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Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
Quote from @Paul De Luca:
Agreed with @Bill B.
@Greg R. check out this link showing Kiyosaki's predictions from 2011-2021+ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/t...
He's been making the same prediction for over a decade and I can only shake my head. People like him, Patrick Bet David, Peter Schiff, and a host of other people in the space have been "predicting" a crash for many years. I say this as a Kiyosaki fan that has read several of his books.
https://seekingalpha.com/artic...
"For seven years now Mr. Schiff has been proclaiming the American economy was on the verge of collapse, the dollar was going to have a massive decline, and that gold and other commodities were going to skyrocket. For most of those seven years he has been wrong. Gold has been down huge the last two years, the dollar has not lost value and the American economy is stronger, not weaker. Like others before him, Mr. Schiff keeps repeating the same talking points, in hopes that at some point he will be right."
That being said, how’s Schiff’s take on crypto looking these days? From what I can see, crypto is in the toilet and we haven’t even started seeing the layoffs or recession most investment banks and economists are predicting for next year. Meanwhile gold and commodities are the best performing assets of this year.
It would seem the best approach would be to continue dollar cost averaging into 401k/IRA, maintain good cash yields through responsible and not over-leveraged REI, and then maybe have some PM/commodity backed hedging investments. I sleep pretty good at night with that approach, granted I’m definitely very cautious and am not going to leverage my way to some of the success and wealth the folks who’ve been guests on the BP show have done.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Jake Taylor:
Quote from @Paul De Luca:
Agreed with @Bill B.
@Greg R. check out this link showing Kiyosaki's predictions from 2011-2021+ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/t...
He's been making the same prediction for over a decade and I can only shake my head. People like him, Patrick Bet David, Peter Schiff, and a host of other people in the space have been "predicting" a crash for many years. I say this as a Kiyosaki fan that has read several of his books.
https://seekingalpha.com/artic...
"For seven years now Mr. Schiff has been proclaiming the American economy was on the verge of collapse, the dollar was going to have a massive decline, and that gold and other commodities were going to skyrocket. For most of those seven years he has been wrong. Gold has been down huge the last two years, the dollar has not lost value and the American economy is stronger, not weaker. Like others before him, Mr. Schiff keeps repeating the same talking points, in hopes that at some point he will be right."
That being said, how’s Schiff’s take on crypto looking these days? From what I can see, crypto is in the toilet and we haven’t even started seeing the layoffs or recession most investment banks and economists are predicting for next year. Meanwhile gold and commodities are the best performing assets of this year.
It would seem the best approach would be to continue dollar cost averaging into 401k/IRA, maintain good cash yields through responsible and not over-leveraged REI, and then maybe have some PM/commodity backed hedging investments. I sleep pretty good at night with that approach, granted I’m definitely very cautious and am not going to leverage my way to some of the success and wealth the folks who’ve been guests on the BP show have done.
When Lehman collapsed, there's a lag til the stock market and US gov. realized there's a systemic crash and the great crash of 2008 started.
This crypto wipeout is still a puzzle, now BlockFi gonna crash soon (expecting it to impact MSTR, and Paypal) , and it's very quiet.
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
My 20 percent prediction is now on the fed radar.
"A “pessimistic” scenario where prices now retreat by 15% to 20% could subtract 0.5% to 0.7% from inflation-adjusted consumer spending, he wrote in a blog post Tuesday."
That is their pessimistic scenario that "could" happen. Whereas 20% (or 20%+?) has been your high conviction base case, such that you guys labeled anyone who disagrees as "deniers"? In reality you don't agree with the fed as your base case (or the lowest end of your base case?) matches up with the upper end of their pessimistic case.
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Quote from @Nick H.:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
My 20 percent prediction is now on the fed radar.
"A “pessimistic” scenario where prices now retreat by 15% to 20% could subtract 0.5% to 0.7% from inflation-adjusted consumer spending, he wrote in a blog post Tuesday."
