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Updated about 3 years ago, 09/30/2021
COVID-19 vs. Basic Freedoms
Let me start by being crystal clear. I am very sympathetic to all of those who have been exposed to COVID-19 – those who have either struggled through severe (or even mild) symptoms and certainly those who have passed away or lost loved ones due to complications from this virus. The magnitude in which this virus has overtaken our entire world is unprecedented and we need to protect those who are most at risk… BUT, at a certain point, we need to ask ourselves, “Are we doing more harm than good by shutting down the entire country?”
This country was built on freedom. Freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom to pretty much do whatever we want within the confines of the law. It’s our right as Americans to willfully make decisions that are in the best interest of ourselves and our families. Since when can a governing body tell us what we can and cannot lawfully do? I can’t go see my brother at his house (a private residence, by the way), under the pretense that we both agree to see each other, without the risk of being handcuffed, arrested and thrown into a police car?
Sure, we hear and read all about the death rate from COVID-19 and how the number of cases goes up by the thousands on a daily basis. Any death is a terrible death – no one wants to see anyone suffer or die because of an infectious disease. But we also need to take a look at the reality of these statistics. The people that are most at risk of developing complications from this virus are the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The VAST majority of deaths related to this virus are those who fall into one or both of those categories.
For example, in New York, the epicenter of this virus in America, there have been 118,000+ confirmed cases and 10,000+ people have died from COVID-19. As of Monday 4/13, a total of 128 of these deaths were people who had no pre-existing health issues. On a percentage basis, that’s less than 0.11% death rate for those without pre-existing conditions. 0.11% - that’s the same death rate as Influenza.
If I want to take the risk and go outside, go to work, go to a sporting event, go to a concert, go to a bar, go to a restaurant, go to my brother’s house(!), then that it MY right to do that. If someone else wants to quarantine, stay home, not go to work, or not do anything social, that is THEIR right to do exactly that. We need to make decisions for ourselves, not be dictated to stay at home and wear a mask when I want to get into my car.
Yes, my real estate business has been put to a complete stop. Rents will be harder to obtain the longer this goes on and lender will be less likely to underwrite as things become more and more uncertain. That's not good news for any of us. But my frustrations go well beyond real estate. They expand to all aspects of human life and our civil liberties.
I can’t stand idly by and watch our country turn into a Totalitarianism state that I don’t even recognize anymore. It’s time to open up the country. It’s time to open up the economy. It’s time to get back to work and get back to our normal lives. If you agree (or even disagree), please respond back to this and let’s have a discussion about this.
I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with your viewpoints, as I feel not reopening the country soon will have FAR WORSE consequences than the impact this disease is having... but your math is off. WAY WAY OFF. The actual death rate for COVID in NY is currently at 7.7%, while the US average is currently at 5.5% (see below for math).
According to the CDC, a typical year (2018-2019 in this example), for influenza in the US sees 35.5 Million flu cases (# of people infected) and 34,200 deaths from flu. They calculate death rate by # of people that died from flu divided by # of people that were infected with flu. That calculation is:
34,200 / 35,500,000 = .00096338, which equals .096%, rounded up to 0.1%
So the normal flu has a death rate of 0.1%, including people with pre-existing health issues.
As of today, 4/22, NY has 256,555 cases of COVID, and 19,693 deaths from COVID, including people with pre-existing health issues.
Death rate is calculated the same as flu, # of deaths from COVID divided by # of infected. That calculation is:
19,693 / 256,555 = .076759, which equals 7.68%, rounded up would be 7.7% death rate in NY.
By your numbers, even on 4/13, the calc would be 10,000 / 118,000 = 8.5% death rate in NY.
As you can see, your numbers are WAY OFF. Let me know if you'd like to do a RE deal sometime. We can use your math. Just kidding, bad joke.
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with your viewpoints, as I feel not reopening the country soon will have FAR WORSE consequences than the impact this disease is having... but your math is off. WAY WAY OFF. The actual death rate for COVID in NY is currently at 7.7%, while the US average is currently at 5.5% (see below for math).
According to the CDC, a typical year (2018-2019 in this example), for influenza in the US sees 35.5 Million flu cases (# of people infected) and 34,200 deaths from flu. They calculate death rate by # of people that died from flu divided by # of people that were infected with flu. That calculation is:
34,200 / 35,500,000 = .00096338, which equals .096%, rounded up to 0.1%
So the normal flu has a death rate of 0.1%, including people with pre-existing health issues.
As of today, 4/22, NY has 256,555 cases of COVID, and 19,693 deaths from COVID, including people with pre-existing health issues.
Death rate is calculated the same as flu, # of deaths from COVID divided by # of infected. That calculation is:
19,693 / 256,555 = .076759, which equals 7.68%, rounded up would be 7.7% death rate in NY.
