Great read Scott!
Regarding rates, 6-9 months ago I was in the camp that inflation would cool and we would enter a recessionary environment and rates would settle down. But the labor market and consumer spending keep trucking along forcing the higher for longer theme. There is a pretty decent chance that the yield curve uninverts by long term bonds moving higher, which means rates go even higher. But, there is a 300bp spread between the 10yr T and 30 yr fixed mortgage rates, when 175 bps is historically the spread range (roughly). Does that spread return to normal as 10yr T rates go higher and we are in the same mortgage rate situation? Too tough to tell.
I think it is possible the strong consumer spending and labor markets force the Fed to raise further and rates jump across the board. I think there will be a breaking point when high prices, high rates - take the steam out of the consumer and job market and things come crashing down, which will cause the Fed to shift policy.
For a soft landing it seems like we need to quickly see wages/job growth/consumer spending to get reigned in fast.