That is their pessimistic scenario that "could" happen. Whereas 20% (or 20%+?) has been your high conviction base case, such that you guys labeled anyone who disagrees as "deniers"? In reality you don't agree with the fed as your base case (or the lowest end of your base case?) matches up with the upper end of their pessimistic case.
we have central banks that would like to destroy the economy and take your job
we have a local government that would like to punish the taxpayer and give rewards to the criminals
we have a trusted investment firm that put your money into bogus-scam-ponzi crypto investment
we have banks like wells Fargo that would like to screw your account
we have crypto exchange that trades your money into their own fraud meme coin
Quote from @Nick H.:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
My 20 percent prediction is now on the fed radar.
"A “pessimistic” scenario where prices now retreat by 15% to 20% could subtract 0.5% to 0.7% from inflation-adjusted consumer spending, he wrote in a blog post Tuesday."
That is their pessimistic scenario that "could" happen. Whereas 20% (or 20%+?) has been your high conviction base case, such that you guys labeled anyone who disagrees as "deniers"? In reality you don't agree with the fed as your base case (or the lowest end of your base case?) matches up with the upper end of their pessimistic case.
James says my case is similar to aliens landing.
Quote from @Nick H.:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
My 20 percent prediction is now on the fed radar.
"A “pessimistic” scenario where prices now retreat by 15% to 20% could subtract 0.5% to 0.7% from inflation-adjusted consumer spending, he wrote in a blog post Tuesday."
That is their pessimistic scenario that "could" happen. Whereas 20% (or 20%+?) has been your high conviction base case, such that you guys labeled anyone who disagrees as "deniers"? In reality you don't agree with the fed as your base case (or the lowest end of your base case?) matches up with the upper end of their pessimistic case.
James says my case is similar to aliens landing.
also fed doesn’t want to cause a panic so they just “float” it out there so when it happens they can atleast say we predicted this.
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Nick H.:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
My 20 percent prediction is now on the fed radar.
"A “pessimistic” scenario where prices now retreat by 15% to 20% could subtract 0.5% to 0.7% from inflation-adjusted consumer spending, he wrote in a blog post Tuesday."
That is their pessimistic scenario that "could" happen. Whereas 20% (or 20%+?) has been your high conviction base case, such that you guys labeled anyone who disagrees as "deniers"? In reality you don't agree with the fed as your base case (or the lowest end of your base case?) matches up with the upper end of their pessimistic case.
James says my case is similar to aliens landing.
also fed doesn’t want to cause a panic so they just “float” it out there so when it happens they can atleast say we predicted this.
ok I guess we'll see if it happens. so far according to zillow data avg us home prices have stayed flat the past few months since y'all have been calling for a crash. but anything is possible. think 15-20% being the pessimistic case (10-20% chance?) as the fed says is probably about right, would need a much worse scenario than expected for unemployment/recession/etc to drive 20% imo. time will tell.
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Quote from @John Carbone:
I taught my kid this way. Why unnecessarily live outside to burn money? lol
I agree rental has to go down.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
KPMG even calling for conservatively 15 percent. This is becoming the easiest housing drop prediction in history. And @James Hamling still thinks there should be an alien invasion coming.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
KPMG even calling for conservatively 15 percent. This is becoming the easiest housing drop prediction in history. And @James Hamling still thinks there should be an alien invasion coming.
This is a reason why Silicon Valley real estate is going up still :) LOL I'm so sorry Greg,Victor
The "old tech" company is declaring we are winning against Fed wishes, we raise guidance for the next decade. Apologize for this good news.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/...
Lets crash those new tech company in fintech/crypto, their asset should be zero :) LOL
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I don't believe most of those in the 'non-crash camp' (or the agnostic camp, which is where I am) have said: "no market anywhere in the US will see a 15% reduction anytime in the next several years."
We just don't think the whole US will suddenly drop by that much...
And we can't even agree about what's happening now - Austin is either up, flat, or down depending on who you ask =)
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Quote from @John Carbone:
54%of Gen Z living at home.
Normal market sells 40% to first-time buyers. 26% now.
Median first-time buyer age normal 33. Now 36.
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Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
KPMG even calling for conservatively 15 percent. This is becoming the easiest housing drop prediction in history. And @James Hamling still thinks there should be an alien invasion coming.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
KPMG even calling for conservatively 15 percent. This is becoming the easiest housing drop prediction in history. And @James Hamling still thinks there should be an alien invasion coming.
