far more advantageous terms with their current holding costs (interest rate, taxes, etc) and that creates more scarcity and can buck against decline.

Post: Tenant left bad smell. What to do?

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078

@Joseph Weisenbloom as @Melanie Thomas and @Tyler Fontaine have mentioned, Killz paint and Ozone machine does wonders.  If the smell is musty or at all resembles 'organic growth" (mold) then check the air handler, intake, duct lines, and filters.  @Joe Scaparra gave some detective level areas to look for clues  

Post: Please refer a Home inspector in Austin, Texas

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078

@Ramya Nomula look into HouseCheck for the Austin area

Post: October 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078

October 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

October 2022 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was a slight increase in median sales price from the preceding month and a 4% increase from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw no change in month to month median sale price from $555,000, and a 3% increase from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a change in median sale price from $470,000 to $474,990 a month to month increase of $4,990 and an 4% increase from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory for the MSA saw a slight increase month to month inventory from 3.1 months in September to 3.2 months for October, and a 2.2 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin saw a slight increase month to month inventory from 2.7 months in August to 2.8 months for September, and a 1.8 months increase over the preceding year.

I have been tracking the withdrawn and expired listings and have highlighted an acceleration with those data points. This metric was the highest we have seen in years for September with 1,506 withdrawn and October has surpassed that figure with 1,877 withdrawn or expired listings. That is 84% of the closed sales, which was 2,244 as reported by ABOR during that same timeframe.

The real estate market has a typical annual cycle approaching the winter months wherein housing activity tends to dwindle naturally each year. October saw a sharp decrease in new listings, down 13% for the MSA and 18% for the City of Austin. Combine this data with the increase of withdrawn sales and it may be more than a typical slow winter season and more akin with what market analysts have dubbed a seller’s strike.

The Federal Reserve holds tremendous sway over interest rates which in turn can affect home prices. The simple but not perfect math is that every 1% increase in interest rates translates to a 10% decrease in buying power. The Federal reserve may well keep on their path of raising interest rates but the laws of supply and demand hold true as well. As homes become less affordable there will be a natural counterbalance of increased renters if there is not equal sales volume. Especially in a growing market like Austin. Additional rate hikes will continue to put downward pressure on prices but watching trends this is the first month since April of this year where a continued decrease did not occur.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Post: Subletting Advice in ATX?

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078

@Candace Buckstead 

@Andrew Bang is spot on. You have to approach each owner / lessor and request subletting be allowed in your lease agreement. Often you have to give them solid terms (large deposit, higher monthly rent, long lease term, etc) to offset the potential risks. Most of them have language added to say "All Guests of Candace, LLC" or thereabouts. I have seen the best success in the Austin area targeting privately listed properties that have been sitting on the market a while. If there is professional property management in place they likely would not take that on but never hurts to ask.

Post: New to Austin and BiggerPockets

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078

@Wilson Vanhook @Zachary Ware

Unfortunately you have to check city by city to find restrictions.  The list below is current but subject to change:

The following cities do not actively prohibit STRs outside of HOA regulations:

Cedar Park, Round Rock, Georgetown, Pflugerville, Hutto, Manor, Taylor, Del Valle, Elgin, Kyle, Buda, Dripping Springs, Driftwood, Lago Vista, Wimberly, San Marcos

The following cities actively limit or have staunch STR restrictions:

Austin (almost impossible unless owner occupying the property)

Lakeway (cap on number of STR permits)

New Braunfels

Post: Biggest Surf Park in the World headed to Austin, TX

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078

@Jose Guerrero neither the article or the company website provide an exact location other than just south of the airport.  Looking at available land parcels in the southeast Austin area I highly suspect it will be between ABIA and the F1 track.  Worth noting the surf park is 12 acres alone but the entire development will sit on 400 acres and has a budget over $1 Billion.  With the F1 contract being extended through 2026 that could mean big things for this area.  F1 brings in more money to the Austin economy than SXSW or ACL, in fact an article in the ABJ pointed out the F1 event revenue generated is roughly twice that of the super bowl.  

I'll link that article here as well for anyone that is interested:

https://www.bizjournals.com/au...

Post: 1300 home neighborhood coming to Georgetown (N Austin)

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078

A new master planned community is coming to the Austin MSA.  The groundbreaking is set to start in the next few months and will eventually include 1300 homes.  The plans to allocate space for commercial use but it is not dedicated for multifamily use, likely meaning retail and restaurants.  The neighborhood amenities will include: pool, splash pad, playground, fitness center, pickleball court, and more. 

Georgetown is housed within Williamson country which has seen tremendous growth over the past decade, surpassing the national growth rate six fold.  

ABJ Article Link:

https://www.bizjournals.com/au...

Post: Biggest Surf Park in the World headed to Austin, TX

Bryan NothPosted
  • Realtor
  • Austin, TX
  • Posts 1,068
  • Votes 1,078
Surf Lakes signs agreement to build "biggest surf park development on the planet"

The 400-acre Pura Vida community will consist of restaurants, hotels, retail shopping and residential buildings with a 12-acre Surf Lake at its center.

A recent concept plan for Austin’s high adventure, mixed-use Pura Vida community (PHOTO: Surf Lakes)

According to the Surf Lakes website, the community will be located just south of Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, about 20 minutes from downtown.

The groundbreaking could happen as early as 2023, the company said. The land was purchased by local developers and zoning, water and wastewater entitlements have already been secured. The project has a Capex of roughly $1.3 billion.

Free Article link here:

https://cbsaustin.com/news/loc...

Company website link:

https://www.surflakes.com/news...