Real Estate News & Current Events
Market News & Data
General Info
Real Estate Strategies
Landlording & Rental Properties
Real Estate Professionals
Financial, Tax, & Legal
Real Estate Classifieds
Reviews & Feedback
Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,179
- Votes |
- 3,997
- Posts
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Greg R.:
According to James, the trend line below shows dropping inventory over the last year. 😂😂🤡🤡
Here is the REAL and COMPLETE data.
Thanks again for demonstrating to everyone your inability to read and understand posts that you respond to. You also lack the ability to comprehend the difference between a year and a decade. Have fun arguing with your self about data from 2010 and 2017. You are the only person in this chain talking about datasets from 6-13 years ago.
Actually no. As I said earlier nobody said inventory wouldn’t go up from the all time low it has ever been. We all said inventory would remain historically tight. And it has as the chart shows.
But every time I call this out you say you don’t want to dig through hundreds of posts.
And inventory is light which is why costs still haven’t changed much despite the high rates (outside of a few key markets).
Wow, this Greg R. guy, he's just something else. "King Troll" or "King Deceiver" I am not sure which is more appropriate. he now argues "NO, don't look at any data other then this one tiny selected time frame, see, the end of everything is happening, IF you ONLY look at this very specific tiny time-frame and don't consider any context at all".
CONTEXT!
Just as Michael said, NOBODY has said 1 time ever that everything will stay EXACTLY as it was that 1 specific "perfect" month when things were at there most perfect maximum PERFECTION. But you know this Greg R., you are just using diversion, manipulation, distortion to NOT address the facts.
YOU Greg R. keep arguing Real Estate and the economy is "CRASHING" COAST-TO-COAST. That is patently FALSE!
Every time we hit you with documented CHARTED facts, you use ridiculous misdirection arguing.
You make up FALSE statements that none of us have said, you use slander, distortion, selective data. Your obsessed, obsessed and delusional.
James, I find it hilarious that you of all people call me a troll. You are the ultimate troll who throughout this forum has had pie all over your face for all the times you've been proven wrong. Yet, your pride and arrogance is such that you will never admit you were wrong. You just keep digging your hole deeper and deeper.
After going back and forth about this topic 10 times, you still lack the understanding to grasp my original statement and what I'm looking at. At this point I'm convinced that you truly don't have the ability to understand my point.
I stated from the very beginning that I was talking about a certain timeframe. Look at my original post that started this convo with. I even provided a screen shot of that post earlier today. Even then you still lacked the ability to correctly understand the point that was being made.
I'll include it one more time, for the record. Surely not to convince you, because you are completely delusional and have convinced yourself that I'm arguing you about historical data, which I'm not.
The post clearly states that inventory isn't where it was at years ago (duh). No one is arguing with you about inventory from 13 years ago!!! lmao, you are arguing with yourself about that.
I also stated that it's increasing, also DUH. Since Feb 2022 trend line on active listings is UP. This is not a controversial statement Since February 2022 inventory has gone up, not down.
However, I suppose you're going to argue that as well. Because you already did!!! Your exact words "Inventory IS dropping. It's literally right here in the chart!"
Saying inventory is dropping is a present tense statement. You didn't say it has been dropping since 2020, or it has been dropping over the last several years. You said "Inventory IS dropping".
That is a flat out false statement - verifiably so. Since February 2022, almost a year ago inventory has doubled.
But again, you are the master troll, and someone who loves to muddy the waters and deceive others. Because of your pride and arrogance I don't expect you to admit you were wrong.
No end to your lies and distortion.
Here, AGAIN, is the charts CLEARLY showing inventory coming DOWN. That is an active NOW line going DOWN. This is the 3rd time this has been poste dhere I believe, maybe 2nd.
As for your other BS, I don't care what you say or snippet here to try and cover-up your BS getting aired for all, it's documented over many pages. You've been wrong on every point repetitively over and over again. Than you come back and just call me names and make sh#t up out of nowhere.
