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All Forum Posts by: Bill F.

Bill F. has started 14 posts and replied 1746 times.

Post: REIT or Syndication IRR %

Bill F.Posted
  • Investor
  • Boston, MA
  • Posts 1,830
  • Votes 3,390

An important part of IRR is time frame, which you haven't provided, but we can assumer 5-7 years for the REIT since that's the usual hold time for Syndications.

At first approximation, since the REITs are, on average, less risky than syndications due to a number of factors (reporting requirements, size of assets,, sophistication of operators, cost of capital, liquidity ect) they will, as a rule have lower returns. 

In terms of IRR, you can expect publicly traded REITS to have IRRS in to high single digits to mid teens and Syndications in the mid teens to mid 20's or higher IRR.

Post: Thank God I had an LLC!! - Said no one ever!?

Bill F.Posted
  • Investor
  • Boston, MA
  • Posts 1,830
  • Votes 3,390
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Bill F.:

@Marcus Auerbach

Each big city has a building, sometimes more than one, where lawyers and judges and juries all come together and hash these things out while taking copious notes and records, I think its called a courthouse...? Those buldings also have their records online and you can search them one the same device you used to post on BP and get an answer in like 30min! What a time to be alive. And I'm pretty sure those records will show how LLC's have protected ppl assets better than a bunch of strangers on the internet sorting themselves into likeminded pods of group think.

Great thread though, not every day you see a RE Broker tell an actual lawyer, who specializes in RE LAW, how the legal system works. Granted agents are probably a bit salty at the legal system after last Tuesday's verdict, but still. 


Look who is salty! Did you fall out of bed on the wrong side this morning? Your post offers zero value, obviously you did not read my question and I have seen better attempts to mock people on the internet.

About the lawsuite: I actually agree with the outcome. The US standard of sellers having to pay for the buyers agent is a global anomaly (just like inches, pounds and cups) and makes little sense. The current standard benefits buyers agents who bring little to no value to their clients. And as an investor, I am all for it!

 The old: 'you didn't read my question' trope. Classic.

Lets run the tape back. You asked not one, but three questions: 

1.There must be actual cases! Please share your story, if you ever were saved by an LLC - what were the circumstances? 

2.What did you get sued for, how much and why did the plaintiff win?

3.Did you have an umbrella insurance?

#1. Answered in court records, but only if the case went to trial/ judgment. 

#2. Answered in court records for every time any one will an LLC is sued.

#3. Not directly answered but can be interpolated via who is named in the lawsuit. You could search for suits that name the 5-10 larger P&C Insurers and that sample would probably have mostly non random characteristics. 

But you seem like a smart guy so I don't think you actually wanted an answer to your questions... 

Post: Thank God I had an LLC!! - Said no one ever!?

Bill F.Posted
  • Investor
  • Boston, MA
  • Posts 1,830
  • Votes 3,390
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Bill F.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Tom Gimer:
Quote from @James Hamling:

@Marcus Auerbach maybe we should re-ask this question in a reverse manner? 

Can anyone answer why/how it is O.J. Simpson has only paid $133k on a many tens of millions judgement from suit he lost decades ago. Keep in mind, LEGALLY has only paid $133k, retained all asset's, no liens, no seizures. legally. 

I know the answer, curious if any others do. 

Spoiler alert; the answer isn't LLC.


Florida homestead laws.


Incorrect, and very odd answer. 

O.J. was CA resident, CA property, CA suit. Again, odd answer. 



You've sold me with your even keeled, succinct, and rational posts. I'm starting a fan club for your humility. 

It's just me so far...

Post: Thank God I had an LLC!! - Said no one ever!?

Bill F.Posted
  • Investor
  • Boston, MA
  • Posts 1,830
  • Votes 3,390
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Tom Gimer:
Quote from @James Hamling:

@Marcus Auerbach maybe we should re-ask this question in a reverse manner? 

Can anyone answer why/how it is O.J. Simpson has only paid $133k on a many tens of millions judgement from suit he lost decades ago. Keep in mind, LEGALLY has only paid $133k, retained all asset's, no liens, no seizures. legally. 

I know the answer, curious if any others do. 

Spoiler alert; the answer isn't LLC.


Florida homestead laws.


Incorrect, and very odd answer. 

O.J. was CA resident, CA property, CA suit. Again, odd answer. 


Post: Thank God I had an LLC!! - Said no one ever!?

Bill F.Posted
  • Investor
  • Boston, MA
  • Posts 1,830
  • Votes 3,390

@Marcus Auerbach

Each big city has a building, sometimes more than one, where lawyers and judges and juries all come together and hash these things out while taking copious notes and records, I think its called a courthouse...? Those buldings also have their records online and you can search them one the same device you used to post on BP and get an answer in like 30min! What a time to be alive. And I'm pretty sure those records will show how LLC's have protected ppl assets better than a bunch of strangers on the internet sorting themselves into likeminded pods of group think.

Great thread though, not every day you see a RE Broker tell an actual lawyer, who specializes in RE LAW, how the legal system works. Granted agents are probably a bit salty at the legal system after last Tuesday's verdict, but still. 

