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Updated over 1 year ago, 07/25/2023
Is the Disney Downturn Permanent?
I've been thinking about investing in a high-end STR in the Kissimmee/Davenport market (Reunion, Encore), but have seen that attendance at Disney World is way down. Most Airbnb calendars in that area are completely open for the next several months.
For any STR owners in this area, have you experienced this downturn? Are you concerned about the long-term viability of STRs in this area or do you think it's a blip? Any feedback from actual owners in the area is much appreciated.
Quote from @Ryan Moyer:
I don't own any STRs in Orlando but I lived in the area during the last down turn and my family travels to Disney almost every year. My biggest concern with the Disney market are those massive resorts.
If I have the choice of staying at Animal Kingdom Lodge or the Grand Floridian vs a vacation rental I'm going to take the resort every time. Easy park access, huge pools, and resort activities are really hard to beat. Not to mention the look on our kids faces when there's a giraffe that we can watch from our balcony.
Obviously if you are traveling with a large group of people then a vacation rental might be a better option, but otherwise it feels like the resorts are the more premium offering. That's a big difference between the Orlando market vs the Smokies or Destin. I feel like in those markets a cabin or a house by the beach are the preferred option for most guests.
- Rock Star Extraordinaire
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Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
Several months ago, I said on here that Disney was headed down hill due to jumping in political moves that should be left to political people. Many disagreed with me, yet here we are months later and like I predicted numbers are falling. Airdna has Orlando listed as the top declined location for STR revenue at -10%.
No, I would not purchase a home there right now, unless you plan on personally using it a decent bit of the year.
I'm sorry, but you have no evidence whatsoever that a downturn has any relation just because you feel it's so. Correlation is not causation. I don't know if you have an STR in this market (I do) but as @Ryan Moyer noted below this is just nonsense. Anyone who thinks anybody cares about things like that when they are spending thousands on a vacation is just delusional. People go to Disney because they like Disney or their kids want to go to Disney. No one, except for maybe some real crazies, tell their kids "Sorry kids, we can't go to Disney because they're too woke - we'll have to pick somewhere more conservative". Dollywood has a "LGBTQ" day and Dolly Parton came out in support of gay marriage, yet no one is claiming Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge's downturn is related, because it's not - that's all nonsense.
The downturn is simply market forces. Lots of people supercharged their vacations when COVID was raging, buoyed by lots of government money, and there's an inevitable hangover. If your hypothesis had any merit, "conservative" areas like Branson (and Gatlinburg, in my backyard) should be picking up the slack - yet Branson's tourism revenue is down almost 10% for the year compared to last year. Are they too un-woke?
- JD Martin
- Podcast Guest on Show #243
- Rock Star Extraordinaire
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Quote from @Ryan Moyer:
Quote from @James Nicholson:
@Collin Hays - that's precisely the concern I have. Is Disney going to turn into the next Bud Light for large segments of the population? If so, then this may not be such a temporary downturn. But on the other hand, the Disney brand and experience are so strong that it seems like they would be able to withstand this and make adjustments.
Hard to invest in a market with these uncertainties.
Disney has always been at the forefront of inclusion, diversity, hope. That is essentially their brand. It's not anything new. The people complaining about it now are the same type that complained about Disney movies with girls as the lead 50 years ago. They just have a louder megaphone now, with social media rather than the Thanksgiving dinner table.
But that group has always existed, and they've never been Disney's target demographic. They weren't going to Disney anyway.
Disney is an area that blew up during post-covid revenge travel, and has settled back some as that temporary travel trend recedes. Disney tourism is down basically the same amount as tourism for the entire state of Florida. The areas that blew up the most out of Covid are the ones seeing the largest pullbacks now. It's not two posts down from this one that this same exact thread exists about the pullback in travel in the Smoky Mountains.
It's no different in Disney or the Smokies or the Emerald Coast or Gulf Shores a dozen other markets that were very strong coming out of Covid. Temporary travel boom led to huge increases in supply, and as that temporary boom normalizes we're left with top/standout properties that still perform very well, and average homes lost in the shuffle of huge supply alongside normalizing demand. It's the most basic principle of supply and demand.
Being in this business requires sorting through a lot of fluff. I'm sorry, but this is fluff. Here on the ground, the only actual feedback or cancelations we've gotten are actually the opposite with some bookings being lost to Hispanic travelers that are afraid of the governor's immigration policies (actual guest message), but even those I'm sure are barely a rounding error and mostly fluff in the grand scheme of things.
