To quickly evaluate a a deal where there is no asking price, I usually look at capex required, adjust the property taxes (based on comparable sales) and perhaps play around with the vacancy and reserves.Is there anything I am missing?

If something gains say 40% in 3 yrs but your play is long term buy and hold then that 40% doesn't do you much good.

If you're selling that $500k rental but identify 15 replacements worth a total of $3 mil, you gotta find that extra $2.35 mil somewhere to keep the 1031 valid.Most people stick to the 3-prop rule, some use the 200% rule, but you have to be verrry careful with that 95% exception because, unless you have tons of value to play with or have a bunch of extra cash you're willing to throw into the deal, you could be on the hook for a very big sum.

There might be  a play for scraping the building and doing something new if location is good.

The old adage "Buy Low, Sell High" is in play here. 

To keep the conversations flowing smoothly and fresh in my mind, I practice my dialogue with sellers when I’m in the car alone, at my house, have my girlfriend role play as one etc.

To play Devil's Advocate, I heard similar headlines about Phoenix in '05 and '06. 

This would be a buy-and-hold play for us. 

Can’t play the game without understanding the rules.

I know the margin might not be great, but we're willing to play the long game on this part of town.