Post: Success Rate in Real Estate...Shockingly Low

Bill F.Posted
  • Investor
  • Boston, MA
  • Posts 1,830
  • Votes 3,390
Quote from @John Morgan:

Several of mine I’ve held for over a year have an 80-120% return on my down-payments when you factor in 5% appreciation, principal pay down and monthly cash flow combined. The example I used on a recent purchase this year is 126%. I’m not saying RE is easy. All I’m trying to point out is that it builds wealth quickly with leverage and patience to wait 3-5 years. That’s when I pull equity out of some of mine to scale up with no out of pocket money. It’s a strategy a lot of us use. I’ve bought 12 rentals with zero out of pocket cash by doing this with cash out refis. 

"How many legs does a dog have if you call his tail a leg? Four. Saying that a tail is a leg doesn't make it a leg."

Abraham Lincoln

And what I and others are saying, is, "That's not your return". Returns are calculated off cash generated by the asset, not paper gains. 

Additionally the strategy you've employed has inherent risks associated with it that you seem to ignore because the massive appreciation and rent growth you area has seen have mostly mitigated mitigated those risks. 

Having high LTV portfolio where you take all your equity and use that to get more levered assets is risky. It is the reason you've seen such good returns even once you correct for the funky math.

That's not a value judgement about your strategy, it has clearly worked for you and that's great, but it is a statement of facts that we all should agree on. 


Post: ARMs adjusting soon

Bill F.Posted
  • Investor
  • Boston, MA
  • Posts 1,830
  • Votes 3,390

@Stanley Lo

As a general rule you want to match the duration of your debt to the life of your assets, in this case, how long you plan to hold the rentals for. If you want to hold them ST until you sell, probably better to stick with what you have. 

If you plan on holding onto the the property for 1-5 more years, I'd look at what it will cost you to get a new loan vs hold on to your ARM. On the ARM's what are the yearly and total caps? With a 1% cap yo could hold onto these rentals for a few years until they reach today's rates.

If you are into these for the long term probably better to bite the bullet and refi into something fixed, you can always refi again if rates come down, but that calculus depends on the specifics of your AMRs. 

Post: Buying my first commercial property.... Is this a good idea?

Bill F.Posted
  • Investor
  • Boston, MA
  • Posts 1,830
  • Votes 3,390
Quote from @Tyson Curtis:

Buying my first commercial property. $1.8 million / 30,000 sqft / annual rent $175,000 .

Currently negative cashflows $4k a month on a new 20 year term loan at 10% and 20% down.

But, currently only half the space is rented out.

Talk to me, please


 I used to have a boss who would say " If there's doubt, there is no doubt" I think that applies here. 

Questions that come to mind for me:

How long can you float the -$4k/month? 

How much experience do you have finding and vetting retail tenants? 

How much do you understand the drivers of a successful long term retail business? 

What's your investment thesis for infilling the vacant sq footage w/ a tenant that will compliment the existing tenant?

Post: Success Rate in Real Estate...Shockingly Low

Bill F.Posted
  • Investor
  • Boston, MA
  • Posts 1,830
  • Votes 3,390
Quote from @Jim K.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @K S.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Peter W.:
Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @K S.:
Herein lies the rub with me, you do consulting and you're an agent. Many of these comments are sellers of something. I'm just trying to be realistic with my actual experience. The reason why real estate has become unaffordable for the middle class is because we have too many consultants, books, seminars, videos, websites like this etc. It's almost no different than pumping up a stock. We probably don't need more resources
Your comment: "The reason why real estate has become unaffordable for the middle class is because we have too many consultants, books, seminars, videos, websites"

That's like saying

"The reason why bread has become unaffordable for the middle class is because we have too many bakers, cook books, bakeries, videos of making bread &  websites selling bread."

I'm not quite sure of the reasoning
That's because your conflating supply and demand.  It would read more like,

"The reason why bread has become unaffordable for the middle class is because we have too many nutritionists and life coaches espousing the ability of bread to improve your life.  It'll defeat cancer (bread's intense healing powers give you the best chance to overcome cancer*), give you energy (you'll feel like tiger after eating a slice of bread*) and help you get laid (an elegant slice of bread with wine is the perfect way to a potential lover's heart*)."

*Results compare eating bread vs. eating nothing.

Unlike bread, real estate has limited supply (especially good real estate). So if you are creating more demand by convincing people it's the best investment vehicle, it'll drive prices higher.


This argument that the promotion of Real Estate Investing is the "villain" in making, FORCING real estate prices UP, is just ridiculously infantile in it's nauseating reasoning. 

Let's start with the simple obvious; your talking about INVESTMENT real estate actions. That means it holds an analysis basis of what it can monetize at.    If there were some "PUMP" as declaring, that means NO TRUE DEMAND.     If there were no demand, that monetization would NOT be there.     That would be a SURPLUS of supply.    Do we have a surplus of rental supply? Bueler.... Bueler.... Bueler....? 

