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All Forum Posts by: Steve Theobald

Steve Theobald has started 23 posts and replied 125 times.

Post: Don't delay, be "Offensive" today! MLS lowball offer discussion.

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

@Andrew Michael  Thanks for the nice words.   

When I started doing this 6 years ago my ratio was about 25 offers per acceptance and then my partner and I only closed on about 50% of them, so that made 50:1 offers per deal.  At about 25 offers per week, I did about 2 deals per month using this method.  Awesome!!

Since that time, the market bottomed and then has been climbing for the past 5 years.  Because my offers are for investors, and the market has been increasingly favorable to sellers, my ratios have gotten much worse, with the last 12 months being the hardest yet.  

I have increased the number of offers to 40 to 50 per week, but, unfortunately, the ratios are now about 70 offers per acceptance and only 1/3 of them go through to closing, so I am at about 200 offers per deal!  Now you see why I said I might be crazy?

So yes, this method still works, but it is very labor intensive. And the only reasons I haven't pulled out my hair and quit is because I don't have much hair left and because I sometimes get a flurry of acceptance activity like I mentioned in my blog, telling me that my method still has merit. As an agent, I have branched out to try to help buy and hold investors as well as flippers and I have tried to find more regular buyers and sellers too. But I can't see myself ever stopping my MLS rehab offer machine.

Obviously each market will be different, and the MLS needs to be just one weapon in your deal-gathering arsenal. But it has been a consistent one for me for 6 years now. And I believe that as the market levels off, there will be a lot more deals available from this source.

Post: He's NAKED! Beware of unscrupulous wholesalers.

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

I tried it again and it worked.  Try again, or try here:    

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/8070/51749-the-emperors-new-arv

Post: Don't delay, be "Offensive" today! MLS lowball offer discussion.

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/8070/53186-dont-delay-be-offensive-today

See my new blog post about low-ball offers, and how not even the SELLERS always know when they are about to accept an offer.   Don't be afraid to offend the agents.  This is your business and your job is to get deals where the numbers actually work.    

I recommend that all investors work hard to get off-market deals, but if you are on the MLS, then here is some food for thought.

Post: He's NAKED! Beware of unscrupulous wholesalers.

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

Just starting out? See my blog post about ARV's from wholesalers and others with that "magical" touch.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/8070/51749-the-emperors-new-arv

Post: Looking for CPA that invests

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

@Alex Little, @Joseph Davis should be able to help you.  He is local and is a CPA who invests.

Post: Which market is better for SFH investing Provo or salt lake city?

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

@Becca Summers  Nice review.  Magna is also a "c" area.  

I hear lots of different things about A, B, and C areas, but it is not intuitive.  What are your criteria?

Post: Which market is better for SFH investing Provo or salt lake city?

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

@Alex Jaime, I designed my own "SuperRentals" system. I look for SFR & multi-family rentals in Salt Lake and Provo counties as well as Tooele, Davis, and Weber counties. I look at all the new homes each day (as well as 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180 day-old active snapshot) and compare them with the average neighborhood rents by bedroom count using about 1600 data points I regularly gather from Rentometer (yes, it is a tedious task!). While their are always deals that pop up anywhere you look, your good question centers around averages: "On average, where should I look?" This presupposes that you are limited to just one county for the simplicity of working with property managers and contractors/handymen, but with this in mind, I am going to share my real data with you.

While the numbers don't lie, there are many other factors that should go into your decision like proximity to mountain recreation, as mentioned by @Stefan Coles.  Here are other things to consider:  (1) This is just a moment in time in an ever-changing market. (2) This is the raw data.  Some house prices are most certainly artificially low because of the agents trying to elicit multiple offers or the short sale agents.   (3) Deferred maintenance over whole neighborhoods can hide the true costs of ownership.  Downtown Ogden, in Weber County, for example, has great rent numbers but many homes will need $10k-15k to get them rent-ready.  (4) Higher rental areas may allow you to hold onto fewer properties to get the same benefit.  Would you rather have one higher priced property giving $300/mo cash flow, or two lower priced homes giving $150 each (factoring in all costs)?  Especially since the amount of work may be even more at the low end?  (5) There are needles in every haystack, and this is where your own competitive advantage must come into play. Market forces tend to equalize the opportunity, so the bottom line is to find something that already works and make it even better.  There are very happy landlords in all 5 counties, and the numbers below are simply different hues of winning deals.

Recognizing that entire markets shift between cheering and groaning, and my answer here may not be valid in 12 to 24 months, here is my data from the past 10 days comparing the average Gross Yield (est rents x 12 / asking price) for all 5 counties using only properties with a Gross Yield of 8% or more: 

(click to enlarge)

Summary:

Utah county seems to give the best return.  The homes are bigger and newer.  But there are fewer decent deals to choose from, and homes sit on the market the longest.  

Salt Lake county has the second best gross yield and it has 3x as many homes that seem to be good and the homes seem more affordable, but they are 11 years older on average.  

Weber County has the lowest average home price and PPSF, but the homes are 27 years older than Utah county, which explains the increase in deferred maintenance I was discussing.  The homes are also smaller which gives less rent.

Davis and Tooele both have some great rentals that come up, but on average they do not appear to be good hunting grounds - if you are forced to choose.

Where would I choose?  As mentioned above, there are great deals in all 5 counties if you look hard, but Salt Lake County may be the best hunting ground because of a reasonably high Gross Yield and 3x the number of possible deals.  But there are also more hunters in Salt Lake, as evidenced by the lower DOM.

The best advice I can give you is to do your own marketing and try to find your own non-MLS deals, but get on wholesalers' lists and work closely with with agents like me who specialize in working with investors. There are several on BP. Don't sign an exclusive agreement with anyone but create an army that is out there hunting deals for you.

Success to you in your search.

Post: Newbie in Bountiful, Utah, looking for 1-4 unit building to start

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

@Matthew Ormsby  There are a few UT agents who give great advice on BP and seem to work mainly with investors.   As long as the agent has been in business for a few years you should be in good hands with any of them.  

I personally scour 5 counties each day for the best multifamily deals.   Yes, the market is tight, but there are still some needles in the haystack.  And fortunately, I have an awesome metal detector!  I'd love to find some needles for you.

Post: Windows for flip

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

@Caleb Rigby  Three years ago I had a guy who charged me an average of about $250 per window for the labor and the window.  His price may have been too cheap, and he put himself out of work, because I can locate him anywhere now!  I would definitely talk to all the rehabbers you can find to get their best window guys.  $90 per window for labor sounds high, and Home Depot can easily be beat.

Post: Utah commercial property

Steve TheobaldPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Posts 131
  • Votes 143

Hi @Joseph Davis.  There are lots of agents who would love to do commercial, but don't have the experience.  It is a different beast from residential.  Just as a CPA or Financial Planner is hired for his expertise, a commercial real estate agent knows the nuts and bolts and all the nuances of commercial deals.   

I am great at finding residential flips and rentals, but I know my limitations as an agent.  I want my client to get the best advice and help for his particular situation.  Don't get sucked in by an agent who merely "dabbles" in commercial or hasn't done even one deal yet but talks a good talk.  If he or she claims they "needs a break" to get their foot in the door, then run.  There is too much at stake.  Find a true commercial agent.