So you have a bunch of markets acting basically exactly the same. Smokies, Disney, Miami, Gulf Shores, etc. But one of them happens to not align with people politically so they point at that one and say "See, I told you so! It's because they don't agree with my politics!". People just can't help themselves. But it's fluff. If you're worried about Disney itself I wouldn't be. When people get tired of the stuff they have they'll throw another $5 billion at something new. Visitors are down a bit from peak revenge travel, but still way up overall. The wait for 7 dwarves mine train right now is 120 minutes and the extra cost lightning lanes are sold out for the day.
They'll eventually have to give back some of the price increases they jacked up 100% during overwhelming covid demand, and things will level out. Which will probably start after the next earnings report.
So shed no tears for Disney, they'll be fine. The bigger concern is the 40,000 vacation rental properties there alongside the hundreds of massive hotels. If you want to do STR here you've gotta be prepared to stand out. There is just too much supply to be average here, which some people were able to skate by on during the post-covid travel explosion in the area. But ask the person buying an average 3br home in Destin with no pool for $1M or an average 3br forested cherry cabin in Gatlinburg with no view for $800k right now how they're doing and they'll say the same. And last I checked, neither the ocean nor the mountains and streams of Tennessee implied any stance about anything.
Just my $0.02, as someone hosting and elbow deep in this market every day. Take it for what it's worth, and at the end of the day make your own decisions. Because the biggest mistake anyone makes in investing is listening to people like me or any of the rest of us on the internet too closely.
Thank you - I am sometimes really appalled by what some people claiming to be experts actually post on this site. This is exactly right.
- JD Martin
- Podcast Guest on Show #243
Quote from @JD Martin:
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
Several months ago, I said on here that Disney was headed down hill due to jumping in political moves that should be left to political people. Many disagreed with me, yet here we are months later and like I predicted numbers are falling. Airdna has Orlando listed as the top declined location for STR revenue at -10%.
No, I would not purchase a home there right now, unless you plan on personally using it a decent bit of the year.
I'm sorry, but you have no evidence whatsoever that a downturn has any relation just because you feel it's so. Correlation is not causation. I don't know if you have an STR in this market (I do) but as @Ryan Moyer noted below this is just nonsense. Anyone who thinks anybody cares about things like that when they are spending thousands on a vacation is just delusional. People go to Disney because they like Disney or their kids want to go to Disney. No one, except for maybe some real crazies, tell their kids "Sorry kids, we can't go to Disney because they're too woke - we'll have to pick somewhere more conservative". Dollywood has a "LGBTQ" day and Dolly Parton came out in support of gay marriage, yet no one is claiming Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge's downturn is related, because it's not - that's all nonsense.
The downturn is simply market forces. Lots of people supercharged their vacations when COVID was raging, buoyed by lots of government money, and there's an inevitable hangover. If your hypothesis had any merit, "conservative" areas like Branson (and Gatlinburg, in my backyard) should be picking up the slack - yet Branson's tourism revenue is down almost 10% for the year compared to last year. Are they too un-woke?
Sorry but YES parents are saying they won't go to Disney, it's everywhere if you actually look and pay attention to what is going on. When your actively showcasing certain things that cross a line, you rise up the momma and papa bears that may have never before shown themselves.
This thread is perilously close to turning into an attack on certain posters due to their opinion(s). I sure hope we can avoid that, and allow a variety of opinions without retribution, mocking, or insulting.
- Collin Hays
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Quote from @JD Martin:
Sorry my friend, you are usually pretty spot-on.....but your bias is causing you to miss on this one. I know you hang in different groups, talk to different people, read different papers, watch different news, etc...but this is a real thing.
Literally half the country is totally fed up with the woke BS and a revolt (of sorts) is underway. All you need do is find a conservative friend and ask if you can read their Facebook feed, talk to their friends, listen to their radio, or whatever flips your pickle.
Of course we can't blame Disney's downturn completely on this phenomena, there are other factors at play, as you noted.....but to ignore and ridicule this as you and @Ryan Moyer have done is just silly. Anyone who does, does it at their own peril. This is not simply 'market forces'. See Bud Light, or Target, or now even formerly conservative Chick Fila....
Companies need to stop. Half of the country - and that's a lot of people - are done with that game. And any savvy investor (that's all of us) needs to take note.
Just my .02....rant off....
