Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Not sure which people you are talking about. I never made any arbitrary "x months of inventory" claims. It's completely possible for prices to significantly decrease even if "months of inventory" doesn't hit the magic number of 6 or whatever.   

I've maintained that this is going to take time, and be a slow collapse of the housing market, which we're seeing in real-time. 

We've still yet to see the full impacts of inflation, mass layoffs, and other negative economic factors. 

 so greg, you have the data but you fail to understand or to misinterpret the data. 

you may want to analyze from 3d dimension. 

Long before there's crisis , it's widely known that the house price would crash only if 6 months inventory is reached. Existing home do NOT reach this level yet, but NEW HOME yes, new home actually around 8 months inventory. It's the reason why builder is delaying releasing their house to the market, almost everyone is delaying their sell. It's common strategy now.

The effect of this is that, newer house/condo is getting higher bid rather than older house as long as the price is correct. I've seen a new pattern lately.  

What I see from all these data is yes, there's a crash, but only to specific markets. It's not a uniform market.

We have listing where the sold price is way above listing price. It's all over the place. This is like three different markets LOL 

it's liquidity that really matters here, agree with you some market would just collapse and other market would behave entirely different.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

 like i said, no increase of inventory in major CA city lol,

Just because inventory has been flat the last few months doesn't negate the fact that it more than doubled since Feb 2022. 

[Jordan Moorhead]

@Greg R. but at the same time just because it's doubled doesn't mean we have enough. I do think we may see prices go down a lot in certain markets but the country as a whole still doesn't have near enough housing.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

If you see the insight data, only the following city has triple digit active inventory YoY

Austin
Vegas
Nashville
Phoenix
Northwest
Jacksonville

Other city is pretty much regressed to 2020 inventory level.

 DFW?

 Albuquerque, NM?

 Oklahoma City?

 Nashville? 

Boston, MA?

Bottom line, inventory is up almost across the board. Yes, some places more than others - of course. However, the deniers were saying that when rates rose and buyers became skeptical that sellers would simply pull out and inventory would tank. However, the opposite has happened - inventory has risen.

@Greg R.

 Who said inventory would tank (besides James and I don't believe he ever used those words)? I said inventory would remain tight. Historically it's still tight hence why all of the East Coast while volume is way down, inventory is up from COVID levels (we all knew it would go up so this tank is hilarious) yes but it's still historically low and at a healthy level. 

Hence the stagnation on east coast. And if you go back to my predictions (where I said no crash outside of key markets like West, Austin etc..) that we would see lower sales volumes (100% seeing that everywhere), low inventory (it still is) and if you look at inventory after the initial increase from the April/May time frame. it's been flat inventory last few months in almost all markets you even showed. 

So frankly seems like none of those predictions are really far off. Unless it goes up again by that amount in summer. Also I don't believe what you are using is seasonly adjusted. Is it? If not then that's something else to consider considering time of year. 

I'm not going to search through 2,700 posts but several of the deniers have made the claim. Volume is down primarily because of rates and inflated costs. Many deniers said that rather than dropping the price, sellers would withdraw from the market, which would tank inventory levels. That clearly didn't happen. Inventory is rising and costs are coming down. 

Of the markets I showed all are still increasing. The only one that's been flat is LA. They are not all going to increase rapidly, but the trend is up and that's very clear. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

 like i said, no increase of inventory in major CA city lol,

Just because inventory has been flat the last few months doesn't negate the fact that it more than doubled since Feb 2022. 

 it doubles then what LOL. It doesn't really proof anything. It only says housing is expensive before and now it's reverting to the mean PRECISELY LIKE EXPECTED.

you are saying something like a gravity , if you throw a rock of course it would fall to the ground LOL 

the good thing referring to LA market above, between june 2022 to now, there's no increase of inventory, it flats. that's what matters 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

I'm not going to search through 2,700 posts but several of the deniers have made the claim. Volume is down primarily because of rates and inflated costs. Many deniers said that rather than dropping the price, sellers would withdraw from the market, which would tank inventory levels. That clearly didn't happen. Inventory is rising and costs are coming down. 