I get your point, it's to cover your azz and try to pretend you weren't completely full of sh#t from the get-go, and every time since. i imagine this happens a lot in your life, you saunter into some conversation leagues beyond your comprehension, then throw out some wild made-up remarks thinking everyone will think how "oh so cool" you are, and then turns out someone there, like me, actually knows what the hell there talking about and calls you out on your BS made up statement. In fear and anxiety, you quickly lash out, with personal attacks, say there Mom is fat, there butt is hairy, whatever, because God-forbid anyone find out your just a wind-bag who randomly barks BS plucked from thin air for attention. yeah, I get it, I got exactly who you are and your point, I just don't give a sh#t. You don't impress me, you don't scare me, I think your pathetic for the constant lies and BS, and i am going to keep calling out the BS for what it is, grade-A manure.
You have said "coast to coast" in reference to mass layoffs, inventory shooting way up, prices falling. I started at super simple, I showed you all the MN market data, because that right there blows your whole "coast to coast" argument. Now, I went a step further and showed TX, CO, GA.
Than your response is to pretend the data charts I posted don't exist, while at the same time arguing the data does not say that. You my friend could win the gold-buckle at the BS Rodeo.
Than as others have pointed things out you reply making up false statements that we never said. Saying the most ludicrous stuff like your right because we said inventory would stay at '22' lows of the most epic month ever. No, we never said that, ever, nope, and you know it, it's just your tactic to evade, make a lie and then argue that lie. Again, BS Rodeo king.
I suggest therapy, probably lot's of it.
I was a bit off on 1 part of my forecast, that is the market seems to be much stronger than I had forecasted. Feel free to read back, I forecasted consolidation to come end Q1, start of Q2, and for the winter season to have more significant pull-back than this. It's actually doing better then my most optimistic models. Were sitting at about a 8% pull back, and I forecasted 7-15%.
But hey, I am sure your going to come up with some more jazzy lies to say i said. hey, this time could you make it something fun, like I said Dinosaurs would jump from the OK dirt and demand equality and to stop burning there ancestors. At least make it entertaining when you make up false statements of me. Oh-oh-oh, or maybe I could be a space-cowboy, that sounds cool. Maybe your next doomsday prediction could be an asteroid or something.
- James Hamling
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
@Greg R.I'm starting to fully agree with James here. You are trolling at this point. He's posted multiple times, I've posted a dozen times that nobody ever thought that 2021-2022 inventory would remain. Nobody has ever said that. you can't find a single example of it. EVERYBODY has said inventory will remain, keyword now, historically low. And it has. And in fact the charts James are posting are showing that.
Even in your charts we are still at the lows of covid that we saw the end of 2020 and 2021. It's low, historically low. Which is all everybody has predicted and there are quite a few of those posts in this thread. Now when it gets back to 2015-2016 levels you might have something....
A stance that I've seen repeatedly is that inventory levels will remain low & not increase. The argument is that rather than lower costs and meet the buyers where they are (due to rate increases and increased P&I payments), that sellers would simply pull out of the market and wait for selling conditions to improve to maximize their earnings.
Again, I never said that inventory levels weren't historically low. I said the opposite if you look at my post. I don't understand why the statement "inventory is rising" is being confused for "inventory levels are historically high". Those are two completely different things, and I never stated the latter.
I have repeatedly stated that we are heading up in regarding to inventory, not that we're there. We obviously have a ways to go when we're looking at historical norms, but the trend is up, not down.
I totally get that James would get these topics confused and not be able to differentiate. A bit surprising to hear this from you.
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
@Greg R.I'm starting to fully agree with James here. You are trolling at this point. He's posted multiple times, I've posted a dozen times that nobody ever thought that 2021-2022 inventory would remain. Nobody has ever said that. you can't find a single example of it. EVERYBODY has said inventory will remain, keyword now, historically low. And it has. And in fact the charts James are posting are showing that.
Even in your charts we are still at the lows of covid that we saw the end of 2020 and 2021. It's low, historically low. Which is all everybody has predicted and there are quite a few of those posts in this thread. Now when it gets back to 2015-2016 levels you might have something....