This is a reason why Silicon Valley real estate is going up still :) LOL I'm so sorry Greg,Victor
The "old tech" company is declaring we are winning against Fed wishes, we raise guidance for the next decade. Apologize for this good news.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/...
Lets crash those new tech company in fintech/crypto, their asset should be zero :) LOL
Carlos too fast on that trigger:
"Update: In addition to the strong results, Cisco (CSCO)
said it would restructure its organization, including real estate. The
plan, which is slated to start in the company's second-quarter, is
expected to result in a pre-tax charge of roughly $600M consisting of
severance and one-time termination benefits, as well as charges for real
estate and other costs.
"
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Victor S.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
KPMG even calling for conservatively 15 percent. This is becoming the easiest housing drop prediction in history. And @James Hamling still thinks there should be an alien invasion coming.
This is a reason why Silicon Valley real estate is going up still :) LOL I'm so sorry Greg,Victor
The "old tech" company is declaring we are winning against Fed wishes, we raise guidance for the next decade. Apologize for this good news.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/...
Lets crash those new tech company in fintech/crypto, their asset should be zero :) LOL
Carlos too fast on that trigger:
"Update: In addition to the strong results, Cisco (CSCO)
said it would restructure its organization, including real estate. The
plan, which is slated to start in the company's second-quarter, is
expected to result in a pre-tax charge of roughly $600M consisting of
severance and one-time termination benefits, as well as charges for real
estate and other costs.
"
yea I think it's valid for every company as people work in hybrid mode, most office buildings are half empty, the company also known to let go people as full time, but they hire an equal number replacements or more in india or in US location (maybe in NC) as contractor.
It's basically replace the US job with india guy mode, very typical here, so the layoff doesnt impact earning.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
I am actually more curious why we have not had stock market crashes after all crypto exchange crashes, the number of dollar losses in those scams are fundamentally so huge it could wipeout a country to poverty. Note that those crypto company was invested by the company like Blackrock,GS,JP Morgan, and even Singaporean SWF etc. Why there's no contagion still ? The vix is at all time low indicating no fear. There seems eerie quiet about what's going on.
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Where's the collapse????
This who conversation has gone on for weeks upon weeks now, and EVRY TIME it's a "o-o-oh, it's coming, it's coming, just starting, any day, any hour, it's coming" aaaaannnd NOTHING.
And the most IDIOTIC of excuses, pointing out EXACTLY what I and a few others said of localized market specific adjustments, namely west coast, stepping back in consolidation LARGER then national average, but you apocalyptic-drunk-tinfoil-hat-wearing, tora-bora-cave-dwelling lot actually call this out as "proof" of your "Collapse". You use evidence of NO collapse, to "prove" your collapse nonsense....
This just goes to show how disconnected from facts or reality this whole Doom-Preaching group is. They said real estate was collapsing, a crash is where we would be BY NOW, and it NEVER HAPPENED. Ok, how much more do I need to point this little fact out; NEVER HAPPENED! Yet here we are, they say absolutely 0 of this fact, and are still pumping away at the fear-press, telling you it's-just-around-the-corner...... OMG, that's there freaking chant at the alter of fear-porn....
I call ALL of you out! Explain yourselves. Greg, feel to chime in to explain how your 100% absolute certainty NEVER HAPPENED.
I will say it, I was right and you were wrong. It's important because I base my projections on FACTS, data and math where yours is based on FEELINGS.... OMG the cult of "I feel", it's nauseating.
You nuts promised me a MINIMUM 20% CRASH of NATIONAL MEDIAN home values, so, where'd it go? What happened? You all said AT LEAST 20%, and CRASH, WHAT HAPPENED? And for the love of God if anyone says "it's coming".......
- James Hamling
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Victor S.:
All valley company does this often. That 600m is a one-time write-off. What really matters here is the record booking, the actual number of sales which is much higher than expected. Please note this is an industry-wide phenomenon, in this industry, the order is still growing and not reducing.
