All Forum Posts by: Eric Bilderback

Glad to see you I amuse you.  I'm not disagreeing with anything you said there is no alternative to the dollar at least that I am aware of, I am just pointing to the reason why there is no alternative.  So hehehe back at you dude. 

@Carlos Ptriawan

In my area real estate prices have come down very modestly. The low interest rates people have locked in will keep inventory low which will continue to put pressure on real estate prices.  I don't see prices coming down unless there are some major layoffs and or a big stock market crash.  My advice and practice as always since I'm not smart or lucky enough to time the market is buy good deals that cashflow, then manage and finance them to hold for the long-term. 

I used to believe that the dollar could not remain the worlds reserve currency (which would be great for investors who bought assets with fixed debt) with what the Fed and politicians have done to our fiscal and monetary systems.  I now believe as long as America is willing to send guys all over the world to fight the dollar will remain the world currency unless someone can take us out.  So money supply etc matter much less than economic models etc weight those economic factors.  

Full disclosure I have been wrong more then I have been right which brings me back to my original point. "Don't wait to buy real estate buy real estate and wait". LOL

I have always been suspicious of the market.  It seems that determining factor if real estate is a good investment has more to do with what the government does then what the underline economics are.  I have doubled down on the government pushing policies that will devalue money and I standby that today (although there has been a bump in that road the last year or so).  At some point though this scam will hurt investors and that concerns me.

Yeah it's hard to get too excited right now. Most of the deals I'm seeing need 40% down probably to work. There is up side but if CAP rates go up that could wipe out your value add.

Stupid Fed!

I would certainly error on the side of being frugal.  I try to make a game out of it.  My truck blew up last September (last day of elk hunting thank god!) and I am seeing how long I can go without buying another one.  Get more steps in for sure bought a good bike.  American consumption is so redonkulous I like to look at as punching the the Great American Rat Race in the face.

@James Hamling

How much of the 20.4% is based on appreciation?  Curious

If I look through my properties they have performed wonderfully.  But with higher interest rates, I believe we could also see a dip in values and flat rents I think we could see some pain from buying today.  No?

One of the parts I get stuck on is, how will high interest rates effect the national debt.  If interest rates go to 7% (or whatever) at that point this puts a huge amount of pressure on our government to cut spending as interest expense starts eating up our federal budget. Cutting spending would be deflationary.  But the trend has not been for our government to cut it has been to create bigger and bigger deficits which is inflationary.  

So my thought is if interest rates do create government crisis in the near future how will they react.  My guess would be politicians will take the easy route and that would inflationary and as the problem grows the inflation will become more extreme.  If anyone sees something I am missing let me know as far as our government having to take extraordinary action to deal with higher interest rates.  

As the wiseman said there are know certainties only probabilities so no one really knows.

What in todays market keeps you up at night? 

 I think I can get it built for 160 a ft if I run the construction myself and $200 a ft if I contract it out to a general.  

Taxes are good with all real estate I expect this would be no different.  Not better or worse just good.  

ADUs are great in my area. They are becoming more and more popular but if you have a 3-4 bed property on a small in town lot you will have over half your mortgage paid for by a tenant in the ADU.

After you have pulled permits you can list and put property on MLS but you have to complete the project yourself. No closing until final approval by county.

My new syndication fund!  lol