A stance that I've seen repeatedly is that inventory levels will remain low & not increase. The argument is that rather than lower costs and meet the buyers where they are (due to rate increases and increased P&I payments), that sellers would simply pull out of the market and wait for selling conditions to improve to maximize their earnings.
Again, I never said that inventory levels weren't historically low. I said the opposite if you look at my post. I don't understand why the statement "inventory is rising" is being confused for "inventory levels are historically high". Those are two completely different things, and I never stated the latter.
I have repeatedly stated that we are heading up in regarding to inventory, not that we're there. We obviously have a ways to go when we're looking at historical norms, but the trend is up, not down.
I totally get that James would get these topics confused and not be able to differentiate. A bit surprising to hear this from you.
James, I know data and accuracy aren't your thing. But do you realize that you're looking at a different metric? The graph you are showing is single family home sales.
I am showing active listing count.
Can't make this stuff up 😂
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
@Greg R.I'm starting to fully agree with James here. You are trolling at this point. He's posted multiple times, I've posted a dozen times that nobody ever thought that 2021-2022 inventory would remain. Nobody has ever said that. you can't find a single example of it. EVERYBODY has said inventory will remain, keyword now, historically low. And it has. And in fact the charts James are posting are showing that.
Even in your charts we are still at the lows of covid that we saw the end of 2020 and 2021. It's low, historically low. Which is all everybody has predicted and there are quite a few of those posts in this thread. Now when it gets back to 2015-2016 levels you might have something....
A stance that I've seen repeatedly is that inventory levels will remain low & not increase. The argument is that rather than lower costs and meet the buyers where they are (due to rate increases and increased P&I payments), that sellers would simply pull out of the market and wait for selling conditions to improve to maximize their earnings.
Again, I never said that inventory levels weren't historically low. I said the opposite if you look at my post. I don't understand why the statement "inventory is rising" is being confused for "inventory levels are historically high". Those are two completely different things, and I never stated the latter.
I have repeatedly stated that we are heading up in regarding to inventory, not that we're there. We obviously have a ways to go when we're looking at historical norms, but the trend is up, not down.
I totally get that James would get these topics confused and not be able to differentiate. A bit surprising to hear this from you.
It’s not being confused.My point is just that I’ve been here for over 70 pages very active. And I’ve never once seen “anybody” say inventory won’t rise. We’ve also it will remain low because people will sit on their homes where they can. And that’s pretty much what we are seeing.
So confusion, no. You just keep saying people said it would never rise. I’ve asked for one single example of that and it’s too much work. So yes thats why i’m begining to agree with him. You are making claims about people but can’t even reference it.
Considering that many homeowners have built significant equity in their homes, the majority of analysts do not anticipate a housing market crash in 2023. The main problem is one of affordability. For first-time buyers, buying a home has become difficult due to high mortgage rates and rising home values. Because a correction's impacts, are less serious and far-reaching than those of a housing market crash.
The housing market will be impacted by the broader economic situation as 2023 begins, and as buyers and sellers continue to be cautious, it is anticipated that there will be less supply and demand overall. Home prices are predicted to drop by about 8% over the course of the year.
The key term this year is affordability when it comes to the real estate market. When investing in real estate this year, it may be a good to consider markets that are more affordable like the central Ohio market.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
@Greg R.I'm starting to fully agree with James here. You are trolling at this point. He's posted multiple times, I've posted a dozen times that nobody ever thought that 2021-2022 inventory would remain. Nobody has ever said that. you can't find a single example of it. EVERYBODY has said inventory will remain, keyword now, historically low. And it has. And in fact the charts James are posting are showing that.
Even in your charts we are still at the lows of covid that we saw the end of 2020 and 2021. It's low, historically low. Which is all everybody has predicted and there are quite a few of those posts in this thread. Now when it gets back to 2015-2016 levels you might have something....
A stance that I've seen repeatedly is that inventory levels will remain low & not increase. The argument is that rather than lower costs and meet the buyers where they are (due to rate increases and increased P&I payments), that sellers would simply pull out of the market and wait for selling conditions to improve to maximize their earnings.