Numbers may be down because people don’t want to spend their money in Florida anymore. Call it the anti “anti-woke” effect. Many groups of people don’t feel welcome there. Plus I never understood why anybody in their right mind would sweat their a***s off in FL when they can go to Disneyland in 70 degree sunny weather and see the same thing.
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Sorry my friend, you are usually pretty spot-on.....but your bias is causing you to miss on this one. I know you hang in different groups, talk to different people, read different papers, watch different news, etc...but this is a real thing.
Literally half the country is totally fed up with the woke BS and a revolt (of sorts) is underway. All you need do is find a conservative friend and ask if you can read their Facebook feed, talk to their friends, listen to their radio, or whatever flips your pickle.
Of course we can't blame Disney's downturn completely on this phenomena, there are other factors at play, as you noted.....but to ignore and ridicule this as you and @Ryan Moyer have done is just silly. Anyone who does, does it at their own peril. This is not simply 'market forces'. See Bud Light, or Target, or now even formerly conservative Chick Fila....
Companies need to stop. Half of the country - and that's a lot of people - are done with that game. And any savvy investor (that's all of us) needs to take note.
Just my .02....rant off....
Completely disagree. The faux outrage at these companies is going to fade fast. The more the failing DeSantis tries to score political points against these companies quicker the outrage will fade. Soon, he will be an afterthought and these iconic brands will be just fine. Anheiser Busch stock already recovered and is higher than this time last year.
- Rock Star Extraordinaire
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Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
Several months ago, I said on here that Disney was headed down hill due to jumping in political moves that should be left to political people. Many disagreed with me, yet here we are months later and like I predicted numbers are falling. Airdna has Orlando listed as the top declined location for STR revenue at -10%.
No, I would not purchase a home there right now, unless you plan on personally using it a decent bit of the year.
I'm sorry, but you have no evidence whatsoever that a downturn has any relation just because you feel it's so. Correlation is not causation. I don't know if you have an STR in this market (I do) but as @Ryan Moyer noted below this is just nonsense. Anyone who thinks anybody cares about things like that when they are spending thousands on a vacation is just delusional. People go to Disney because they like Disney or their kids want to go to Disney. No one, except for maybe some real crazies, tell their kids "Sorry kids, we can't go to Disney because they're too woke - we'll have to pick somewhere more conservative". Dollywood has a "LGBTQ" day and Dolly Parton came out in support of gay marriage, yet no one is claiming Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge's downturn is related, because it's not - that's all nonsense.
The downturn is simply market forces. Lots of people supercharged their vacations when COVID was raging, buoyed by lots of government money, and there's an inevitable hangover. If your hypothesis had any merit, "conservative" areas like Branson (and Gatlinburg, in my backyard) should be picking up the slack - yet Branson's tourism revenue is down almost 10% for the year compared to last year. Are they too un-woke?
Sorry but YES parents are saying they won't go to Disney, it's everywhere if you actually look and pay attention to what is going on. When your actively showcasing certain things that cross a line, you rise up the momma and papa bears that may have never before shown themselves.
Again, your anecdotes is not evidence. You provide me real, scientifically conducted evidence that there is a direct link between Disney attendance and anything they've said and I'll look at it. Until then it's just nonsense from aggrieved people. Further, unless you have an STR in this market and have had guests cancel or similar your opinion on this is largely meaningless and without any on-the-ground basis; it would be like me handing out advice on AirBnb Co-hosting when I haven't done it. Here are some real facts: Disney's market share of the film industry in terms of dollars grossed from ticket sales is larger now than any time since 1995 and has increased every year since 2020, which is the opposite of some supposed backlash.
- JD Martin
- Podcast Guest on Show #243
It’s kind of comical how both sides go back and forth on this. Objectively speaking, Disney is losing money on their streaming and their new movies. Disney movies are performing terribly in the theatres. Barbie and Oppenheimer just had a near record box office weekend, so it’s not that movies are just “down”.
There is clearly an affect being had affecting Disney and Orlando. At the same time, a lot of it is also related to just economic factors, because it’s also true that other markets are also down from last year. We won’t have the full data points until we get through this year, but for someone to say political stances aren’t impacting Disney is just delusional whether you agree or disagree. Alienating half of the population is going to have an impact on business, how much of an impact I don’t know, but it’s definitely material. Look at what happened with bud light, they can’t even give their beer away for free.
- Rock Star Extraordinaire
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Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Sorry my friend, you are usually pretty spot-on.....but your bias is causing you to miss on this one. I know you hang in different groups, talk to different people, read different papers, watch different news, etc...but this is a real thing.
