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All Forum Posts by: Mike Terry

Mike Terry has started 36 posts and replied 257 times.

Post: Mass deportations: will it affect rental markets?

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Alex Silang:

There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.


I think it will have little impact on housing for several reasons. First I do not think there will be seven figures of people removed from the country. Secondly, if it does have an impact it will be contained to areas more to the southern borders than it would in Michigan, Massachusetts or say washington dc (just using those states as an example but northern states and higher priced areas typically have lower populations of undocumented people). 

I think housing has a lot more other concerns ongoing than this, but this issue could also have a very slight impact that tied to the other 50 issues that housing has right now I am sure it will be used for political purposes. 

Housing main issues are permitting, cost to build, ROI projections, and availability in areas that have zero infrastructure to set up to acquire demand.

I read somewhere on here before about people disagreeing there is a housing short. That there's plenty of properties in the middle of the MW available & affordable. That's right and wrong.

There's a housing short, where it counts. It doesn't count if no one can qualify being there. If companies require you in office, and the companies are based in cities where housing is becoming unaffordable then inherently from a supply-demand mechanism-- there's a short. 

For housing to really be addressed, there needs to be way less tape to set up ground up construction yet stricter rules on actual build quality not necessarily code. Then a hiring increase for local regulation officials or private sector to assess housing quality & approve it. Then, there needs to be an incentive for builder and developers to build starter homes not mcmansions. This needs to happen in the cities with demand and in the cities that have no demand, but only after there's incentive for companies to grow in those cities.

If you're a small cap company with less than 5,000 employees, limited debt, then these cities in the middle of Arkansas, Ohio, some other **** state, need to incentivize you to come here and move/create your HQ here. Force a build out, bring demand!


 I live in Florida and hold properties in Southern Georgia.  We have had a lot construction work recently and all of the people doing the work are Hispanic, don't speak English, due to hurricane damage.  They do great work are very warm and friendly.  If this is representative of the construction industry around other markets in the nation and assuming many of these workers are undocumented (they may very well be legally working here, but having been through the immigration process myself, that would be difficult) the impact on construction would be massive.  So like my original post the federal government does not have the operational ability our financial backing to accomplish deporting 11MM people.

Post: Mass deportations: will it affect rental markets?

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255
Quote from @V.G Jason:

From my understanding deportation will work this way;

1) Removal of all incarcerated illegal immigrants.
2) Removal of illegal immigrants with a violent and multiple offenses within a criminal  record
3) Removal of all illegal immigrants with any criminal record.
4) Removal of single male illegal immigrants-- no families will be deported.

Expectations are expected to be about 1.3MM of deportation--including the first 500k in 2025.

This is just the policy I was briefed on. I think expectations on it impacting inflation is overstated if this is the case, and it breaking the country's back too. It's likely we will be net positive immigrants.

Much like tariffs, from what I have heard versus what I have read are vastly different. 

I trust my sources, but then again it could be completely off. 


 #4 is a pipe dream!!! will never happen, but we will see.

Post: Mass deportations: will it affect rental markets?

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Quote from @Mike Terry:
Quote from @Alex Silang:

There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.


 The country has massive debts and deficits.  Our federal government, operationally does not function very effectively and certainly not efficiently.  The cost to remove just one illegal will be in the thousands and way the government operates probably 100's of thousands of dollars.  I don't see any possible way to accomplish this goal.  The last Trump administration was much more show and bluster than it was effective at implementing policy.  They successful cut taxes and loosened IRS enforcement.  That was accomplished with the stroke of a pen.  They unleashed pandemic handouts and loan programs that greased the economy (this was not well thought out, contributed to the inflationary environment we are still suffering from and PPP and ERP loans were flooded with fraudulent loans and benefits)
These programs leveraged existing corporate infrastructure (banks and the government had little or no operational involvement).  The big difference here is some federal state or local agencies will have to be redeployed to take on this task creating a lack of services in the areas they were already operating.  This will create more costs.  Apprehended illegals will still be afforded due process (I presume since this is constitutionally protected for everyone in the United States).  Anything requiring court or judicial decisioning is extremely slow.  So we will be housing feeding and detaining millions of people for well beyond the Trump presidency.  I suspect this is mostly campaign rhetoric that was popular with the current anti immigrant xenophobia that grew out of the pandemic both here and internationally and won the election, but the governments ability to achieve any real change in the population of illegals in this country would be very out of character.   There will be some showy roundup of few immigrants (most likely only in Blue State, because every act of both parties right now is to be punitive to the citizens of the states that oppose the current administration), they will go after people with removal orders already in place, have a couple of press conferences and go back to improving their own personal economic situations.  I hope I am wrong, but the above scenario more closely fits how the government operated in Trump first 4 years. 

PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk.  I am not a democrat, just a realist. I often think we forgot we the voters are responsible for all of this.  We elected Trump the first time, elected Biden to relieve ourselves of the chaos of his first presidency and now reelected him because he promised he would lower the cost of eggs by pumping more oil.  The binary choice was not a good one, but I wouldn't anticipate some remarkable improvement of fiscal responsibility or operational efficiency in this second act.

Before I post, remember all - you can talk policy but not denigration of parties/personalities.

I think your points are well stated. The logistics of removing that many people en masse are pretty impossible. More possible is reducing immigration to a net zero or negative number over time, which would have essentially the same effect as mass deportation but over a longer, controlled timeline. I think the short term effect on rents is virtually zero - illegal immigrants usually live multiple numbers to a home, rather than everyone having their own space like Americans - but longer term there may be some softness at the bottom levels of rentals. 

i would be more concerned about the lower economic job market than I would be about rental housing. Talk to any business owner of the heavy, hard manual labor jobs and they will all tell you the same thing - it's almost impossible to get Americans to work these jobs at any salary, much less one that a company can afford to pay. People are just going to have to get used to paying higher prices for stuff like that. That may not necessarily be a bad thing, just reality.

I agree 5 mil undocumented are living Pad split style so that might equate to 1 mil units and this will be highly regional.  Agreed the biggest issue will be labor especially on the west coast and say Texas were Hispanic labor makes up HUGE portions of the manual labor force and Agricultural.. your not going to get born and breed US citizens to work in the fields picking fruit .. Growing up on one of the Ranch's in Northern Ca my dad bought to develop 2k acres. We had 150 acres of walnuts.. And every year the same families came up from Mexico to do the harvesting for us and then returned . Very nice people and always brought us gifts :)

As a home builder ( small time 20 or so a year) I look at my sub base and if I start at survey and work through the house here is the demographic.. Survey  white  dig out white owned hispanic labor on the machine and holding the survey levels.  Foundation white owned hispanic setting forms and pouring. Plumbing White owned white workers. Electrical white owned white workers ( licensed electrians). Framer white owned white workers but sub to hispanic company to do the second story and the truss's. Roof white owned all hispanic.. hvac white owned white workers. dry wall  white owned all hispanic  insulation white owned all hispanic.. flat work hispanic owned all  hispanic workers,  floors and tile  Eastern block owned Eastern block workers speak no english do incredible work. Painters hispanic owned hispanic workers Landscape hispanic owned hispanic workers  final clean Eastern block owned eastern block ladies speak no english. Window was hispanic owned hispanic labor.

How many are undocumented I dont know.. but I can tell you all of our labor trades are the nicest guys work with smile and will do any little task my wife and I may ask of them. These are hard working guys and gals providing for their families.. Hopefully though the fed will get rid of the gang bangers and the MS 13 and other really bad folks.

No way your going to round up 10 mil people logistics wont allow it even if it was like world war 2 internment camps for the Japanese.

 Great insight thanks!

Post: Mass deportations: will it affect rental markets?

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255

thanks JD.  How about that some reasonable non political discourse without labelling and name calling.  There is hope for America!!! sarcasm aside, thank you for your thoughts. Good perspective.

Post: Mass deportations: will it affect rental markets?

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255
Quote from @Alex Silang:

There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.


 The country has massive debts and deficits.  Our federal government, operationally does not function very effectively and certainly not efficiently.  The cost to remove just one illegal will be in the thousands and way the government operates probably 100's of thousands of dollars.  I don't see any possible way to accomplish this goal.  The last Trump administration was much more show and bluster than it was effective at implementing policy.  They successful cut taxes and loosened IRS enforcement.  That was accomplished with the stroke of a pen.  They unleashed pandemic handouts and loan programs that greased the economy (this was not well thought out, contributed to the inflationary environment we are still suffering from and PPP and ERP loans were flooded with fraudulent loans and benefits)
These programs leveraged existing corporate infrastructure (banks and the government had little or no operational involvement).  The big difference here is some federal state or local agencies will have to be redeployed to take on this task creating a lack of services in the areas they were already operating.  This will create more costs.  Apprehended illegals will still be afforded due process (I presume since this is constitutionally protected for everyone in the United States).  Anything requiring court or judicial decisioning is extremely slow.  So we will be housing feeding and detaining millions of people for well beyond the Trump presidency.  I suspect this is mostly campaign rhetoric that was popular with the current anti immigrant xenophobia that grew out of the pandemic both here and internationally and won the election, but the governments ability to achieve any real change in the population of illegals in this country would be very out of character.   There will be some showy roundup of few immigrants (most likely only in Blue State, because every act of both parties right now is to be punitive to the citizens of the states that oppose the current administration), they will go after people with removal orders already in place, have a couple of press conferences and go back to improving their own personal economic situations.  I hope I am wrong, but the above scenario more closely fits how the government operated in Trump first 4 years. 

PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk.  I am not a democrat, just a realist. I often think we forgot we the voters are responsible for all of this.  We elected Trump the first time, elected Biden to relieve ourselves of the chaos of his first presidency and now reelected him because he promised he would lower the cost of eggs by pumping more oil.  The binary choice was not a good one, but I wouldn't anticipate some remarkable improvement of fiscal responsibility or operational efficiency in this second act.

Post: Thinking of a career change

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255
Quote from @James Sills:

I am looking at changing careers as soon as possible to something that can help my real estate investing aspirations. Would it be a good idea to get a real estate license and work in real estate or are there other options to get in Missouri to get real estate experience without a license?


I am a career changer. I went from Teaching to Coaching college basketball to executive recruiting (headhunting). It has been a rewarding journey and the transition from salaried employee to 100% commission was scary but has been rewarding and I have been able to surpass my highest W@ in coaching with my new role. I think I was fortunate to find a roll outside of real estate to diversify my income across two different sectors of the economy. I often read that one should seek a commissioned sales role because your comp is uncapped and that has served me well. I think the key to getting a good start in REI is finding a way to have a high 9 to 5 income and using a good portion of it invest in your real estate endeavors. Good luck!!!

Good luck with your adventure!!!



Good luck with your adventure!!!

Post: Help Evaluating a small multifamily

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255
Quote from @Caleb Brown:

Someone else asked but what would market rents be including the extra storage? I know you said $5,400 but is that the correct monthly rent(total)? That seems low with the 5 units and storage you mentioned unless they are 1 bed units. One other question is the financing part, have you talked to lenders on lending on this? These interesting scenarios are usually harder to lend on. Could be tricky and expensive to do. You also mentioned meters, do you have to separate meters, get approval from the city and pull permits? That could add up quickly and might be difficult to do. From the numbers perspective it seems like it can pencil out depending on the rehab budget. It's hard to say offer amount without knowing the rehab part since that could blow this out the water. 


 Caleb,

currently the 2 6x6 storage units  are rented to tenants for 25$ each.  I don't know if that is included in the total rent numbers the owner supplied.  The three single car garage spaces are vacant and not durrently being utilized and can be monetized through rent.

Post: Help Evaluating a small multifamily

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255
Quote from @Drew Sygit:

@Mike Terry your post is confusing!

You state there's a lot of deferred maintenance, then state it is a remarkably well maintained property. Which is it?

What is the difference between the Taxable Value and the SEV value? 
- The percentage difference is the percentage the taxes will go up after you buy it.

What do you mean by the property has HVAC AND boilers? 
- Usually a 5 unit with a boiler means that all the units share the boiler heating system.

Which specific utilities in which units are paid by tenants vs shared?
- Highly unlikely you'll be able to get separate water meters installed and submeter system probably too expensive for this few of units.
- So, that leaves electric & gas. If all the units are sharing a gas-fed boiler, how are you going to separate that?
- Are the unit stoves electric or gas?

What are market rents? How much below market are current rents?

How do you think the 2 relatives will feel about having their rent raised or being required to pay rent period? What problems with the other tenants (who they likely know well) could they cause?

DM me if you want to discuss more...


 Thank you for your response.  What I was trying to say in my response is the units will be easily move in ready on delivery of the property.  The deferral is all on major capital expenditures, roofs, HVAC, Water heaters.  sorry if that was confusing.  The property has forced air furnace in one unit, two boilers heat the other four units.  One unit has central air and the rest have window until AC's

Some units have gas stoves and water heaters some have electric.

rents are at market.  The relatives are vacating. only 1 tenant wants to stay through ownership change.

Post: Help Evaluating a small multifamily

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255
Quote from @Shawn Ackerman:

@Mike Terry I think you need to stick to the script. Rent, Expenses, NOI, Cash Flow, COCR, Cap Rate, Market cap rate. Take the emotions out of it and evaluate on what the deal is telling you.

Good luck!


 Good advice.  I'm not really prone to emotional thinking.  No to worried about that.  I am just trying to wrap my head around at what purchase price does this property cash flow.  I am starting to think it is such a low number that the owner will never accept.  OR I am missing something.

Post: Help Evaluating a small multifamily

Mike Terry
Pro Member
Posted
  • Investor
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 273
  • Votes 255

Hi Jaycee,

The owners occupy two of the 5 units.  My guess is they have low level of book keeping sophistication.  What I have are the rents of the 3 tenant occupied units, the owner supplied projected rents for the other two units and a hokey formula on parsing out utilities for the units that are not separately metered.  With my own portfolio I generally underwrite with 10% for repairs, 10% for cap ex, 5 percent for vacancy.  So your 35% operating expenses makes sense and seem plenty conservative to me.