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All Forum Posts by: Tanner Crawley

Tanner Crawley has started 4 posts and replied 131 times.

Post: 300 Units & 1 Short Term Rental on my first year of taking action

Tanner CrawleyPosted
  • Realtor
  • Lone Tree, CO
  • Posts 139
  • Votes 111
Originally posted by @Eric Brown:

@Tanner Crawley

This is confusing to me also. I invested $25k into a 312 unit apartment complex as a limited partner last year, and I would never claim that I own 312 units. My participation in the deal consisted of me transferring $25k to the GP which made up a very small percentage of the total funds used to purchase a $49M apartment complex. Maybe Op is referring to something different though.

You nailed it Eric. Op likely did something very similar. In my opinion, this is a misrepresentation. I think the BP community is hungry for simple metrics such as unit count even though it is probably the worst metric you could probably use. I have also seen total asset value used which is also a pretty horrible metric as it ignores leverage.

Why unit count is flawed:

A luxury rental in an A-class market is likely worth 10+ entry-level units in a D-market.
It ignores partnerships and syndication. If you have 10% ownership in 300 units you don't own 300 units. 
It ignores debt.

Why total asset value is flawed:
This ignores the debt load. If you have bought several properties with low down payments that are very different than someone who has highly appreciated properties or has paid down much of the mortgage. 

Many high-leverage investors utilize these metrics because it makes their portfolios look much better. I myself am a huge fan of leverage, but can we as the BP community please start being more transparent about our portfolios and use better metrics? After all, the goal is not unit count or total asset value. The goal is net worth and there is many ways to get there. 

Using bad metrics can make the wrong impression, in the case of this thread it may convince newer investors that LP participation is the best way to be successful. In reality, there are many routes an investor can take, and we should include more metrics when discussing our strategies and portfolios, for example:

My real estate portfolio:
2 Units
Total Asset Value: $1,050,000
Total Debt: $881,000
Total Equity: $165,000
Initial Invested Equity: $10,950
Annual Cash Flow: $7,200
Time Invested: 2 Years

By including more metrics and better metrics you can get the whole picture. It is clear my strategy is to put very little down (through owner occupancy and down payment assistance programs). I also target higher-value properties in A-class areas. These properties have strong appreciation but low-moderate cash flow. They are also pretty low risk as they are rented to reliable and high-earning tenants. 

Even though my unit count is very low it has added $165,000 to my net worth in just 2 years and with just a 4-figure investment. 

With the limited information that Alex included someone might assume his strategy is much better, but there is simply not enough information and the information that is included is likely misleading.

I don't mean for this to be an entirely negative post. Much of the original post is valuable. Alex is right to post his story as I think his intent was to be motivational and show that his determination paid off.

Still, we need to be intentional about how we talk about RE invested and what metrics we choose to include.













Post: 300 Units & 1 Short Term Rental on my first year of taking action

Tanner CrawleyPosted
  • Realtor
  • Lone Tree, CO
  • Posts 139
  • Votes 111

I don't understand why people keep boasting about total door count when they aren't sole owners. It is useless context in my opinion. What is your LP share? What is your current equity worth?

I have seen several posts this week in this style and it could easily confuse new investors and misrepresent LP and GP syndications as an easier or a quicker path to wealth. Giving up control and paying fees as an LP is probably not a good route for many investors.




Originally posted by @Bruce Woodruff:

So if we are back to a stick-build, the average ADU I spec'ed was 800SF.

800 x $250 sf = $200,000

Assuming a rent of $1800 mo, that's a 9+ yr ROI (not even counting any other typical costs)

If that works for your financial plan, you should absolutely go for it.

Even though it means doubling or tripling the density in these areas, with no new parking accommodations...

Yep, sound good.......

I find it crazy that people still believe a city should be designed around cars. No wonder American cities remain far less livable than our European counterparts...

Regarding the economics, a 9 year ROI is tremendous in a market with a 3% cap rate. Current cap rates reflect a 30+ year return. If you can build at triple that it is obviously a no-brainer.

Post: Zomes | Unique structure for ADU structures

Tanner CrawleyPosted
  • Realtor
  • Lone Tree, CO
  • Posts 139
  • Votes 111

@William B.

Interesting stuff. How much more does the pre-plumbed option cost? And the fully furnished option?

Post: investing in expensive markets

Tanner CrawleyPosted
  • Realtor
  • Lone Tree, CO
  • Posts 139
  • Votes 111

@Jonathan Beemer

Well not to advocate for my own market but Colorado and its cities are generally pretty landlord friendly.

Post: Purchasing single family house in the Denver area

Tanner CrawleyPosted
  • Realtor
  • Lone Tree, CO
  • Posts 139
  • Votes 111
Originally posted by @Axel Meierhoefer:

@Jay Gil Thanks for pointing it out. Yes, right now I like Ohio and Alabama, but that's because for me the important first selection is the turnkey partner I want to work with. A passive investment is only passive and works well when the organization you work with is great.

