All Forum Posts by: Terry Lao

@David Song

In real estate, the most common question " is it a good time to buy or sell " and the most common answer is " it depends ". It depends on your goal........buy, sell, or hold. My strategy is buy, hold, and sell. I'm selling a 4plex in Las Vegas that I bought in Apr'16, and will net around $220k. It's hard to argue taking profit when cash down payment is $42k, which is over 500% profit on cash on cash return. 

No one ever lost money when taking profit. I just felt that below real estate cycle was impacted by coronavirus, or I would have held.

@David Song

I agree with your statement people who bought (2010-2012) are big winners. Depending on market, maybe even extending to 2013-2014, are still winners but just not as much. Losers definitely 2016-2017. This is timing the market. However, if you bought at market high's, then it is still possible to make it out on top if can hold onto the property until recovery. It's harder but possible.

Many have said you cannot time the market, but does not prevent those from trying. 

@Bill B.

nice hearing from your bill. i read that you are moving soon to minnesota, as your wife took early retirement.  does this mean you are selling your current residence for tax free gain? or make a rental?

End of July is a crucial time, as people getting CARES act money will end. As months get closer, the picture will get clearer as to which direction the economy and home prices will go. 

Below is link to youtube, which discuss the many casinos that sent 60 day letters to employees. This is a required step before layoffs can become permanent. 

Second link is the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. June's numbers were off 90-95% from prior year, same month. 

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/888/topics/854548-eviction-surge-nevada-las-vegas-clark-county?page=1&utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Transactional:%20topic_notification&utm_content=Transactional#p5018747



https://www.lvcva.com/research/visitor-statistics/

Both evictions and unemployment articles are not good news. Evictions are par for the course, and if tenants cannot pay, then end result is eviction. The unemployment is running out, but there is the ability for state to borrow from the federal government. This is not a handout, and loan does need to be repaid. This can be repaid by raising the unemployment rate for payroll taxes. 

One of of two does have a solution.

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) has published their May YTD data and statistics. Visitor's volume down 96%, occupancy down 88%, gaming revenue down 99%, and convention attendance down 100%. The numbers are bad and expected when your close down the strip. June 4th was the go ahead date for reopen. June and July's numbers will show a starting point of recovery.

Despite all the efforts to diversify, Las Vegas still lives and dies by tourism.

https://www.lvcva.com/research/visitor-statistics/

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) has published their May YTD data and statistics. Visitor's volume down 96%, occupancy down 88%, gaming revenue down 99%, and convention attendance down 100%. The numbers are bad and expected when your close down the strip. June 4th was the go ahead date for reopen. June and July's numbers will show a starting point of recovery. 

Despite all the efforts to diversify, Las Vegas still lives and dies by tourism. 

https://www.lvcva.com/research/visitor-statistics/

@Eric Fernwood

Nice of you to comment on my topic. I'm sure you've noticed the real estate cycle, as that I got from one of your article and found it interesting. Every cycle will follow this form in some way, and it's only a matter of where you plot the dates on this cycle. 

I only bring up this topic/opinion " Is it a good time to sell in Las Vegas", because the median SFR Jun'20 is $325k, and past it's previous high of 315k in Jun'09. You are correct that dollars in 2009 is different than today, adjusted for inflation. I did not want to adjust for inflation for simplicity. Also, other cities/counties, like bay area, OC/LA, has past their recession highs many years ago. So why would Las Vegas only pass all-time highs only a few months ago. Again, to keep things simple.

You make good points with foreclosures, as there are not that many. I think it is because of forbearance, as mortgage holders holding off paying, and not actual numbers are not in current foreclosures. Also, evictions are delayed due to Gov. Sisolak prohibited evictions until July 1st, and Sept.1, depending on type of property. 

Income security and economic outlook is okay for now, with stimulus payments of $600 Fed until end of July. Extended stimulus payments may or may not happen. I can make case for high unemployment, Las Vegas casinos and tourism based industry, or conventions canceled until 2021. 

It is not the known issues that I am afraid of. It might be okay and back to normal as soon as coronavirus vaccine is developed. Your many articles are documented in various posts. Heck, your the one who I referenced with the below real estate cycle. The unknown issues are not ones that you or everyone talks about. The unknown issues are subtle and lurk at the corner of your eyes, but never come in full sight. 

Here is an example, the recent fraud discovered in China regarding fake gold. A Chinese company, Kingold, listed on NASDAQ, used 83 tons of fake gold to obtain loans of $4.2B. This is the first fraud case discovered, and I cannot help to think that it's only the tip of the iceberg. The loans obtained by this company went onto invest in real estate called " ghost cities". The pace that large commercial and residential buildings are being built lack the quality in materials and workmanship. Add the populations mentality " mei ban fa ", then it's a disaster waiting to happen.

@Bill B.

Another newspaper article that confirms Las Vegas low inventory at around 2%. The second article is more interesting.

https://vegasinc.lasvegassun.com/business/real-estate/2020/jul/07/las-vegas-area-home-prices-unfazed-by-pandemic/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-home-prices-seen-falling-120000880.html

@Raul Pastrana

The most common answer for any question on BP is...........it depends on your goal. My goal is buy, hold, and sell. I'm making future actions based on historical results, particularly on last recession 2006 to present. See initial post and real estate cycle chart. 

Yes, it is timing the market, but based upon facts, forecasts, economic numbers, jobs, unemployment, SFR median price, coronavirus, etc.

@Justin Thorpe

@Bill B.

The number of people moving to Las Vegas per month is 1,000 to 1,200. I'm planning to move to Las Vegas in about 10-11 years. The no state tax alone is worth it, saving 10-12%. I'm from southern california, which is the majority from which coming into Las Vegas. I think you have all income types, low, medium, and high. I think the mentality of those who rent or buy, will be to buy higher than what accustomed living style in southern california. I don't see lower and equal, due to the buying power compared LA/OC to LV.

I'm just planning to stay 6 months out of year, as a full year of buffets, and I would not fit through the front door.