Of the markets I showed all are still increasing. The only one that's been flat is LA. They are not all going to increase rapidly, but the trend is up and that's very clear. 

if you check redfin "new listing" in 2022 , you would find the chart that "aggregate supply" in 2022 is way lower than "aggregate supply" within 2019-2021 era, that's indication where "seller is delaying selling" and would like to keep their mortgage rate as long as possible. 

this market is created primarily for owner occupant and no-longer investor friendly for now.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

If you see the insight data, only the following city has triple digit active inventory YoY

Austin
Vegas
Nashville
Phoenix
Northwest
Jacksonville

Other city is pretty much regressed to 2020 inventory level.

 DFW?

 Albuquerque, NM?

 Oklahoma City?

 Nashville? 

all the chart that you shown here is an indication of "consolidation" market like @James Hamling said before where buyer and seller is almost trying to find new price discovery. There's no increase in inventory since jun 2022, it's a very very mild increase of inventory which is expected, what you need to see is the rate of increase per month between Q1-Q2 and Q3-Q4 of 2022 which is very slow. 

I used to expect way worse than this back in august. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

I'm not going to search through 2,700 posts but several of the deniers have made the claim. Volume is down primarily because of rates and inflated costs. Many deniers said that rather than dropping the price, sellers would withdraw from the market, which would tank inventory levels. That clearly didn't happen. Inventory is rising and costs are coming down. 

Of the markets I showed all are still increasing. The only one that's been flat is LA. They are not all going to increase rapidly, but the trend is up and that's very clear. 

if you check redfin "new listing" in 2022 , you would find the chart that "aggregate supply" in 2022 is way lower than "aggregate supply" within 2019-2021 era, that's indication where "seller is delaying selling" and would like to keep their mortgage rate as long as possible. 

this market is created primarily for owner occupant and no-longer investor friendly for now.

@Carlos Ptriawan exactly. This is the point. There is not a single person in this entire thread who said definitively 2021-2022 growth levels would sustain and inventory would stay that low. And yet @Greg R. is acting like it is. 

Almost universally over summer/September people were saying inventory would remain “historically” tight. Especially because builders have cut back dramatically. Every aspect of that has happened.

Now there are a few macro level reason to believe more things could fall but generally speaking stagnation seems to be the key. Low inventory (not covid low) and low volumes = little volatility in price in “many but not all” markets.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Carlos Ptriawan exactly. This is the point. There is not a single person in this entire thread who said definitively 2021-2022 growth levels would sustain and inventory would stay that low. And yet @Greg R. is acting like it is. 

Almost universally over summer/September people were saying inventory would remain “historically” tight. Especially because builders have cut back dramatically. Every aspect of that has happened.

Now there are a few macro level reason to believe more things could fall but generally speaking stagnation seems to be the key. Low inventory (not covid low) and low volumes = little volatility in price in “many but not all” markets.

 i think what really happened here is because we have differences in our backgrounds, my job as a professional data junkie for the last 3 decades interprets this data in 5 seconds what's actually going on, why someone else may be have different background, and would like their (bear) thesis to be confirmed by others.

it is like discussion in yahoo finance in 2000 whether qualcomm is good to be long or shorted lol  hahaha

all these thing that greg forward just strongly indicated we are going into consolidation market with bottom already seen. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Carlos Ptriawan exactly. This is the point. There is not a single person in this entire thread who said definitively 2021-2022 growth levels would sustain and inventory would stay that low. And yet @Greg R. is acting like it is. 

Almost universally over summer/September people were saying inventory would remain “historically” tight. Especially because builders have cut back dramatically. Every aspect of that has happened.

Now there are a few macro level reason to believe more things could fall but generally speaking stagnation seems to be the key. Low inventory (not covid low) and low volumes = little volatility in price in “many but not all” markets.

 i think what really happened here is because we have differences in our backgrounds, my job as a professional data junkie for the last 3 decades interprets this data in 5 seconds what's actually going on, why someone else may be have different background, and would like their (bear) thesis to be confirmed by others.

it is like discussion in yahoo finance in 2000 whether qualcomm is good to be long or shorted lol  hahaha

all these thing that greg forward just strongly indicated we are going into consolidation market with bottom already seen. 

 Your being too generous Carlos. The 3 of us (Carlos, Michael & Myself) have been rather consistent in what we have been saying if not absolutely resolute, and most importantly, very detailed in every facet, very clear transparent in every facet of our messaging. Yet, some on here have mis-quoted, misrepresented and just plain out right lied stating ridiculous statements none of us ever made, for example that things will continue the rocket-ride up in perpetuity. 