Again, I never said that inventory levels weren't historically low. I said the opposite if you look at my post. I don't understand why the statement "inventory is rising" is being confused for "inventory levels are historically high". Those are two completely different things, and I never stated the latter.
I have repeatedly stated that we are heading up in regarding to inventory, not that we're there. We obviously have a ways to go when we're looking at historical norms, but the trend is up, not down.
I totally get that James would get these topics confused and not be able to differentiate. A bit surprising to hear this from you.
It’s not being confused.My point is just that I’ve been here for over 70 pages very active. And I’ve never once seen “anybody” say inventory won’t rise. We’ve also it will remain low because people will sit on their homes where they can. And that’s pretty much what we are seeing.
So confusion, no. You just keep saying people said it would never rise. I’ve asked for one single example of that and it’s too much work. So yes thats why i’m begining to agree with him. You are making claims about people but can’t even reference it.
That’s great… I’ve been here for 114 pages along with a variety of other forums here on BP and elsewhere.
Not going to go through every post to satisfy you, but the stance I’m referring to is not some far out there stance.
These are just a few, but I heard this stance from several people who adopted the idea that pricing won’t go down. One of their main argument was that inventory wouldn’t increase for the foreseeable future.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
You need to venmo me $100 and I will say your argument is better LOL
Not sure why people are so crazy in 2023 just for reading chart LOL
just buy anything now and sell in 2027 , you will make money guaranteed, if not, I will venmo you back.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
You need to venmo me $100 and I will say your argument is better LOL
Not sure why people are so crazy in 2023 just for reading chart LOL
just buy anything now and sell in 2027 , you will make money guaranteed, if not, I will venmo you back.
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,179
- Votes |
- 3,997
- Posts
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
@Greg R.I'm starting to fully agree with James here. You are trolling at this point. He's posted multiple times, I've posted a dozen times that nobody ever thought that 2021-2022 inventory would remain. Nobody has ever said that. you can't find a single example of it. EVERYBODY has said inventory will remain, keyword now, historically low. And it has. And in fact the charts James are posting are showing that.
Even in your charts we are still at the lows of covid that we saw the end of 2020 and 2021. It's low, historically low. Which is all everybody has predicted and there are quite a few of those posts in this thread. Now when it gets back to 2015-2016 levels you might have something....
A stance that I've seen repeatedly is that inventory levels will remain low & not increase. The argument is that rather than lower costs and meet the buyers where they are (due to rate increases and increased P&I payments), that sellers would simply pull out of the market and wait for selling conditions to improve to maximize their earnings.
Again, I never said that inventory levels weren't historically low. I said the opposite if you look at my post. I don't understand why the statement "inventory is rising" is being confused for "inventory levels are historically high". Those are two completely different things, and I never stated the latter.
I have repeatedly stated that we are heading up in regarding to inventory, not that we're there. We obviously have a ways to go when we're looking at historical norms, but the trend is up, not down.
I totally get that James would get these topics confused and not be able to differentiate. A bit surprising to hear this from you.
It’s not being confused.My point is just that I’ve been here for over 70 pages very active. And I’ve never once seen “anybody” say inventory won’t rise. We’ve also it will remain low because people will sit on their homes where they can. And that’s pretty much what we are seeing.
So confusion, no. You just keep saying people said it would never rise. I’ve asked for one single example of that and it’s too much work. So yes thats why i’m begining to agree with him. You are making claims about people but can’t even reference it.
It is right here, immediately above this, Greg still obsessively says inventory is INCREASING. Here, immediately below I am attaching the chart FOR THE THIRD TIME clearly showing inventory DECREASING. It does not get any more clear than an inventory chart GOING DOWN. Greg, please STOP the BS, this is the 3rd time I have presented this simple SIMPLE evidence of DECREASING inventory AT THIS TIME, each time you keep saying inventory is going up nationally, NO IT IS NOT. It had, but NOW, what we are talking about as you clarified "the NOW" inventory is going DOWN.
Greg, if your going to argue inventory is going UP, please explain the above DOWN chart line.