Literally half the country is totally fed up with the woke BS and a revolt (of sorts) is underway. All you need do is find a conservative friend and ask if you can read their Facebook feed, talk to their friends, listen to their radio, or whatever flips your pickle.
Of course we can't blame Disney's downturn completely on this phenomena, there are other factors at play, as you noted.....but to ignore and ridicule this as you and @Ryan Moyer have done is just silly. Anyone who does, does it at their own peril. This is not simply 'market forces'. See Bud Light, or Target, or now even formerly conservative Chick Fila....
Companies need to stop. Half of the country - and that's a lot of people - are done with that game. And any savvy investor (that's all of us) needs to take note.
Just my .02....rant off....
Most of my friends are "conservatives". Virtually none of them care one way or the other what Disney thinks about anything. Comparing someone buying a different $10 six pack of beer with someone planning a several-thousand dollar vacation makes no sense whatsoever. Besides, if this was true, why would Universal Studio, Sea World, Legoland, and other attractions also be suffering attendance declines? I don't hear anyone claiming Sea World has turned "woke".
I get it that the whole Disney v DeSantis thing makes for satisfying press but I guarantee it has negligible effects on anything when it comes to money.
- JD Martin
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Quote from @Melissa Hasson:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Sorry my friend, you are usually pretty spot-on.....but your bias is causing you to miss on this one. I know you hang in different groups, talk to different people, read different papers, watch different news, etc...but this is a real thing.
Literally half the country is totally fed up with the woke BS and a revolt (of sorts) is underway. All you need do is find a conservative friend and ask if you can read their Facebook feed, talk to their friends, listen to their radio, or whatever flips your pickle.
Of course we can't blame Disney's downturn completely on this phenomena, there are other factors at play, as you noted.....but to ignore and ridicule this as you and @Ryan Moyer have done is just silly. Anyone who does, does it at their own peril. This is not simply 'market forces'. See Bud Light, or Target, or now even formerly conservative Chick Fila....
Companies need to stop. Half of the country - and that's a lot of people - are done with that game. And any savvy investor (that's all of us) needs to take note.
Just my .02....rant off....
Most of my friends are "conservatives". Virtually none of them care one way or the other what Disney thinks about anything. Comparing someone buying a different $10 six pack of beer with someone planning a several-thousand dollar vacation makes no sense whatsoever. Besides, if this was true, why would Universal Studio, Sea World, Legoland, and other attractions also be suffering attendance declines? I don't hear anyone claiming Sea World has turned "woke".
I get it that the whole Disney v DeSantis thing makes for satisfying press but I guarantee it has negligible effects on anything when it comes to money.
Why are Disney movies performing so badly?
- Rock Star Extraordinaire
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Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Sorry my friend, you are usually pretty spot-on.....but your bias is causing you to miss on this one. I know you hang in different groups, talk to different people, read different papers, watch different news, etc...but this is a real thing.
Literally half the country is totally fed up with the woke BS and a revolt (of sorts) is underway. All you need do is find a conservative friend and ask if you can read their Facebook feed, talk to their friends, listen to their radio, or whatever flips your pickle.
Of course we can't blame Disney's downturn completely on this phenomena, there are other factors at play, as you noted.....but to ignore and ridicule this as you and @Ryan Moyer have done is just silly. Anyone who does, does it at their own peril. This is not simply 'market forces'. See Bud Light, or Target, or now even formerly conservative Chick Fila....
Companies need to stop. Half of the country - and that's a lot of people - are done with that game. And any savvy investor (that's all of us) needs to take note.
Just my .02....rant off....
Most of my friends are "conservatives". Virtually none of them care one way or the other what Disney thinks about anything. Comparing someone buying a different $10 six pack of beer with someone planning a several-thousand dollar vacation makes no sense whatsoever. Besides, if this was true, why would Universal Studio, Sea World, Legoland, and other attractions also be suffering attendance declines? I don't hear anyone claiming Sea World has turned "woke".
I get it that the whole Disney v DeSantis thing makes for satisfying press but I guarantee it has negligible effects on anything when it comes to money.
Why are Disney movies performing so badly?
Because they suck? That would be my guess. They've put out a bunch of clunkers lately. Just having a name doesn't guarantee you success in anything; you still need a good product. Someone might argue that they should spend more time worrying about their products than anything else and that would be hard to argue with, because no one is going to care about your position on anything if your product is withering.
