@Jonathan Paz, you're in the ball park. 

. $1.2M or around $25k per lot seems in the ball park.

I low balled an offer, they countered back and we accepted.

But looking at ball park numbers, if I'm reading it right, the flipper could best case scenario be getting 45k before realtor fees/closing costs/holding cost ect. 

If yours don't look something like this, then youre already behind the 8-ball

You're starting from scratch with this one and I can't believe you waited 3 years to get this ball rolling!

If you think you are scared to act now...why do you think youd have the balls to act in a down market?

There is also the chance that you just blow an awesome deal because you low ball too much based on what you have learned on BP without real world experience in your market.Buy your first rental properties in a way that makes financially sense - for high cash flow.

I know I don't have to hit it out of the ball park for my first deal, but I don't want to be barely making a return while having to do all the work.

If anyone claims they can look into their crystal ball and predict future values, ask them why you are having this conversation because they should be on their yacht in the French Riviera.