- James Hamling
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,179
- Votes |
- 3,997
- Posts
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
@Greg R.I'm starting to fully agree with James here. You are trolling at this point. He's posted multiple times, I've posted a dozen times that nobody ever thought that 2021-2022 inventory would remain. Nobody has ever said that. you can't find a single example of it. EVERYBODY has said inventory will remain, keyword now, historically low. And it has. And in fact the charts James are posting are showing that.
Even in your charts we are still at the lows of covid that we saw the end of 2020 and 2021. It's low, historically low. Which is all everybody has predicted and there are quite a few of those posts in this thread. Now when it gets back to 2015-2016 levels you might have something....
A stance that I've seen repeatedly is that inventory levels will remain low & not increase. The argument is that rather than lower costs and meet the buyers where they are (due to rate increases and increased P&I payments), that sellers would simply pull out of the market and wait for selling conditions to improve to maximize their earnings.
Again, I never said that inventory levels weren't historically low. I said the opposite if you look at my post. I don't understand why the statement "inventory is rising" is being confused for "inventory levels are historically high". Those are two completely different things, and I never stated the latter.
I have repeatedly stated that we are heading up in regarding to inventory, not that we're there. We obviously have a ways to go when we're looking at historical norms, but the trend is up, not down.
I totally get that James would get these topics confused and not be able to differentiate. A bit surprising to hear this from you.
It’s not being confused.My point is just that I’ve been here for over 70 pages very active. And I’ve never once seen “anybody” say inventory won’t rise. We’ve also it will remain low because people will sit on their homes where they can. And that’s pretty much what we are seeing.
So confusion, no. You just keep saying people said it would never rise. I’ve asked for one single example of that and it’s too much work. So yes thats why i’m begining to agree with him. You are making claims about people but can’t even reference it.
That’s great… I’ve been here for 114 pages along with a variety of other forums here on BP and elsewhere.
Not going to go through every post to satisfy you, but the stance I’m referring to is not some far out there stance.
These are just a few, but I heard this stance from several people who adopted the idea that pricing won’t go down. One of their main argument was that inventory wouldn’t increase for the foreseeable future.
Is this your point of argument your at Greg? The above discussions of inventory not meeting demand and your point out some increases in inventory over a few months? I am being serious. Because that would make a whole lot more sane sense to some of your arguments, and where your confusion lies.
These conversations are on a macro level. A month, or even few/several months of inventory increase is a nothing impact against these statements. These above discussions are on a discussion level that your not on or looking at. There discussing apple orchards and years worth of actions and your looking at an individual apple tree and one single time in a singular growing season. Yes, your micro lens may very well not match that macro vision, it does not change the fact of the macro.
I work in this segment, FT. It's very literally what I do.
On the macro level we are looking at a phase over impact from '08', which is the "lost decade" as we reference it. That is the 10yr period after '08' that new unit production went to near 0, and a vast swatch of production capacity was eliminated, making the requirement of a new scale-up period which according to NAHB will take another decade of uninterrupted growth to get back up to parity. That was previous to the past 6 months so that's now out the window as we have interruption via developers/builders throttling production and no longer working to press scaling up.
With how rapid mortgage rates increased, at the sizes of the increases, everyone universally agreed that (a) VOLUME of home sales would "crash" (b) listings volume of existing stock would rapidly fall. To what degree in relation to the volume drop was of some question and debate BUT that listing volume would also significantly drop was also of universal agreement (c) given the data of recent home sales over previous 36-48 mnths with updated lending practices and standards, rate levels of locks, that there would be a significant EXTENSION in the average hold-time that existing homeowners stayed in there properties.
This is how those of us PROFESSIONALS in this industry knew, with mathematical certainty, there was NO "crash" impending in Real Estate. As I have said for the entire time, of not only this posting but previous similar ridiculous ones also calling for an imminent "crash".
