Why Do So Many Internet People Think that Society is About to Collapse?

[Scott Trench]

It seems to me that despite the near-constant protests to the contrary from certain people in the dark recesses of the internet, the tendency of large countries with powerful militaries is that they do not collapse. 

However, when I have conversations with perhaps the vast majority of other people in my friends group, and certainly in recesses of internet forums, subreddits, and facebook groups, the prevailing consensus is that I am crazy. 

I am told that the US debt creates imminent collapse. That political turmoil will result in a civil war. That income inequality will have see societal overhaul. That war in other parts of the world will trigger deglobalization and collapse. Etc. Etc. 

People literally believe this and plan their lives and investment approaches around it. 

These people who argue for collapse often point out things like: 

- Real Wages, adjusted for inflation, are going down over the decades. People today can't buy the same stuff they did 50 years ago (This is totally false).

- The US national debt is at some number that makes it untenable. (The US national debt is high, but not past the point of no return at a 5-6:1 debt to income ratio). 

- Income Inequality is spiraling (Income inequality rose substantially from 2000-2020. In the last few years, income inequality has actually decreased. I believe that this is due to (finally) rising interest rates deflating asset values, which is highly correlated to the exponential increases in income for top earners like CEOs, executives, money managers, RE investors, and Private Equity Groups.

To me, the only logical stance is "rational optimism" (I heard this term from Morgan Housel). There's always going to be a war, pestilence, famine, political power struggle, uprising, strike, terrorist threat, meteor, volcano, tusnami, or other disaster looming on the horizon - and it's impossible to state what the next cataclysm will be. But, at the same time, society marches on. People invent. People find creative new solutions. People optimize. Society finds solutions. Capitalism, and the United States, tends to see the standard of living of it's people increase over time. 

People will protest, scream, stamp, and tell me how wrong and privileged I am. How life is not better today than it was in 1950. 

That's fine. Maybe they are right and I'm missing something. 

But, I will continue to bet on a continued trajectory of progress in quality of life for most people in this country over the ensuing decades. While making sure my position in the near-term is well-fortified against near-term threats that can stop me from realizing the bounty that I believe is inevitable as we march into the future.

I look forward to being told I'm crazy. Tell me about it!

[Account Closed]

Quote from @Scott Trench:

It seems to me that despite the near-constant protests to the contrary from certain people in the dark recesses of the internet, the tendency of large countries with powerful militaries is that they do not collapse. 

However, when I have conversations with perhaps the vast majority of other people in my friends group, and certainly in recesses of internet forums, subreddits, and facebook groups, the prevailing consensus is that I am crazy. 

I am told that the US debt creates imminent collapse. That political turmoil will result in a civil war. That income inequality will have see societal overhaul. That war in other parts of the world will trigger deglobalization and collapse. Etc. Etc. 

People literally believe this and plan their lives and investment approaches around it. 

These people who argue for collapse often point out things like: 

- Real Wages, adjusted for inflation, are going down over the decades. People today can't buy the same stuff they did 50 years ago (This is totally false).

- The US national debt is at some number that makes it untenable. (The US national debt is high, but not past the point of no return at a 5-6:1 debt to income ratio). 

- Income Inequality is spiraling (Income inequality rose substantially from 2000-2020. In the last few years, income inequality has actually decreased. I believe that this is due to (finally) rising interest rates deflating asset values, which is highly correlated to the exponential increases in income for top earners like CEOs, executives, money managers, RE investors, and Private Equity Groups.

To me, the only logical stance is "rational optimism" (I heard this term from Morgan Housel). There's always going to be a war, pestilence, famine, political power struggle, uprising, strike, terrorist threat, meteor, volcano, tusnami, or other disaster looming on the horizon - and it's impossible to state what the next cataclysm will be. But, at the same time, society marches on. People invent. People find creative new solutions. People optimize. Society finds solutions. Capitalism, and the United States, tends to see the standard of living of it's people increase over time. 

People will protest, scream, stamp, and tell me how wrong and privileged I am. How life is not better today than it was in 1950. 

That's fine. Maybe they are right and I'm missing something. 

But, I will continue to bet on a continued trajectory of progress in quality of life for most people in this country over the ensuing decades. While making sure my position in the near-term is well-fortified against near-term threats that can stop me from realizing the bounty that I believe is inevitable as we march into the future.

I look forward to being told I'm crazy. Tell me about it!

The Soviet Union, "a large country with a powerful military, did collapse.
Rome, "a large country with a powerful military, did collapse.

Great Britain, "a large country with a powerful military, did collapse.
France, "a large country with a powerful military, did collapse.

Germany, "a large country with a powerful military, did collapse.
Spain, "a large country with a powerful military, did collapse.