By your numbers, even on 4/13, the calc would be 10,000 / 118,000 = 8.5% death rate in NY.
As you can see, your numbers are WAY OFF. Let me know if you'd like to do a RE deal sometime. We can use your math. Just kidding, bad joke.
you absolutely cannot use current trackers' stats to come up with a mortality rate. according to newer studies that are getting published, reported cases are way, way understated:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with your viewpoints, as I feel not reopening the country soon will have FAR WORSE consequences than the impact this disease is having... but your math is off.
---------------------------------------------------
Actually the death rate for Covid-19 will go down sharply. The number of infections is severely under reported. That will change the denominator of the formula used.
That said, Covid-19 has a far higher death rate than seasonal flu. Covid-19, contrary to Trump, is NOT "the flu."
I hear what you're saying Victor, but knowing the calculation is better than bad math, or made up percentages, and spreading factually wrong percentages. Let's at least give it some context. I would venture to guess that COVID is more contagious and has a higher death rate than influenza, but not by the insane margin that it appears.
And to clarify, I truly feel for everyone directly affected by COVID, the infected, deceased and their families, and the healthcare workers, etc. I also feel no one is considering that the entire country is indirectly affected by this. I've heard people talk about bankruptcy, job loss, credit tanking, selling their car, and even suicide, not to mention growing depression. I see people I care about slowly going insane and becoming severely depressed, no matter what I say to them.
No one wants to put more people at risk or overwhelm the healthcare system, but somehow everyone is ignoring the fact that the entire economy has collapsed, needs immediate fixing, or we will be left with looting, robbery, more crime than ever seen before, suicides, and a whole lot of mental health issues.
So though it is horribly tragic that 0.1% of the US population has died from COVID (using their numbers which I know may have accuracy issues), I personally believe it's more tragic that 70% to 90% or more of the US population is affected by this in some way or another leading them to depression, anxiety, and possibly suicide.
@Bryan Beal I wholeheartedly agree with you!
@Bryan Beal it is against the law to put others endanger for ones selfish desires. Everyone knows this virus is contagious. People who do not want to obey the stay-at-home order are potentially putting innocent people lives at risk. The charge should be Reckless Endangerment.
@Account Closed can help me explain it so you understand). This is a very fluid situation but as I've said over and over again, the longer this drags out, the more likely it is that the cure becomes more problematic than the virus itself.
And hey, I'll gladly let you overpay for one of my rentals ;).
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
I hear what you're saying Victor, but knowing the calculation is better than bad math, or made up percentages, and spreading factually wrong percentages. Let's at least give it some context. I would venture to guess that COVID is more contagious and has a higher death rate than influenza, but not by the insane margin that it appears.
And to clarify, I truly feel for everyone directly affected by COVID, the infected, deceased and their families, and the healthcare workers, etc. I also feel no one is considering that the entire country is indirectly affected by this. I've heard people talk about bankruptcy, job loss, credit tanking, selling their car, and even suicide, not to mention growing depression. I see people I care about slowly going insane and becoming severely depressed, no matter what I say to them.
No one wants to put more people at risk or overwhelm the healthcare system, but somehow everyone is ignoring the fact that the entire economy has collapsed, needs immediate fixing, or we will be left with looting, robbery, more crime than ever seen before, suicides, and a whole lot of mental health issues.
So though it is horribly tragic that 0.1% of the US population has died from COVID (using their numbers which I know may have accuracy issues), I personally believe it's more tragic that 70% to 90% or more of the US population is affected by this in some way or another leading them to depression, anxiety, and possibly suicide.
Here's where your logic fails: you compare the people suffering through quarantine to the amount of people who have died BECAUSE we stay at home. You are completely ignoring the MILLIONS who would have died without these measures. And you value mental health of the many over the lives of the few. Are YOU willing to die for someone else's (treatable) mental health? I'm guessing not. May you live long enough to have young people consider you expendable so you know how that feels.
Originally posted by @Brian Van Pelt:
You are a very confused man:
Legal rights are the things people can do or have unalienable access to as codified in the laws and statutes that govern the land.
Moral rights are the things that people can do or have unalienable access to as defined to the prevailing societal conventions of the time.
The Federal and States leaders are exercising their legal rights to limit certain social activities to try to contain a GLOBAL PANDEMIC.
Morally and Leagaly we (you,I and everyone else) owe it to our fellow citizens to follow the social guidelines put on us by our legally elected leaders.
You may want to refer to the 3 Documents which framed the Moral and Legal framework of the United States:
Magana Carta (Established the Moral Obligations of the Leader of the Colonies in America)
Declaration of the United States (The Consequences of and Reasons England lost it's Moral Right to govern th colonies)
Constitution (Which codifies the Moral Rights into a framework for Laws in the United States)
So No you nor I do NOT have the Moral or Legal right to "pick and choose" what is "right or wrong"
In your posts you keep asserting that your "right" to be stupid and possibly infecting other during a GLOBAL PANDEMIC is equivalent to someone following the legal social restrictions meant to keep everyone including you as safe as possible.