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am actually more curious why we have not had stock market crashes after all crypto exchange crashes, the number of dollar losses in those scams are fundamentally so huge it could wipeout a country to poverty. Note that those crypto company was invested by the company like Blackrock,GS,JP Morgan, and even Singaporean SWF etc. Why there's no contagion still ? The vix is at all time low indicating no fear. There seems eerie quiet about what's going on.
The market is where the $ ran to. Dumping crypto and rushing into the "old standard" vehicles. Yes, I am VERY bearish on bitcoin, especially now that Fed is publicly giving notice of it's digital dollar and it is now in implementation phase. All other cryptos are soon to go the way of beanie babies.
- James Hamling
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am actually more curious why we have not had stock market crashes after all crypto exchange crashes, the number of dollar losses in those scams are fundamentally so huge it could wipeout a country to poverty. Note that those crypto company was invested by the company like Blackrock,GS,JP Morgan, and even Singaporean SWF etc. Why there's no contagion still ? The vix is at all time low indicating no fear. There seems eerie quiet about what's going on.
The market is where the $ ran to. Dumping crypto and rushing into the "old standard" vehicles. Yes, I am VERY bearish on bitcoin, especially now that Fed is publicly giving notice of it's digital dollar and it is now in implementation phase. All other cryptos are soon to go the way of beanie babies.
my curiosity is that there're those 100 billion dollars for the crypto investment lying somewhere right, I meant at the end, folks or organizations that do this crypto crap should just put that money into the banks, or maybe not? where that money goes? is it in a jungle somewhere, Bahamian beach, suiss bank , a coffee shop in SHanghai ? LOL
Imagine if a bank like jp morgan put the customer deposit into one of the ftx/binance accounts, that seems so scary, it's possible because they seem very attracted to the crypto world as well. It's even difficult to trust the traditional bank right now.
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am actually more curious why we have not had stock market crashes after all crypto exchange crashes, the number of dollar losses in those scams are fundamentally so huge it could wipeout a country to poverty. Note that those crypto company was invested by the company like Blackrock,GS,JP Morgan, and even Singaporean SWF etc. Why there's no contagion still ? The vix is at all time low indicating no fear. There seems eerie quiet about what's going on.
The market is where the $ ran to. Dumping crypto and rushing into the "old standard" vehicles. Yes, I am VERY bearish on bitcoin, especially now that Fed is publicly giving notice of it's digital dollar and it is now in implementation phase. All other cryptos are soon to go the way of beanie babies.
my curiosity is that there're those 100 billion dollars for the crypto investment lying somewhere right, I meant at the end, folks or organizations that do this crypto crap should just put that money into the banks, or maybe not? where that money goes? is it in a jungle somewhere, Bahamian beach, suiss bank , a coffee shop in SHanghai ? LOL
Imagine if a bank like jp morgan put the customer deposit into one of the ftx/binance accounts, that seems so scary, it's possible because they seem very attracted to the crypto world as well. It's even difficult to trust the traditional bank right now.
I don't believe there is nearly the risk exposure for institutional level anything in crypto your thinking there is.
We look back the last many months we see this slow bleed of crypto, I believe with total certainty that was institutions liquidating out positions, quietly and in an organized fashion as to not rile the "retail" investor. Because in large part, the "retail" investor in crypto has a mindset verging on cult-like obsession with crypto, it's true, if you ever meet one and spoke with one you know exactly what I am speaking of and if totally clueless what I am talking about, fair chance you are one, lol.
Those who have utilized crypto in a utilitarian means, have had 0 reason to exit as they have consistently improved in there utilization, so that segment wouldn't be the "bleed".
All indicators in institutional lvl $, they knew they were playing a fad, riding a wave, and also smart enough to know without doubt regulation, control and centralizing was an inevitability leading to a drop in range of 99.9% value.
I have spoken with many serious Bitcoin investors on this, because i myself was once upon a time a bitcoin miner myself, were talking way back pre-fork way way back. Thing is, when i talk Fed and IMF acting in a manner to centralize, there is no argument, it's universally accepted that it will happen only question is when. But where we differ is they were so, entrenched, into the crypto-cult, that they thought bitcoin and EHT and others would stand tall against a Fed issued, regulated, sanctioned token even after a gov action to declare such as currency for legal tender and ban all other tokens for utilization as legal tender or currency.
