All Forum Posts by: Toby Munk

Ok, reached my target yesterday. Man what a ride, much faster than I thought.

In any case 1.5978 is the current all time high. I think the air is getting very very thin up here and we should see some correction soon.

All foreigners, get the check book out and buy something in the US. Just make sure to buy in the right areas ;-)

This should cause an effect that was probably not intended by the mortgage providers. A RUN FOR THE BANK.

Anybody that has a line of credit that is not used and still available would do good in drawing on the line and depositing in a savings account. Costs money but keeps it available when you need it.

I guess cost of capital has just gone up if you want to make sure you can get to it when you need it.

Let the market decide....? BS
That would get us back to Standard Oil. Do you really think monopolies are good? They are true capitalistic though.

Regulation is needed. Can you imagine the financial system where insider trading is welcome?

Just because we want free markets does not mean the market is free to do what it wants.

In the case of banks it is peoples savings at risk. The government insures those up to $100k. In return I think they have a right to regulate.

I would not put a dime in a bank that is not regulated.

Now, the new FED powers will not help this time around. The mess is here. But it might shield against the next lending excess.

PS: Ronnie McDonald was the finest role model for the lend and spend mentality that has gripped the american nation. In all honesty he was probably the worst that could have happened to the US fiscal responsibility only trumped by the blatant disregard for prudent spending now shown by the Bush administration.

It costs about $3-$4 to get the oil out of the ground in Saudi.
Figure another $6 to get it to the US. It is worse quality than WTI but you can see the profit margin.

They produce about 10 million barrels a day. At $90 profit that is almost a billion Dollars a day.

Now they just need to find a way to spend it. I guess they just found one.

I would go to work with my own parachute. Sounds like BASE jump heaven.

Got a letter from Countrywide about 4 weeks ago. Same thing. HELOC frozen.

I called and they stated that in the fine print they could do that if the home values fall.

Well my home is worth about 2x what I owe on it and prices here in Aspen have not budged at all.

So I think they sent the letter out to everybody as they are running out of cash.

They stated that I could send them a BPO to get the freeze lifted. Since I am maxed on the HELOC no need to do that right now ;-)

But since I am an agent I should do the BPO and show them the facts.

Oil is not going to trade back down to $80 any time soon. And if it will only be for very very short periods.

Marginal production costs are in the mid to high $70's. So that is a natural floor. The rest is uncertainty premium, speculation and growing demand.

The higher oil prices go the better. That is the only thing that is going to get us off the drug. And since tripling did not do the trick we have not gone high enough.

Wait until you see European gas prices, they are paying $8/gallon right NOW! Not fiction, it is happening right now.

The US is least prepared to deal with high oil prices, so we are in for a bad run.

Ever heard the expression "Dead cat bounce"?

We have a lot more to work through. Give it another 12 months before I will even listen to "sales are picking up"

We have not seen anything yet in terms of gas prices. The US in in deep sh$#*, out of control spending, falling Dollar not helping much as there is no manufacturing base and other nations do not want to buy anything in the US.

The fact that we have lived over our means for so long is catching up with us. Zero or negative savings rate. I would not count on a rapid resurrection of the real estate market in many areas.

If the numbers work one can make a decent return in REI, but don't bank on appreciation to make an investment work.

Real Estate is very local. Past performance is no predictor of the future !

I would always look at geographically confined areas to invest in. Those areas have the best chance of having limited supply with decent demand.

Look at Houston. That place is spread out so much and if prices get too high they just build further out. Appreciation will be hard to get to in that kind of place.

Then on the other extreme take Aspen (just an example) No more space to build, high demand, long term appreciation potential.

Find your Aspen out there.

As real estate agent you are at the source of the market. You should be able to know the best deals, even though the are often outside of official listings.
Brush up your financial knowledge. Understand the financials behind REI.

Once you got that down do your first deal.