There were two main reasons 1. Constant war 2. Inflating their money

Anyway, the people you've been talking to lack historical perspective. I was around when the vietnam protests would attract 500,000 people each, in multiple cities, in the same day, in the USA. When gas lines were two hours looong and you weren't allowed in that line except every other day. It was long before iPhones were avilable so it was a long boring wait. We actually read books to pas the time. 

And of course we were "going to end up being fried like a potato in nuclear holocaust", How do you plan your investing when everyone will be living in a Mad Max world. 

Yeah, I could go on and on, but the point is most people live in their "here and now" and that is what their reality is to them. Most people live pretty well, but the changes are real, it's just not that obvious yet.

[Mike Dymski]

(anti) social media

[Karl B.]

The USA is 34.5 trillion in debt. That's problem number one. 

Problem number two is the USA weaponized the dollar and now BRICS has taken form. And although it would take time for BRICS to dethrone the US dollar it's just a matter of time. 

What's more appealing to a random country? The US dollar which is diluted and loses more value each and every year, or a new currency that's backed by gold? 

Now - and I'm not going to get too political but simply state facts - we have an open border and LOTS of people have come in. And although most are not terrorists we do have lots and lots of people from countries who are considered adversaries who have entered here and are of military age. 

At any point any of these bad actors - whom this country likely has no clue who they are or what their intentions are - can do something drastic not limited to attacking our power grid; and most Americans aren't prepared for no electricity. Much of their food would spoil and they'd be hungry, and most people don't have a proper stock of food and what do you think people will do when they're really, really hungry? They'll take food by any means necessary. Just look at how people went crazy over grocery store items during Covid - not limited to toilet paper and bleach. Just wait until it's food that's hard to come by!

A lot of people bury their head in the sand as they would rather ignore what's coming and pretend everything is fine VS prepare for it. It's like a person who has serious stomach issues but refuses to go to the doctor because they're afraid they'll be given a terminal diagnosis.

[Bill B.]

Aren’t Russia and China two large parts of BRICS? Do you really think people would rather have rubles or Yuan than dollars? Do you think they don’t inflate their currency? They certainly aren’t “backed by gold”. We’re 23 years in to BRICS being the “next big thing”. I think they were closer 20 years ago than today. 

Last I heard TICKS had replaced BRICS 8 years ago. 

Real estate is basically income producing gold to fight inflation and in an end of the world scenario you could replace gold with guns/ammo/canned food. All of which produce the same return without a 10% cost of buying and selling. Plus they’re actually worth something if you’re buying for the apocalypse. Who’s going to trade you own gun and one bullet for a pound of gold?

Ps. You think the end of the world people are nuts, talk to a climate emergency freak. 

[Chris Seveney]

You did not mention AI robots will kill us all and take over the world anyways

[V.G Jason]

Internal & external war and currency devaluation did ruin every great empire. That's not to say history will repeat itself, but as days go by everyone's got a heightened sense about money and more so since covid. Then the wars don't calm anyone's nerves.

The average person in america is very pessimistic, whether it's about their future, America's, or both. For some, I cannot disagree with them. For most, my stance is good luck finding it better elsewhere as life is relative.

Just focus on what you can control and most of it is then irrelevant. 

[John Morgan]

Fear sells. Look at all the YouTube videos these doomers and crash bros have put out over the last 4 years. They've been talking about a major housing crash for the last 4 or 5 years. Most of those tools don't even own any real estate but act like experts. lol. They have been wrong year after year due to supply and demand. It's normal for us to fear things, so we listen to those people occasionally and almost believe them at times. I've bought 10 buy n hold SFR in the last year that cash flow. My strategy hasn't changed due to our national debt, high interest rates or potential for a recession. I've been dollar cost averaging with real estate over the last 9 years buying 2 houses a year to rent out. I'll continue to buy in good times and bad. But have ramped it up a little more the last two years while the doomers have scared most investors to sit it out with their fear grenades. Good for me since I have much less competition. I still think RE will go up over the next 10-20 years and rent will rise with inflation. I could be wrong, but it's a risk I'm willing to take vs putting all my investments in the stock market, hoping it stays high when I retire some day.

[Lynn McGeein]

@Scott Trench I have family members who believe we’re failing, I guess it’s called “preppers”, they’ll call very concerned to let us know to take cash out for a bank run or stock up as food will be scarce next month or the last one was the eclipse was going to cause an earthquake taking out the Midwest. I think there has just always been a portion of the population throughout history that has a fascination with this stuff. I take it positively that they care enough to worry about us, but it must be sad living with that much anxiety. I like that line from Mother Teresa, “what you spend years creating, others can destroy overnight. Create anyway” We cant live life waiting for the next disaster, natural, economic, political, etc. We just try to build a safe happy life knowing it could be gone in an instant. But we’ll have fun until then.

[Henry T.]

About to? It's already here! Walk thru Seattle, Zombies everywhere!