Then comes the properties and how well they perform - basically how much I can get my money to work for me.

There are also aspects like economic development, crime rates, school system scores, etc. but I have learned that you can find good areas and bad areas along those criteria in every state and region. As much as it might feel that having people from California migrating to certain areas is a benefit, they are also driving up valuations because almost every place they go to appears cheap. I know that some of my friends in Boise love the appreciation but can't afford to live with their families there anymore because prices have gone crazy - by their measure - not by CA price measures.

I hope you can agree that you don't want to invest in an area that is dependent on that migration. If you can find locations with a growing economy, stable growth without a lot of high jumps up or down and all the other important criteria met - it all, in the end, comes back to: "Where can my money work best for me to accomplish my goals"?

For me, that is where quality and cash flow have a healthy relationship and I am not sure if Denver and/or Colorado is by now really that great a place for that approach.

In the end, you need to be comfortable with your decision. I assume you put the question in the forum to get multi-faceted feedback. You decide what you want - we can all just give you additional things to consider.

Jay, if your goal is to have high cash flow in a C market you would be much better off buying in a tertiary city in Colorado that is still accessible to you such as Pueblo instead of out of state with a turnkey operation. Being able to self-manage makes a big difference and lowers risk substantially. 

My problem with C markets is that maintenance and management end up being a pretty large chunk of revenues. For example, if you need a $15,000 repair in Denver, that might be 7 months of rent. In a C market that might be 15 months of rent. The same goes for management. If a manager needs to charge $200 a month that might be 10% of your rent in Denver but 20% of your rent in a C market. A common mistake people make is using the same ratios to estimate costs across markets. If I buy a $500,000 home in Denver there is no way I am using the 1% rule to estimate expenses, it would be far too high. Similarly, if I buy an $80,000 turnkey rental home I should probably budget higher than 1%.

If I were you I would buy local, use favorable leverage, find something that cash flows, something that will attract quality tenants, and let the market work.





Post: Purchasing single family house in the Denver area

Tanner CrawleyPosted
  • Realtor
  • Lone Tree, CO
  • Posts 139
  • Votes 111
Originally posted by @Nicholas L.:

@Jay Gil have you run the numbers on example deals in any of these Colorado locations?  You might be able to cover your costs - i.e. break even every month, but if you put 25% down, that's $150K+ of your cash just sitting, while you break even and hope for continued appreciation.

I think being somewhat closer to your investment like you've said is a perfectly legitimate criterion - you have to pick a market somehow.  But what about Texas or Kansas?

And to ask again - what are you looking to accomplish?  And how will you be financing the initial purchase? 

 You can find cash flow in Denver without putting 25% down. I have two properties that I put 3% down and they both cash flow nicely.

Post: Seeking Resources in Colorado

Tanner CrawleyPosted
  • Realtor
  • Lone Tree, CO
  • Posts 139
  • Votes 111

@Nick Mavrick

I admittedly don't have much knowledge of the foreclosure market but I would imagine it is ultra-competitive at the moment. Foreclosure rates are very low. It probably couldn't hurt to learn about it in the meantime to be prepared for a different market when things have changed but for now I wouldn't expect to find many deals in foreclosures. 

There is also plenty of risk with outstanding liens, damages, property conditions etc. I'm sure there are good ways to mitigate all of these but this is just my 2c.

Post: Never invest in a cashflow negative property?

Tanner CrawleyPosted
  • Realtor
  • Lone Tree, CO
  • Posts 139
  • Votes 111
Originally posted by @Curtis Mears:

@David Campbell

You got lucky, which is good. But what if the market was 2008 and noone was buying, you cashflowed negative, and the house depreciated?

It is a crazy market now. Houses have appreciated 50% in 1 year. This is abnormal.

2008 was also abnormal. Everyone likes to throw around the black swan event an example. Zoom out and look at the entire history of the housing market. There is nothing lucky about betting on appreciation, especially when we are chronically underbuilt and the fundamentals are so solid:

  • Huge undersupply
    Rock-solid mortgage origination and all-time high credit score per $ originated
    Rising building costs

Post: Never invest in a cashflow negative property?

Tanner CrawleyPosted
  • Realtor
  • Lone Tree, CO
  • Posts 139
  • Votes 111

@David Campbell

I agree. Cash flow is actually riskier than appreciation. Appreciation is inevitable. Even if you bought in 2007, your property values would have recovered in 6 years in most markets. Everyone mentioning 2008 also has a gross misunderstanding of current market fundamentals. There is a reason smart money (institutions) are placing big bets on real estate.

Cash flow is unpredictable, you could get a bad tenant who damages your property, you have to evict, eviction moratorium, major repairs, etc.

Appreciation and cash flow have an inverse relationship. I could go invest in plenty of dying cities with negative population growth and get an amazingly high cap rate. But I also would likely have my property depreciating.

I am somewhere in the middle and prefer to be at least cash flow neutral, but if you are a high earner with strong DTI and capital reserves there is no reason to be scared of negative cash flow.