NO! We have a net-SHORTAGE.     It is the net-SHORTAGE, and or the BALANCED supply-demand that is EMPOWERING the operational finances of, which is MONITIZATION, and that "profit" is what intones the VALUE for investors. 

Saying home prices are too high for owner occupant buyers is childish, it just is. Any amount of actual data CLEARLY destroys that ridiculous notion, because it's simply NOT true.     It's a Socialist talking point to say such and that's all that it is. 

Fact is investors are MEETING demand. 

You want villains for home prices, talk to your Comrade-in-Chief throwing out $ like it's confetti. Every dollar borrowed into existence, which is EXACTLY what happens when you spend more than you have and borrow it into existence better known as "The National Debt", cut's the "pie" into ever smaller and smaller pieces, because there is ONLY 1 pie! How do you get more slices? You make every slice a bit SMALLER. That's your purchasing power, getting SMALLER, which is reflected in items requiring MORE "slices of pie" to acquire them. 

It's called inflation, maybe you heard of it? 

Seriously kid's: "I can't buy the home I want because.... because.... because that nasty rich person is paying more than I have for it! Why can't everyone STOP buying what I want, it's MINE, I want it, make it LESS!", that's all I hear from this ridiculous argument.     You blame everyone EXCEPT the actual people who are at fault for the way things are. 

In "Rule Book For Radicals" they had a term for you: "useful idiots". 

People this confident in their convictions aren't this obnoxious explaining them.
You can't just say data shows that our argument is false without providing this data. The onus would be on you to provide the data for your counter argument. You understand that it's not an argument to say "it's not true"

You said "saying home prices are too high for owner occupant buyers is childish because demand is being met" then I have to ask if you considered the fact that the only people buying the low inventory are top 5% of earners, small investors, institutions and cash buyers. I'd say the middle class family is the minority of buyers in every transaction if not nearly non existent. Have you also considered that data on the amount of denied mortgages due to not meeting the 40% DTI limit?. The fact that real estate was 3x income decades ago and now it's 12x income. Or the fact that investors meeting the demands as you stated is just investors accepting lower returns. Accepting lower returns is not proof that prices aren't too high nor does it mean we are childish for thinking so.

You are aware that trying to MIS-quote me is a fools errand, because anyone can see what I ACTUALLY wrote and the REAL CONTEXT of it, literally immediately above you right? 

Look, what you posed for an argument, that homes prices are up BECAUSE investors acquiring properties, it IS simple flat-out-WRONG. It's as WRONG as coming arguing that the sun rises in the east, because your living room windows are on the east side of your home. Lol, it's simple flat-out-WRONG.     The data to such is everywhere, simply put an ounce of effort into checking your theory and you will find 0 data support of it kid. And no, it's not my job to fact check for you, it's your job to fact-check YOURSELF, it's called the scientific method. You come up with a theory AND THAN look for supporting data for it, test the theory to confirm or deny theory. 

And now you say "the ONLY people buying are are top 5% or earners".... really, yet another absolutely REDICULOUS statement. Ugh.... come on kid.... 

We are in pricing compression, thanks to Neo-Stagflation. With that volume has collapsed, which is definitively what stagflation does/is. But volume has NOT gone to 0. People, of ALL walks, incomes, shapes and kinds are STILL buying, just in reduced volumes, and with mitigated actions. Again, pricing compression and Neo-Stagflation. 

And actually, per the laws of economics taught at EVERY school of economics, investors making purchases at the prices DOES mean the prices are not "too high". Prices are what they are, by the laws of economics and reality, BECAUSE "the market" as in potential buyers, ARE buying at these prices.     

Look, it's as simple as the definition of "Market Price".    A "market Price" is the price for a good or service at which a seller is willing to sell and a buyer is willing to buy. Full-stop.     Your using a narcissistic market price valuation method, deciding since prices are too high FOR YOU that thus the market price, AND the market as a whole, is wrong, because it all is supposed to conform to YOU, your affordability, your desires, your valuation. And I am sorry to say but the world does not revolve around you. And I will add, your not alone in this narcissistic construct, there is a sizable movement of such. Why, I have no idea, I think it connects with how we've raised this generation, pumping your head with participation awards and all kinds of molly-coddling. 

The market decides the market price. And as long as the market is accepting of these returns, which I will add are far more NORMAL than what your expecting which is of last decade levels that is NOT normal, came via specific convergence of events. 

The fact that market prices are what they are, have held at what they are, IS the evidence and fact that the market prices are NOT "too high". 

And here is the future. As the cost to buy LOWERS (rates decline) prices WILL-GO-UP.    Today's prices REFLECT TODAYS RATE. This is so basic and simple but for some reason so many are missing this very basic, obvious simple fact. Todays prices reflect todays rate. 

So as the rates change, prices will also change. Rates go DOWN prices will, with 100% certainty, NOT go down. Lower cost to purchase, INCREASING purchasing power, and median purchasing dollar amounts WILL-GO-UP. 

And saying but you want it to be uber easy to buy an investment property, well too-bad, that's not how the world of business works, you missed that boat, the EZ Button is GONE. One has to actually work for it now. That's just the reality of the situation. 


 

 James, you have more important things to do than this.