That level of incorrect is not a mistake, it's intentional, and with malicious intent. Sorry, I don't afford any consideration to those Trolls. yes, there morons and idiots of various degrees, without doubt, but it's not the source of there misrepresentations or distortions, they are just dirt bags and that's why they do that. A life of lies is a sorry state of existence. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

 like i said, no increase of inventory in major CA city lol,

Just because inventory has been flat the last few months doesn't negate the fact that it more than doubled since Feb 2022. 

 it doubles then what LOL. It doesn't really proof anything. It only says housing is expensive before and now it's reverting to the mean PRECISELY LIKE EXPECTED.

you are saying something like a gravity , if you throw a rock of course it would fall to the ground LOL 

the good thing referring to LA market above, between june 2022 to now, there's no increase of inventory, it flats. that's what matters 

 Greg, inventory has NOT doubled EVERYWHERE. 

Yes, you can find "A" market where it doubled, great. NATIONALLY inventory is, for most part, FALLING in lock-step with the VELOCITY decline. This is why the Pricing Vector is for most part, dead flat. 

Greg, your prediction that people would, in mass, sell-off there properties for pennies on the dollar just because, is CLEARLY NOT HAPPENING. I don't understand why you can't simply own this very basic and obvious fact. Denying it does you no-service, none, it simply lowers the value of anything you say because, as mentioned, this is just a fact now. 

People are doing just as I forecasted, holding fast, because they can. The data was clear of the mass volume of persons in sub 4% mortgages, there not selling, there not going anywhere, your gonna have to use a freakin wrecking ball to force them out. 

So somewhere around page 40'ish or so I went into the details of mechanics of all this, how it would work ,how consumer psychology plays a major role in this for there actions, and how the front-loading of net shortage primes for market resistance to a significant volume decline. And here we are, it has come to pass. 

So i don't get it, why double down on a clearly incorrect assumption? 

The only "crash" is a volume one, and that already completed. NOW, we are stepping into "acceptance". yes, much like the stages of grief, there is a processing consumers go through. We are in bargaining, and moving into acceptance. With this transition, volume will start to stabilize most likely in early Q2. And barring some meddling, a more normalized market. ALTHOUGH in this "new" market, 40% of those who could have been buyers a couple/few years ago will now be renters. 

And the divide between the haves and have not's got another couple miles wider. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

 So your saying, when we are at WAR with China, no-way no-how is manufacturing and trade relations going to shift to S. America? That is, yet again, one heck of a ignorant thought path. 

why in the world the so-called strongest country in the world has to have a war with a country that is having a very productive economy?

what kind of issue are people trying to solve?

another colonial mindset? LOL

 Imperialism. Or some version of it. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Bottom line, inventory is up almost across the board. Yes, some places more than others - of course. However, the deniers were saying that when rates rose and buyers became skeptical that sellers would simply pull out and inventory would tank. However, the opposite has happened - inventory has risen.

 I am SO exhausted of LIES! SHOW ME THE DATA! Because I will show the date here below as PROOF your 100% WRONG! That now, inventory is NOT doubling "everywhere coast to coast". You literally just make this sh#t up and just say it, which is based on NOTHING but your FEELINGS. This is what, the 3rd time now I have done a data dump that 100% DISPROVES what your out here saying is so 100% fact "Coast To Coast", and it's not, it's JUST your slice of crappy CA. MOVE!

Months of supply at RECORD lows over last 10yrs. 

Days on market all but dead flat at RECORD 10yr low

NEW LISTINGS, yeah, let's look at that, HOW did people react to the rate increases in '22'. WOW, look at that, new listings volume feel off a cliff, RECORD low. Huh, looks like people decided to NOT sell as reaction to high rates. 

Oh but Greg says everyone will get pennies on the dollar for there homes. Are we shocked that reality is 100% opposite what Greg says? 

TOTAL market dollar volume. Yes, we see the volume reduction right there when rates shot up, yup. 

And price per sqft STILL making RECORD highs, STILL, each and every month INCLUDING Dec '22'. 

See, the above is what DATA based forecasting looks like, I use actual DATA, math, FACTS to make forecasts. Please Greg, feel free to use actual facts vs your feelings. 

[Brandon Rabe]

"own nothing and be happy" 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

this is for @Michael Wooldridge , this may explain your curiosity of the stability of Florida market.

