Also, to everyone saying that you cannot predict market then why are you in real estate investing? Should I simply pick 100 random properties and pick one from a hat? Probably not. Because you guys say its all about finding the best deals, the notion that you cannot predict the market doesn't make sense to me. How does one find deals while also disregarding future growth or decline of the market?
My proposition is, if one was able to bet against the spread so to speak by choosing the correct properties in the correct geography, you would able to beat the average RE market performance. In finance, your not cash flow positive until you beat the risk free investment (that being the federal funds rate or similar rate I think). As mentioned before, people are getting excited about %5 cap rates when there are almost riskless investments elsewhere in govt bonds and what not. Is there a similar metric in RE that one would try to analyze and choose their markets to surpass? Is that what Cap Rates are for? I don't mean to attack anyone's views and this is purely academic, but why wouldn't someone like myself invest in a Real Estate Investment Trust that already has an extremely diversified portfolio instead of looking into the market and trying to 'beat' the market by choosing the best investment properties? Am I talking in circles like a crazy person yet?
Thanks again for all the help and support people!
Tom