[John Barrett]

@Scott Trench I think human nature makes it is easier for people to be more pessimistic than optimistic (survival bias).  COVID greatly impacted what people perceive and feel about their economic situation in general. This has been combined with reduced purchasing power and a run up in asset prices as a result of high inflation. People are still dealing with the challenges from COVID, government policy responses and the inflation that resulted.
 
Behavioral economics tells us people experience the pain of losses twice as much as gains. People are experience real pain but I think psychology is really what's driving the doom narrative.  No doubt social media algorithms are also making it look like this view of the world is more prevalent.

All I know is that you can bet on the end of the world, but you can only be right once and you can never collect.  As such, betting on the end of the world may be a popular narrative but, it's not a sustainable strategy. Acquiring knowledge boosts confidence in our convictions and enables you to invest even in the face of uncertainty.

John

[Mike Terry]

I think the national leadership situation also contributes.  This once proud nation is going to led by either a immoral and corrupt, self-serving, con man or a less than effective senior citizen that even the most partisan supporter is concerned he will make it through a 4 year term.  The divisive nature of our politics and the loud but nasty minority are bullying the majority of good americans.  There seems to be little concern for the average american. the extremes on both sides of the political spectrum are tearing the country apart. The only issue I have seen any agreement on is that most don't want either of these leaders in the Whitehouse.

[Theresa Harris]

A few great points raised

Lynn said "from Mother Teresa, “what you spend years creating, others can destroy overnight. Create anyway” We cant live life waiting for the next disaster, natural, economic, political, etc. We just try to build a safe happy life knowing it could be gone in an instant. But we’ll have fun until then."

V.G "Just focus on what you can control and most of it is then irrelevant."

And Mike's point about social media (or anti social media).  

We don't have a lot of control over the world, we have more control over our small part of it.  People like good stories and all you have to do is watch the news or social media to see that people like to exaggerate or focus on the problems.  There is also a lot of good out there.  I think we need to do more to help the make our little part of the world better-help those who are less fortunate and struggling to have a better life even if it is something that may seem minor to you or make someone's day better (buy the person behind you in a line up a cup of coffee, shovel someone's sidewalk in the winter).  

[Shafi Noss]

Quote from @Scott Trench:

It seems to me that despite the near-constant protests to the contrary from certain people in the dark recesses of the internet, the tendency of large countries with powerful militaries is that they do not collapse. 

However, when I have conversations with perhaps the vast majority of other people in my friends group, and certainly in recesses of internet forums, subreddits, and facebook groups, the prevailing consensus is that I am crazy. 

I am told that the US debt creates imminent collapse. That political turmoil will result in a civil war. That income inequality will have see societal overhaul. That war in other parts of the world will trigger deglobalization and collapse. Etc. Etc. 

People literally believe this and plan their lives and investment approaches around it. 

These people who argue for collapse often point out things like: 

- Real Wages, adjusted for inflation, are going down over the decades. People today can't buy the same stuff they did 50 years ago (This is totally false).

- The US national debt is at some number that makes it untenable. (The US national debt is high, but not past the point of no return at a 5-6:1 debt to income ratio). 

- Income Inequality is spiraling (Income inequality rose substantially from 2000-2020. In the last few years, income inequality has actually decreased. I believe that this is due to (finally) rising interest rates deflating asset values, which is highly correlated to the exponential increases in income for top earners like CEOs, executives, money managers, RE investors, and Private Equity Groups.

To me, the only logical stance is "rational optimism" (I heard this term from Morgan Housel). There's always going to be a war, pestilence, famine, political power struggle, uprising, strike, terrorist threat, meteor, volcano, tusnami, or other disaster looming on the horizon - and it's impossible to state what the next cataclysm will be. But, at the same time, society marches on. People invent. People find creative new solutions. People optimize. Society finds solutions. Capitalism, and the United States, tends to see the standard of living of it's people increase over time. 

People will protest, scream, stamp, and tell me how wrong and privileged I am. How life is not better today than it was in 1950. 

That's fine. Maybe they are right and I'm missing something. 

But, I will continue to bet on a continued trajectory of progress in quality of life for most people in this country over the ensuing decades. While making sure my position in the near-term is well-fortified against near-term threats that can stop me from realizing the bounty that I believe is inevitable as we march into the future.

I look forward to being told I'm crazy. Tell me about it!

 People through evolution were designed for a world where things often did collapse and stability was the exception. Even though the world is different now, our brains aren't. 

Seeing disaster is all too human, just like belief in the supernatural, or a gloomy disposition even when things are alright. Many people are just born to see the world that way. In a way that makes us the crazy ones, and lucky to be so. 

And don't worry, if you want to be told you're crazy, no better place to grant your wish than the internet.

[Linda Roth]

Many do collapse.  Listen to Ray Dalio on the history of this happening.  Right now, I think people should be paying down their debt.