From Redfin and pls read it carefully:

>>>>

• • Supply: Active listings of luxury homes rose in 21 metros, with the biggest increases in Austin, TX (51% YoY), Denver (50.1%), Nashville (35.7%), Warren, MI (29.8%) and Atlanta (25.9%). The largest declines were in San Jose (-32.2%), Anaheim (-22.5%), Los Angeles (-19.4%), St. Louis (-18.5%) and Miami (-16.6%).

• • New listings: New listings of luxury homes fell in 39 metros. The biggest declines were in San Jose (-39.2% YoY), Oakland, CA (-37.1%), Anaheim (-29.8%), San Diego (-26.2%) and Orlando, FL (-25.9%) The largest gains were in Denver (44%), Warren (32.4%), Austin (20.2%), Detroit (16.3%) and Atlanta (15%).

• • Prices: The median sale price of luxury homes rose in all but one metro—San Jose (-0.3% YoY). The biggest jumps were in Miami (28.1%), Tampa, FL (27.7%), Charlotte (25%), West Palm Beach, FL (25%) and Orlando (23.7%). The smallest increases were in San Francisco (0.1%), Nassau County (2.1%), Oakland (3.1%) and Portland, OR (5.8%).

>>>

summary:

Luxury Florida house is not impacted by the Recession.

While the recession impacted the luxury market in San Jose, the impact on inventory seems minimal.

IT IS the Luxury houses in Austin, Denver, and Nashville that cause the inventory to increase.


See every city behaves very differently.  Please Just invest in Ohio LOL !

[David Oldenburg]

I think the real estate market gets worse later in 2023. This is due to consumers treading water financially and this has been going on for 2 years and they are out of money. I have a relative who works for a large car repo company and they have never been this busy in their history. There are now 15,000 repos per day in the US (you can use Google unless they have hidden this fact again). Layoffs have been increasing, especially in silicon valley and they are many many companies stating 2023 is going to be bad for them and they may have to reduce staff. It feels like 2007 when the real estate market was holding steady but the consumer was weakening behind the scenes. As the consumer got worse the market went down. Sorry but there are lots and lots of loans and homes upside down and these people will be gone when things get worse and they will drive the market down. In my area of Sacramento there are thousands of upside down FHA loans done over the last 18 months and they were all financed at near 100% with MIP and these are the lowest quality buyers... To say the market "can't" or won't" drop is just as ridiculous as the people who said it in 2007....and there were a lot of them... they were all wrong. I will mark this post and take a look at it in 12 months January 2024.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @David Oldenburg:

I think the real estate market gets worse later in 2023. This is due to consumers treading water financially and this has been going on for 2 years and they are out of money. I have a relative who works for a large car repo company and they have never been this busy in their history. There are now 15,000 repos per day in the US (you can use Google unless they have hidden this fact again). Layoffs have been increasing, especially in silicon valley and they are many many companies stating 2023 is going to be bad for them and they may have to reduce staff. It feels like 2007 when the real estate market was holding steady but the consumer was weakening behind the scenes. As the consumer got worse the market went down. Sorry but there are lots and lots of loans and homes upside down and these people will be gone when things get worse and they will drive the market down. In my area of Sacramento there are thousands of upside down FHA loans done over the last 18 months and they were all financed at near 100% with MIP and these are the lowest quality buyers... To say the market "can't" or won't" drop is just as ridiculous as the people who said it in 2007....and there were a lot of them... they were all wrong. I will mark this post and take a look at it in 12 months January 2024.

 @David Oldenburg sorry but have to add one comment. Across the US mortgage to value ratios are the best they have been in decades if not ever. Underwriting since 08 has been very stringent and when rates went up it got more stringent. 

Could FHA loans end upside down? Sure but those are only certain homes and much more limited. Hell in the Northeast FHA buyers have been forced out of the market the last 3 years.

Anyway we might crash but to say there are many homes upside down is just patently false. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @David Oldenburg:

I think the real estate market gets worse later in 2023. This is due to consumers treading water financially and this has been going on for 2 years and they are out of money. I have a relative who works for a large car repo company and they have never been this busy in their history. There are now 15,000 repos per day in the US (you can use Google unless they have hidden this fact again). Layoffs have been increasing, especially in silicon valley and they are many many companies stating 2023 is going to be bad for them and they may have to reduce staff. It feels like 2007 when the real estate market was holding steady but the consumer was weakening behind the scenes. As the consumer got worse the market went down. Sorry but there are lots and lots of loans and homes upside down and these people will be gone when things get worse and they will drive the market down. In my area of Sacramento there are thousands of upside down FHA loans done over the last 18 months and they were all financed at near 100% with MIP and these are the lowest quality buyers... To say the market "can't" or won't" drop is just as ridiculous as the people who said it in 2007....and there were a lot of them... they were all wrong. I will mark this post and take a look at it in 12 months January 2024.

 this has been discussed all over , what really happened is car price in 2020/2021 is way way way overpriced, new car dealer took so much higher profit far beyond MSRP. Then, in 2022 as interest rate is rising and supply chain normalized, those car value is falling in price hence the customer has Negative equity. They owe more than what the asset is worth . But dealers if receive that car also lose money LOL. 