The supply demand curve primed the explosion we say in the recent years. The massive low of rates facilitated the run. Inflation has provided support structure for the new pricing levels. I understand these are not simple economic understandings for many, but facts they are. Now we are stepping into a next chapter of this story, it is not done yet. It will not be done until the pressure is relieved a bit on the supply-demand curve for housing, which is greatest pressure from rental demand in SFR segment. MFH has been feverishly working to infill demand, which has a much more rapid capacity to produce units than in the SFR segment. Although this does not fully relieve pressure because MFH only meets a segment of the rental market not the whole. For a large segment SFR is required.
next chapter is going to be written by HOW that demand starts being meet. And the impact of such. There is very large acquisition campaigns just getting ramped up and ready to launch. As I have spoken of in other places, these things do not move with the speed of a individual investor making a choice of action, these are corporate entities with considerable process's to work for such, it takes time. When it starts hitting, it will be noticed. A billion+ in inventory get's gobbled up, it get's noticed eventually.
You've used emotion in saying there is no buyers, and that institutional investors are all running away. I work in this segment, your very wrong, completely 180 wrong.
Point is, you called out that there absolutely would be a "crash" of real estate to extent that anyone who says anything different from you is a "denier". That's the epitome of arrogant ignorance. There has been no "crash" since starting this post, there will not be one Q1 '23' nor Q2 '23', not '23' period, barring nuclear war or some other extreme "black-swan".
- James Hamling
Looks like Dec numbers just hit. @Carlos Ptriawan haven't had chance to evaluate them fully, but Dallas median home price is now at the lowest point since Jan 2021
Also US housing market recorded the 7th straight month of price declines, which makes a 10% price decrease nationally over the last 7 months (since the peak of the bubble.)
#2 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Coppell, TX
Went to visit a builder in Frisco on Monday afternoon. Beautiful day.....they're selling what is basically 1/2 duplex. $550,000 is starting price and had people lined out the door. Worked with both buyers and sellers this last week on multiple offers....none were at the top of the market pricing and things like option periods are real again, but I think every deal had multiple offers......so there are people in DFW area out buying and selling.
A couple other take aways...
- Denver, a generally strong market recorded it's 7th straight month of price declines, declining $125,000 and 18%. Quite the fall in only 7 months
- Chicago IL is down 75k and over 20% since June
- Las Vegas is down 57k and over 13% since June
- Tucson AZ is down 45k and over 13% since June
- Minneapolis MN is down 55k and over 15% since June
- Philadelphia PA is down 43k and 15% since June
- Boston is down 90k and over 11% since July
- Detroit MI is down over 17% since July
- Seattle WA is down 107k and 12% since May
This is not just a west coast or a CA thing.
Quote from @Greg R.:
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
Always interesting to discuss the future, isn't it... I loved Dave Meyer's sober report on the state of the housing market and the analysis-driven "predictions" for 2023. You can check out his forum post and download his full report by following this link.
Quote from @Greg R.:
A couple other take aways...
- Denver, a generally strong market recorded it's 7th straight month of price declines, declining $125,000 and 18%. Quite the fall in only 7 months
- Chicago IL is down 75k and over 20% since June
- Las Vegas is down 57k and over 13% since June
- Tucson AZ is down 45k and over 13% since June
- Minneapolis MN is down 55k and over 15% since June
- Philadelphia PA is down 43k and 15% since June
- Boston is down 90k and over 11% since July
- Detroit MI is down over 17% since July
- Seattle WA is down 107k and 12% since May
This is not just a west coast or a CA thing.
- Yes, every market is different
- Yes, some markets are flat and a few might even be increasing
- Yes, sales and transactions are still happening - they didn't completely stop
Quote from @Greg R.:
Looks like Dec numbers just hit. @Carlos Ptriawan haven't had chance to evaluate them fully, but Dallas median home price is now at the lowest point since Jan 2021
Not a surprise since Dallas and Austin are in line with CA changes. Actually Dallas looks to be on track to do worse than CA. That said it might be close to Jan 2021. But it's not far off from Jan 22 etc.. Dallas has been one of those markets I pointed out had a very unusual jump March - May 2022 and you can see it in that chart. And despite us talking about COVID / 21 type jumps it doesn't match rest of country.
Meanwhile here are a few other East Coast markets:
https://www.redfin.com/county/... (PA Suburbs of Philly)
Charleston SC: https://www.redfin.com/city/34...