It boggles my mind how they can say "oh yeah, that day is coming, no doubt, but down will become up, fire cold, water hot, and Fed will loose out to the thousands of various wildly volatile cryptos vs a stabilized regulated one via those who literally control $ on planet Earth". The only place I know of any such thought patterns is cults, seriously.
I don't think it's a coincidence the timing of what's going on now in crypto, and the Fed's launch of testing there crypto. I also don't think it a coincidence of institutional $ moving out of crypto the last ~12 mnths. yes, I have absolute certainty there was insider knowledge. There always is, the thought that these organizations operate 100% above board is an infantile one, it is.
I believe the hope is for a cascade effect through crypto world, because it set's a perfect stage for the Fed to come riding in as the hero of the day with there digital dollar to rescue everyone. Things that are too convenient of timing, are all but never by chance.
- James Hamling
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Quote from @Mike Dymski:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
KPMG even calling for conservatively 15 percent. This is becoming the easiest housing drop prediction in history. And @James Hamling still thinks there should be an alien invasion coming.
Really.... "easiest housing drop prediction in history". So, that's true, IF your following my forecasts that have been CORRECT about NO-"crash" imminent in real estate, yeah, that was SUPER easy for me to predict, because I use this weird thing called facts, knowledge and experience.
Oh... lol, your trying to say real estate is collapsing, seriously, still, after being dead-wrong how many times now, ohkie-dokie..... yeah, so, how many times do you need to be proven wrong before the whole "it's coming, it's coming" BS ends? Serious question, please give us a solid date so we can end this merry-go-round of "it's coming, it's coming".
Oh, and if like to fling articles at each other, here ya go https://www.forbes.com/advisor...
- James Hamling
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am actually more curious why we have not had stock market crashes after all crypto exchange crashes, the number of dollar losses in those scams are fundamentally so huge it could wipeout a country to poverty. Note that those crypto company was invested by the company like Blackrock,GS,JP Morgan, and even Singaporean SWF etc. Why there's no contagion still ? The vix is at all time low indicating no fear. There seems eerie quiet about what's going on.
The market is where the $ ran to. Dumping crypto and rushing into the "old standard" vehicles. Yes, I am VERY bearish on bitcoin, especially now that Fed is publicly giving notice of it's digital dollar and it is now in implementation phase. All other cryptos are soon to go the way of beanie babies.
my curiosity is that there're those 100 billion dollars for the crypto investment lying somewhere right, I meant at the end, folks or organizations that do this crypto crap should just put that money into the banks, or maybe not? where that money goes? is it in a jungle somewhere, Bahamian beach, suiss bank , a coffee shop in SHanghai ? LOL
Imagine if a bank like jp morgan put the customer deposit into one of the ftx/binance accounts, that seems so scary, it's possible because they seem very attracted to the crypto world as well. It's even difficult to trust the traditional bank right now.
I don't believe there is nearly the risk exposure for institutional level anything in crypto your thinking there is.
We look back the last many months we see this slow bleed of crypto, I believe with total certainty that was institutions liquidating out positions, quietly and in an organized fashion as to not rile the "retail" investor. Because in large part, the "retail" investor in crypto has a mindset verging on cult-like obsession with crypto, it's true, if you ever meet one and spoke with one you know exactly what I am speaking of and if totally clueless what I am talking about, fair chance you are one, lol.
Those who have utilized crypto in a utilitarian means, have had 0 reason to exit as they have consistently improved in there utilization, so that segment wouldn't be the "bleed".
All indicators in institutional lvl $, they knew they were playing a fad, riding a wave, and also smart enough to know without doubt regulation, control and centralizing was an inevitability leading to a drop in range of 99.9% value.
When I was young, I've seen so many gigantic scams after scam during the financial crisis, from Bre-X if one remembers, to the fraud where the bank owner took all the money from their own bank and ran away all the way to China ..... hiding there for decade and slowly acquiring new business and become the new tycoon.
So this guy SBF, is robbing their own client, and then using the proceed to purchase real estate in Bahama, but he only stole 3 billion (maybe much more)..... the money lost in this crypto world is reaching three trillion USD. Almost reaching Lehman's in terms of dollar value.