- JD Martin
- Podcast Guest on Show #243
Quote from @JD Martin:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Sorry my friend, you are usually pretty spot-on.....but your bias is causing you to miss on this one. I know you hang in different groups, talk to different people, read different papers, watch different news, etc...but this is a real thing.
Literally half the country is totally fed up with the woke BS and a revolt (of sorts) is underway. All you need do is find a conservative friend and ask if you can read their Facebook feed, talk to their friends, listen to their radio, or whatever flips your pickle.
Of course we can't blame Disney's downturn completely on this phenomena, there are other factors at play, as you noted.....but to ignore and ridicule this as you and @Ryan Moyer have done is just silly. Anyone who does, does it at their own peril. This is not simply 'market forces'. See Bud Light, or Target, or now even formerly conservative Chick Fila....
Companies need to stop. Half of the country - and that's a lot of people - are done with that game. And any savvy investor (that's all of us) needs to take note.
Just my .02....rant off....
Most of my friends are "conservatives". Virtually none of them care one way or the other what Disney thinks about anything. Comparing someone buying a different $10 six pack of beer with someone planning a several-thousand dollar vacation makes no sense whatsoever. Besides, if this was true, why would Universal Studio, Sea World, Legoland, and other attractions also be suffering attendance declines? I don't hear anyone claiming Sea World has turned "woke".
I get it that the whole Disney v DeSantis thing makes for satisfying press but I guarantee it has negligible effects on anything when it comes to money.
Why are Disney movies performing so badly?
Because they suck? That would be my guess. They've put out a bunch of clunkers lately. Just having a name doesn't guarantee you success in anything; you still need a good product. Someone might argue that they should spend more time worrying about their products than anything else and that would be hard to argue with, because no one is going to care about your position on anything if your product is withering.
Back when I was a kid we always went to Disney movies without knowing if it was going to “suck”. Part of Disney's business model is getting kids to watch the movies and then the kids wanting to get their parents to go to Disney to see the characters. It’s not a good sign when kids are not wanting to see the movies (or the parents aren’t allowing it).
Maybe the movies “suck” because they are spending too much time trying to come up with storylines that 95 percent or more don’t relate with. Which I guess in a way goes back to the “woke” backlash.
it’s impossible to put a number on it, but even a 5 percent hit to Disney demand could result in double digit impact on revenues.
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Quote from @JD Martin:
b) Actually, you get enough anecdotes together and they mean more than facts. Scientists even have a saying -"800 anecdotes make a fact"
- Rock Star Extraordinaire
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Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @JD Martin:
b) Actually, you get enough anecdotes together and they mean more than facts. Scientists even have a saying -"800 anecdotes make a fact"
You can't provide any facts that support your idea here so there's really nothing left to talk about here. You believe this to be true because you just feel that it is, and that's not proof to reasonable people. I'm not cherry picking anything because unlike you I don't care if Disney is woke, unwoke, or anything else.
- JD Martin
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Actually I don't either. It just makes for a good discussion.
Peace, Bro....
I don’t give one whit about Disney, but it doesn’t take a genius to see that companies that are dipping into politics and social justice are summarily getting creamed. Just ask My Pillow, Target, Budweiser, etc.
Cancel culture is real.
- Collin Hays
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Wow, most political topics go sideways by now. No insults or name calling yet. All in all this is just opinion based and I sincerely doubt anyone will change their mind. Most who believe Disney is being destroyed by some intense nationwide boycott also thinks critical race theory is being taught in daycare, there's a huge wall that was paid for by Mexican deep state transgeners, and Dr. Fauci is satan. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but in reality, Disney has always be into diversity, inclusion and against bigotry. The people who would be so upset by that would never be there in the first place. The only thing that has changed is politicians/pundits are gaining wealth and power by manipulating emotions. This is why politics should not be in business. These people honestly dont care about you and you shouldn't let what they say contaminate your business reasoning. I understand if feels cool to think you are part of some mass movement but in reality most dont care about that stuff. I live in the left leaning DC area. So many times I see people gassed up by certain rhetoric they believe from cable news. They ride trough the city with confederate flags on their truck or stickers on their cars insulting liberals and honestly think they are making a statement. They soon discover no one is paying attention and they are the only one thinking about whatever point they are attempting to make. Again, this is all opinion based but I do encourage some to not take all this stuff fed to you as fact. Be receptive to alternative views and dont let people who couldnt give two shts about you screw up your business.
- Rock Star Extraordinaire
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I believe this topic has pretty much run its course at this point.
- JD Martin
- Podcast Guest on Show #243