NYC: https://www.redfin.com/city/30...
Atlanta: https://www.redfin.com/city/30... - one of the bigger drops in a major east coast market but still pretty flatlined. January will be interesting though.
Jupiter, FL https://www.redfin.com/city/91...
Fort Meyers FL: https://www.redfin.com/city/62...
Dallas is getting hit. Some of the west coast is but as @Carlos Ptriawan pointed out some of that is evening out. but there are plenty of flat markets across the East. Cali also drove a lot of the national decline. Those big markets have a big hit on median home prices. If they continue to level future cuts will be slower. 10-15% is what I've been expecting though. I have been planning for it actually.
Ultimately FED will have a big impact. They are sort of pissed at the markets right now for lowering their pricing on products. Hopefully they don't get in a pissing contest.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Dallas is getting hit. Some of the west coast is but as @Carlos Ptriawan pointed out some of that is evening out. but there are plenty of flat markets across the East. Cali also drove a lot of the national decline.t.
114 pages (to date) summarized visually
On Wednesday, KB Home announced that its buyer cancellation rate in the fourth quarter of 2022 spiked to 68%. That's up from 35% in the third quarter of 2022, and up from 13% in the fourth quarter of 2021. Just saying that is not a good sign.
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,179
- Votes |
- 3,997
- Posts
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- James Hamling
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,179
- Votes |
- 3,997
- Posts
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Greg R.:
A couple other take aways...
- Denver, a generally strong market recorded it's 7th straight month of price declines, declining $125,000 and 18%. Quite the fall in only 7 months
- Chicago IL is down 75k and over 20% since June
- Las Vegas is down 57k and over 13% since June
- Tucson AZ is down 45k and over 13% since June
- Minneapolis MN is down 55k and over 15% since June
- Philadelphia PA is down 43k and 15% since June
- Boston is down 90k and over 11% since July
- Detroit MI is down over 17% since July
- Seattle WA is down 107k and 12% since May
This is not just a west coast or a CA thing.
What in the fogazzi is wrong with you?! This is an outright LIE! NO, Twin Cities is NOT down 55K or 15%. That is my HOME MARKET, I have full feed, have posted many times, which you ignore and then just make up total BS lies saying it's all going to hell.
Here is the REAL data.
It just doesn't end with you Greg, you just keep making things up and posting FALSE information. I don't have a direct feed on those other markets like I do T.C. but I'd love to see the REAL DATA from those who do to cross check your statements, being SO WRONG about T.C. market that it's not wrong, it's just out-right lies.
- James Hamling
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,179
- Votes |
- 3,997
- Posts
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Greg R.:
Also US housing market recorded the 7th straight month of price declines, which makes a 10% price decrease nationally over the last 7 months (since the peak of the bubble.)
Really? Because according to the data from FRED, your full of sh#t. Please explain this.
- James Hamling
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Greg R.:
A couple other take aways...
- Denver, a generally strong market recorded it's 7th straight month of price declines, declining $125,000 and 18%. Quite the fall in only 7 months
- Chicago IL is down 75k and over 20% since June
- Las Vegas is down 57k and over 13% since June
- Tucson AZ is down 45k and over 13% since June
- Minneapolis MN is down 55k and over 15% since June
- Philadelphia PA is down 43k and 15% since June
- Boston is down 90k and over 11% since July
- Detroit MI is down over 17% since July
- Seattle WA is down 107k and 12% since May
This is not just a west coast or a CA thing.
What in the fogazzi is wrong with you?! This is an outright LIE! NO, Twin Cities is NOT down 55K or 15%. That is my HOME MARKET, I have full feed, have posted many times, which you ignore and then just make up total BS lies saying it's all going to hell.
Here is the REAL data.
It just doesn't end with you Greg, you just keep making things up and posting FALSE information. I don't have a direct feed on those other markets like I do T.C. but I'd love to see the REAL DATA from those who do to cross check your statements, being SO WRONG about T.C. market that it's not wrong, it's just out-right lies.