So what really happened during 2020-2022 is a great lesson not to overspend, on house,car and other stupid consumerism thing. 
This is the same thing that happened in the Airbnb market.

Just invest in Ohio and you're be safe.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @David Oldenburg:

I think the real estate market gets worse later in 2023. This is due to consumers treading water financially and this has been going on for 2 years and they are out of money. I have a relative who works for a large car repo company and they have never been this busy in their history. There are now 15,000 repos per day in the US (you can use Google unless they have hidden this fact again). Layoffs have been increasing, especially in silicon valley and they are many many companies stating 2023 is going to be bad for them and they may have to reduce staff. It feels like 2007 when the real estate market was holding steady but the consumer was weakening behind the scenes. As the consumer got worse the market went down. Sorry but there are lots and lots of loans and homes upside down and these people will be gone when things get worse and they will drive the market down. In my area of Sacramento there are thousands of upside down FHA loans done over the last 18 months and they were all financed at near 100% with MIP and these are the lowest quality buyers... To say the market "can't" or won't" drop is just as ridiculous as the people who said it in 2007....and there were a lot of them... they were all wrong. I will mark this post and take a look at it in 12 months January 2024.

 Why is it the CA people are consistently on here saying the sky is falling FOR EVERYONE, and everyone else from the rest of planet Earth are talking about the variety of differences in different markets, like the fact of so many markets doing AWESOME right now. 

But no, the CA people are dead set that what happens in CA MUST be planet wide.... Seriously, what do they put in the water in CA? Is there some CA cult indoctrination that's a monthly requirement? 

Why can CA person NOT read? TX is NOT in any kind of decline, MN/Twin Cities is doing great, and these are NOT 2 exceptions there is actually a long list of places doing just fine, no mass layoffs, no mass repo's of anything, actually incomes rapidly raising, life is actually ok in several places. CA, yeah, CA is FU#KED with a capital F, oh yeah, big time. But guess what, you can find out it's NOT the center of the universe and there is a whole lot of world a hell of a lot better out there. 

And it's the popping of this CA bubble, that's the only crash happening. The rest of the country, we call it a wake-up to reality but I get it that for those so deep in the CA "cult" it feels like the end of existence, I get that. 

[Alicia C Reynolds]

I’ve been in residential real estate both a lending side and agent side.  When I started, people were literally sending their keys into the bank because of ARMS that had adjusted way too high way too fast.  2008 was an anomaly- no income/ no asset loans were done in a blink, and as a result, a lot of people lost their homes etc… Now, I think with much tighter lending practices, very little supply, we will not see a ton of foreclosures.  As an agent, I am still getting multiple offers, showings are still crowded with buyers etc… The top end of the market might correct, but overall, I think this is going to be the market getting back to business as usual- with the exception of a lack of inventory-which will keep prices relatively stable.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @David Oldenburg:

I think the real estate market gets worse later in 2023. This is due to consumers treading water financially and this has been going on for 2 years and they are out of money.  I have a relative who works for a large car repo company and they have never been this busy in their history. There are now 15,000 repos per day in the US (you ca

And it's the popping of this CA bubble, that's the only crash happening. The rest of the country, we call it a wake-up to reality but I get it that for those so deep in the CA "cult" it feels like the end of existence, I get that. 

 hahaha there are those CA cities that are impacted heavily by Ibuyer activity and they are all crying now when Ibuyer stopped buying.

James if you notice, the bear thesis guy is the one that's affected mostly by the recession, mostly due to the local oversupply market.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Alicia C Reynolds:

I’ve been in residential real estate both a lending side and agent side.  When I started, people were literally sending their keys into the bank because of ARMS that had adjusted way too high way too fast.  2008 was an anomaly- no income/ no asset loans were done in a blink, and as a result, a lot of people lost their homes etc… Now, I think with much tighter lending practices, very little supply, we will not see a ton of foreclosures.  As an agent, I am still getting multiple offers, showings are still crowded with buyers etc… The top end of the market might correct, but overall, I think this is going to be the market getting back to business as usual- with the exception of a lack of inventory-which will keep prices relatively stable.