In a Global Pandemic we are ALL in the same boat and the sooner that WE close the infection rate AND develop a Vaccination, the sooner we will be able to ALL get back to work.
The "right" to one's own morality is inherent.
Originally posted by @Nancy P.:
Here's where your logic fails: you compare the people suffering through quarantine to the amount of people who have died BECAUSE we stay at home. You are completely ignoring the MILLIONS who would have died without these measures. And you value mental health of the many over the lives of the few. Are YOU willing to die for someone else's (treatable) mental health? I'm guessing not. May you live long enough to have young people consider you expendable so you know how that feels.
Actually I'm not ignoring that, but that's a different topic. Since you mentioned it, you're right, COVID deaths could be far worse if we all resumed normal life. As many as 660,000 people could die in the US based on my projections. That's 0.2% of the population. It would be absolutely horrible. 10x more than normal flu deaths, 5x more than annual car crashes. It would be devastating.
But Nancy, I think you misunderstood me, I don't simply value mental health over lives of the few. I have loved ones very close to me that are at risk and immuno-compromised. And by the way, I know I'm expendable. What I was trying to suggest is an evaluation of extremes, to clarify the results. It's easy to see people are dying now from the disease, and that many more would die from COVID if we didn't have a lockdown. What is harder for people (such as yourself) to see is that eventually, at some point, many more would die from other stuff (murder, suicide, etc) if we had a lockdown forever. Obviously we won't be locked down forever, which brings me to my point of discussion. No I don't know the answers, neither do you, no one does, and no one can see the future.
So let's say we continue this lockdown for 12 months, or 12 years for that matter (I'm being extreme to make a point). At some point, this country and the world, would be in absolute chaos beyond your wildest nightmares. MANY more people would die than from COVID, we'd get murdered, commit suicide, etc. It would literally be the apocalypse. There simply isn't a way to sustain a lockdown beyond X amount of days/weeks/months/years. We just don't know what timeframe that 'X' is. At some point, after enough time in lockdown, this isn't 'my logic' or an opinion, it is a fact. We can debate that fact, but if we agree that we cannot be in lockdown forever, we must agree on why.
The reason I feel we cannot be in lockdown forever is it would result in far more deaths and disaster than COVID deaths. Imagine most of the country having no income, no food, and 20% of us all went mad. You can forget about treatable mental health when everyone is looting each other's homes after the stores have been emptied and people start killing each other. Have I seen too many movies? Definitely! But don't you think this would actually happen during 12 years of lockdown? I do.
If you don't agree, that's fine, we differ in opinion. If you do agree, then it's simply a question of how long would it take for the country to go completely to hell and become a nightmare apocalypse? I think it would happen in less than 1 year. You might say 3 years. Whatever the answer to THAT question is, then 3 months (or more) before that we need to reopen the country.
This isn't about who is expendable. This is about: how do we save the most lives possible? I don't know the answer, but I can tell you without a doubt the way to save the most lives possible is NOT to 'stay in lockdown forever'.
After 1 month, people around the country are already protesting in person at govt buildings. Can you imagine how people will act in just 3 months from now? That's the point I'm trying to make. I don't want to see anyone die, but if you don't think we need to reopen the country VERY SOON, then you are fortunate enough for you and everyone you know to have enough wealth to endure a prolonged shut down. Keep in mind 70% of the US lives paycheck to paycheck. 30% are unemployed right now (and rising). People will start robbing, people will start killing. It will be complete chaos.
You have to be able to look outside of your own situation and predict what the rest of the world will do. I've lived in horrible neighborhoods for half of my life. People will shoot someone else for $50 or less. I can tell you, absolute chaos is right around the corner.
Originally posted by @Alton White:
@Bryan Beal it is against the law to put others endanger for ones selfish desires. Everyone knows this virus is contagious. People who do not want to obey the stay-at-home order are potentially putting innocent people lives at risk. The charge should be Reckless Endangerment.
LOL
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Even worse, if the government insists on keeping people at home and just keeps printing money in the interim, the dollar will devalue to the level of toilet paper and we will end up like Venezuela with 200,000% inflation. America will be lower than junk bond status. Imagine if your bank collapsed and every dollar you had was now worthless.
@Steven Lowe Look at the exchange rate of every currency in the world since the pandemic, everyone's in worst shape than we are. USD has been going up (right or wrong), but what you said is not happening. If anything, I can go buy a house in Sydney cheaper now than it was two months ago.
