All Forum Posts by: Terry Lao

Realtor.com top 50 city list came out for 2021. My niche is Las Vegas, so for 2020 realtor.com predicted that Las Vegas will have negative -1.1% appreciation. To date, Nov'20 SFR median was 12.4% increase, year over year. So safe to say Dec'20, will be about 10.9%. Thus far from negative -1.1%. Overall, all 50 cities mentioned on list will be positive appreciation, from low 3.4 to 10.8%.

I don't think nationally there will be crash, correction, or anything close. As long as low interest rate and low inventory dominates the real estate markets.

What do you think about top 50 list?

https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

It's realtor.com time again for 2021 forecast. Let's review realtor.com prediction for Las Veags in 2020, which was negative -1.1% appreciation. The actual as of Nov'20, was 12.4% appreciation. So appears that Dec'20 will be around 10.9% appreciation, year over year. Missed it by that much.

 The top cities list came out for 2021. Las Vegas at #15, at 5.2% appreciation. In fact, the whole top 50 list had positive appreciation. Even the lowest at #50, Baltimore list 6.2% appreciation. Coronavirus had unintended consequences, as contributed to the low interest rates and low inventory, as potential seller stayed on the sidelines.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

Update, from initial post, May'20 SFR median at $315k, now Nov'20 SFR median at $345k. Price went up $30k, or 9.5%. The original question was " is it a good time to sell ?".

The correct answer is NO. The circumstances in May'20 was coronavirus, strip was closed, layoffs and unemployment, and stock market dumped. With bright side interest rates low and inventory low.

The logical answer was YES. With coronavirus and no vaccine, take the gain if bought between 2010 and 2016.

So now mid Dec'20, is it a good time to sell?

@Joe Edwards

Let's say that institutional investors have deal with banks at retail prices for any foreclosures to come due to forbearance or financial hardship. This information is more unknown to most. 

Low inventory, and low interest rates contributed to the increased demand which drove up housing prices. 

How about the sellers who took their property off market during coronavirus? Vaccine starting in mid December and should be ramped up in Jan/Feb'21. This would surely bring out sellers who took property off market beginning of coronavirus and new sellers in coming Spring?

@Joe Edwards

I think that 95% of people do not know this little bit of information. Also, this sounds like a plan copied from what Blackrock did after the 2008 recession, which came in and scooped up as many properties at bargain basement prices. Then put into a real estate portfolio, created a investment fund, went public IPO, and sold their shares at phenomenal gains. 

For those investors on sidelines with cash and waiting for the tidal wave of foreclosures, will not materialize. 

I hope those investors will read this post, and have a backup plan.

@Joe Edwards

It’s the second time I heard about institutional Investors on sidelines waiting to scoop up any foreclosures at banks asking price therefore eliminating any discount deals for the average investor. Also, these institutional investors already made contact with banks and have agreements in place for these coming foreclosures.

This just in, Las Vegas SFR reach another record for median home price, at 345k for Nov'20. The news cycle will probably publish this in tomorrows news.

@Tom Chang

@Bill B.

Based upon your request for SFH you would have to ask Bill Brandt, I'm more into multi's. If you are still interested in mult's, then the below map will fit your criteria.

@Bill B.

@Tom Chang

Hello Bill, always nice seeing you on BP. Welcome Tom. I just did a search for multi's on Redfin, which return results of 76. Of which, specifically 4plexs there are 34. A search of SFR returned 4140 available on MLS. This means for every 1 4plex, there are more than 122 SFR. They just don't build new fourplex anymore.

If you are looking for cashflow, and something that meets the 1% rule ( sales price times 1% equals total monthly rents), you could count them on one hand. The listing price of 4plexs ranges from $300k to $720k. Most are on the east side, which is the rougher side of town.

What is your goal with regards to 4plexs or multi's ?

@Bill B.

@Garrett Smith

Here is the secret that 99% of investors do not know about 4plexs in Las Vegas. I just did a search of 4plexs (not duplex, not triplex) that are available on MLS without offers, the result was 31. A same search of SFR available on MLS without offers, the result was 4689. The % ratio (31/4689 equals .007). Another way of looking at this, for every (7) 4plexs, there are 4,000 SFR's. Or for every (1) 4plex for every 600 SFR's. Think of Econ 101, supply, and demand, then tell me which is better?

Below map is areas that are good for 4plexs. There's only a handful, about 5-6.