 I have shown the chart that since 2005, the Fed already know there was a higher chance of a house bubble in 2007-2008 due to credit quality problem (bank issue). In 2022, the same chart from the Fed doesn't indicate there's a problem with the banking/financing/credit housing quality as speculation and negative equity are quite minimal. 

What the bank and people have to adjust though, can they maintain their book if swap/rate is at 5% and the spread is 3-4% for A WHILE.

So everyone has to adjust to this expensive money environment *for a while* , if the business and population is still fine with effective interest rate of 9% then the Fed may keep the high rate for longer ; but if not then they may have to readjust as well. We know by 2025 the Fed rate would reduce to 2.5 anyway.

People keep screaming layoff layoff layoff while unemployment is reduced and stock market started rallying again. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

This is the actual active inventory number for Dec 22:

_Time____Dec22__Nov22

Denver__4.7k_____6.2k
Vegas___7.6k_____8.9k
Nashvile_6.6k____7.9k
SantaClara__0.69k___1.12k 

Inventory is mildly reducing in many markets, indicating a consolidation phase.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

This is the actual active inventory number for Dec 22:

_Time____Dec22__Nov22

Denver__4.7k_____6.2k
Vegas___7.6k_____8.9k
Nashvile_6.6k____7.9k
SantaClara__0.69k___1.12k 

Inventory is mildly reducing in many markets, indicating a consolidation phase.

 Keep in mind, we are in middle of winter off-season. This trajectory holds over next 8-12 weeks, it set's the stage for the single tightest housing inventory market EVER, another record setting year. This, my gut read, will have a far greater market impact on rental rates than it will sale prices. 

I would have to coin this summer season "the results" season, because I foresee the end result of, well everything, coming together into substance this season. Which yes, pushes things into bubble territory. 

A bubble is simply an expression of pressure, and we have housing pressure in spades. The f-gov. may get ahead of it and do some smart things to relieve that pressure, but it would be one of the few rare "smart" actions I have ever seen them do among mountains of stupid so I'd say odd's are well against that. 

I see the brandishing of a fall guy, much like each of the recent issues, our "leaders" were quick to point a finger no matter how ridiculous it was. I think it will be the same here, telling people it's the investors fault they can't find a home to buy, which makes 0 sense and is completely opposite but makes a good sound bite for the sheeple who gobble that up with a shovel. And than some idiotic stimulus to follow to "empower" people to better secure housing which any idiot with a semester econ under the belt would know will RAISE prices not lower them but hey, there the f-gov. and there here to help you.... 

We have been building pent-up demand for a few months now, that can hold only so long. Avg potential sellers today, do your research people, people who bought over the last 48mnths by the #'s are some of the BEST qualifying home buyers of the last 4+ generations, lending practices were of such, rates so low, equity build so significant. By the #'s those who bought over last 48mnths are well equipped to just sit where they are for next 10yrs. In effect, we just took 74% of the inventory off the board completely for the next decade or so. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

This is the actual active inventory number for Dec 22:

_Time____Dec22__Nov22

Denver__4.7k_____6.2k
Vegas___7.6k_____8.9k
Nashvile_6.6k____7.9k
SantaClara__0.69k___1.12k 

Inventory is mildly reducing in many markets, indicating a consolidation phase.

 Keep in mind, we are in middle of winter off-season. This trajectory holds over next 8-12 weeks, it set's the stage for the single tightest housing inventory market EVER, another record setting year. This, my gut read, will have a far greater market impact on rental rates than it will sale prices. 

I would have to coin this summer season "the results" season, because I foresee the end result of, well everything, coming together into substance this season. Which yes, pushes things into bubble territory. 

In our metro, a new listing under 1 mil only happened once every two days, in my zip code the new listing is zero since NYE.

I don't understand why you say it would impact rental more.

This market is very strange, there's no supply, and still a lot of buyers that expecting a miracle. 

I agree with Austin's realtor's comments a long time ago in this thread, if you patiently wait for enough, your home would be sold hitting the list price. 

We started to see a listing with prices "increased" a few times.