Originally posted by @Tom Makinen:
@Steven Lowe Look at the exchange rate of every currency in the world since the pandemic, everyone's in worst shape than we are. USD has been going up (right or wrong), but what you said is not happening. If anything, I can go buy a house in Sydney cheaper now than it was two months ago.
I said if people don't go back to work and the government keeps printing money this is what will happen. I did not say it IS happening now today.
The US dollar has been being devalued since the Nixon administration.
this discussion has really reached the limits of a political diatribe. I'm sure there will be some that relate this investments and financing, buts its really only in the most indirect way like saying the teller at the bank determines whether I like the bank for my mortgages. It's too bad these forums start to look like someone's Facebook home page. I kind of counted on BP for like-minded people to talk real estate and investments.
How long should the economy should stay this way? Currently, I'm a beneficiary of lockdown as I can comfortably work from home, my tenants are still paying, my company still is paying me salary as usual. But seriously, how long can this last? How much money the gov can collect and print? Could long lockdown cause another Great Depression which eventually needs a WW3 to get out?
compare to what? Name something that you would rather hold. Everyone is printing money (right or wrong), but everyone wants our printing press. You can buy more RMB if you are so concern.
Originally posted by @Steven Lowe:
Originally posted by @Tom Makinen:
@Steven Lowe Look at the exchange rate of every currency in the world since the pandemic, everyone's in worst shape than we are. USD has been going up (right or wrong), but what you said is not happening. If anything, I can go buy a house in Sydney cheaper now than it was two months ago.
I said if people don't go back to work and the government keeps printing money this is what will happen. I did not say it IS happening now today.
The US dollar has been being devalued since the Nixon administration.
You do know most of the business that reopens too early will not have the same amount of business right. They might even lose more money. Do you not think about that? You think everyone is going back to wait in line at your local diner? How many people will buy cars? Who is going to the mall? How many people will hire contractors to do their house additions. Until we have test kits widely available or a vaccine, we are in for a long ride.
read about all the food processors that tried to stay open, they all eventually had to close.
Originally posted by @Calvin Guan:
How long should the economy should stay this way? Currently, I'm a beneficiary of lockdown as I can comfortably work from home, my tenants are still paying, my company still is paying me salary as usual. But seriously, how long can this last? How much money the gov can collect and print? Could long lockdown cause another Great Depression which eventually needs a WW3 to get out?
Regarding the need to stay in quarantine to continue to protect our health care systems, my daughters are nurses in covid19 units in Michigan and Texas. Their quote - “we are killing the very systems we are staying home to protect”. They both have received large pay cuts in the last few days. Their employer retirement contributions are cancelled. Their coworkers are being furloughed indefinitely. In Detroit Michigan, the epicenter of the virus in Michigan, hospitals are closed. Private medical practices are closed. Treatment is being denied to cardiac patients having chest pain, cancer patients having complications and wound patients with infections. Protecting our healthcare systems might just be destroying them.
Originally posted by @Denise S.:
Regarding the need to stay in quarantine to continue to protect our health care systems, my daughters are nurses in covid19 units in Michigan and Texas. Their quote - “we are killing the very systems we are staying home to protect”. They both have received large pay cuts in the last few days. Their employer retirement contributions are cancelled. Their coworkers are being furloughed indefinitely. In Detroit Michigan, the epicenter of the virus in Michigan, hospitals are closed. Private medical practices are closed. Treatment is being denied to cardiac patients having chest pain, cancer patients having complications and wound patients with infections. Protecting our healthcare systems might just be destroying them.
My business partners are in East Lansing and they pretty much said the same thing regarding their Detroit properties, most of which are medical office.
Originally posted by @Calvin Guan:
How long should the economy should stay this way? Currently, I'm a beneficiary of lockdown as I can comfortably work from home, my tenants are still paying, my company still is paying me salary as usual. But seriously, how long can this last? How much money the gov can collect and print? Could long lockdown cause another Great Depression which eventually needs a WW3 to get out?
This is one of the issues with a fiat currency standard, but a gold standard would be worse.
@Bryan Beal
Please don’t go “the cure is worse than the disease.” 46,000 people have died in ONE MONTH. 13 times September 11. We need to follow the scientists. They know. This is not about freedom or being an adult. It’s about acting in concert for the good all of us. Ask, guarantee you if you were feverish right now not knowing if you’ll survive, you wouldn’t be thinking this way.
@Gary L Wallma
Remember this fact. Deaths of this virus are like .0002%. I’d hate to see if it was 30%, you probably never open the economy again. It’s nearly impossible to die from this virus.
@John Clark
Yes the constitution does allow people to die in the streets. Have you ever seen the himelesss death rate. It’s mostly males.
@Danielle N.
What’s funny is I was out tonight in Minnesota had a biking park and nobody was social distancing. We have a very low rate of death in the state. So apparently somewhere along the lines the math is incorrect.