All Forum Posts by: Eric Bilderback

@Dan H. How many Ukrainians have been killed so their country can join NATO?, like that was ever going to happen. COVID did not come from a Chinese bat. Biden's kid is a crackhead, pervert and the media, big tech and government did pretend his laptop was Russian disinformation.

Just condescension, do better? I didn't wear mask or buy into the vax now I am immune to that. LOL.

2 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Jeremiah Dunakin:

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Jeremiah Dunakin:

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Jeremiah Dunakin:

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Jeremiah Dunakin:

Quote from @James Wise:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Here's my take, I believe you are missing some key points (or assuming incorrectly :-)

Put upward pressure on interest rates: Trump's demand that the Fed lower rates will have absolutely no effect.

I disagree. Presidents can, will and do put pressure on the Fed chair. They hire them and can fire them, it's not realistic to think there is no pressure on them. I say Trump puts his size 11s up Powells butt by this summer.

However, the implementation of tariffs, or just the threat of tariffs, is likely to influence rates, by impacting inflation numbers, and this influence may come quickly if prices for many common goods and services and raw materials rise

You are assuming that the typical view of Tariffs that we hear from the Dems and the Media are the way they actually work. If you listen to other economists, there are different views on this. And once the 'Reciprocal Tariffs' go into effeect, that's a whole new game. This whole Tariff thing should be short-lived anyway, I see little effect on the economy overall...

I personally believe it is unlikely that Trump actually deports millions of illegal immigrants who have settled in the United States. This, to me, seems impractical, and a PR nightmare.

I think Mr Trump will indeed deport 'a bunch', probably many millions by the time we are done, but certainly I would see the number in excess of a million, easy. He doesn't care about the PR either, the most recent poll saw 70% approval IIRC. The immigration was a huge reason he was elected.

Just my $.02.......

This is where so many people on the left miss the boat. The negative PR he's getting for the deportations is only from the left. As Bruce said, his stance on deportations is a major reason why he was elected. Whether you are pro or anti deportation is one thing, but it's wild to me how many on the left fail to read the room. America has spoken and the left's PR stance on open boarders and immigration is no longer something the majority of Americans agree with. What MSNBC says about the deportations does not matter to the majority of Americans as they are in favor of them.

Agreed, the American people voted for what’s going on. They voted and they voted overwhelmingly to do it. Like the man and his policies or not. The fact remains that his approval numbers are as high as they ever were. He is doing what he voted in to do. It’s amazing (I said this durning the last administration as well ) that people just don’t look at reality. They want to hate (sadly that’s where we are pure unbridled hatered) a party or group of people. Just look at facts. We see policy from both sides. Does it work? Yes or No. doesn’t matter who signs the bill. Does it work

Overwhelmingly to me would imply at least a majority. I do not know your definition of overwhelmingly, but they did not vote overwhelmingly for trump even using my fairly low threshold of having the majority of voters vote for him.

There is this false narrative that there is a clear mandate by the people. Reality is trump did not get the majority of the vote and the senate and house majorities are very thin.

The country and the populace are very divided and have been this way for a while. It is not good. I wish both parties had nominated more moderate candidates, but I could also wish to win the lottery and it has zero impact.

@sctot trench I disagree about your direction on prices as labor used for housing will increase. Material cost is likely to increase. This will slow new housing and make it more expensive. Supply in desirable areas is already less than demand. Any deportations will not overcome this imbalance. Land is finite in many of these desirable areas. So providing housing in these areas is full of challenges.

It’s going to be a bumpy ride ..

We can play the word game all day long. He won the popular vote and the electoral vote. He won a lot of the union vote as well as double on voters from non traditional bases. This is what I was talking about in another post. People don’t accept reality. It was a landslide he swept the blue wall picked up Georgia and North Carolina. To me that classifies as a majority. There was a clear mandate by the people of the united states(it doesn’t matter how I feel about it) everyone knew what he was running on. And yet he picked up roughly 2 million more votes than 2020 and Dems lost roughly 7 million. That’s a 9 million vote swing. To me that is people accepting his position. We can split hairs all we want and not like the outcome but he fact remains the house was held red the senate flipped red and the presidency is red. That signals that people want change(whether I agree or not) the fantasy world of not acknowledging people’s wants and desires not being in touch and having wordplay is exactly why the red wave happened.im not an eagles fan but its clear to me they dominated the Super Bowl (whether I like it or not)

>To me that classifies as a majority.

Now you are redefining majority. Seriously? Winning a majority of the vote means he got over 50% of the vote. He did not unless you change the definition of majority.

He won the popular vote by a smaller margin than any democratic victor going back to JFK. This is the vote you indicated overwhelmingly voted for trump. under that definition every democratic winner (and possibly some democratic losers) since JFK where more overwhelming voted for.

Definitions matter. Making up definitions to support the narrative you desire is misleading. Incorrect usage of majority added to questionable usage of overwhelmingly to advance a narrative is deceitful.

The US is getting more divided. false narrative does not help. My view is in general it has been going this way for decades.

Out

Fair enough. We can play word games all day. We can say Biden and Obama won overwhelmingly. That is fine. This is isn’t about about picking sides. Its about people either voted for him based on his clearly laid out agenda, Or they didn’t vote against it. Regardless all the chambers are Red. Call it what you will.what I know is there was a 9 million vote swing. My opinion or thoughts on the matter don’t change who in office.the people have spoken and have said they want what he campaigned on.Be it a blow out or one vote win. In the end it doesn’t matter the size of the win. A win is a win. I hope he does well. I hope the next president does well. I hope you do well.

What’s my narrative? I don’t have one I stated that republicans swept the elections they have an all red house. To me that is kinda of a blowout. I feel like the country “ overwhelmingly “ felt this way since it was a sweep in popular and electoral house and senate as well as I don’t think democrats did better in any county than they did last time. These are truths. Sorry we don’t see eye to eye on terms. Sheesh is this how bill mauer feels

This view I more understand. The legislature, executive, and judicial are all red currently. But the margins on both legislative branches are very small. The Executive branch did not get the majority of the vote. If left leaning justices were more aware of their health and the nature of the legislative branch, the judicial could have a different makeup.

I also want to point out that my view of overwhelming does not apply to any term since Reagan. It is rare that a party has control of all 3 branches, even if the margin is razor thin. It is the reality.

This does not change that I wish the country was less divided. I think the fact that all 3 branches are currently right leaning does not imply that the country is not very divided.

I hear JD and Trump state falsehoods like Trump won the majority of the vote or there is a clear mandate. The reality is his margin of victory on the popular vote is less than every democratic winner going back to JFK. they state this falsehood to give the false impression that the majority of voters voted for his actions (which is not the case).

I agree some things needed addressing but believe that many of Trumps actions are against the law. The deficit needs addressing, but congress should have control of the purse. Congress is abdicating their power because they do not have the votes to do the things that trump is doing by executive order that are not in his power to lawfully do. It is an interesting but dangerous precedent.

I view this as potentially very dangerous. I think we all hope this works out.

Regardless, I think we are in for a bumpy ride. fortunately, I believe that I would do great financially regardless of who won the presidential election. If taxes go down for higher tax basis, I will move more taxable money to tax free options allowing for greater wealth preservation.

Good luck

I could be wrong but I think he is gonna be able to push through what he was voted in to do. He has both senate and house. This gonna help him push his agenda. We can not like the man in office all we want, but once the charade is over he is gonna be able to do what his constituents voted him in n to do.word it how you may but more people were in favor of his policies than were opposed. Regardless how it’s spun. People are going to expect a return in thier investment. He said such and such. Now the greater number of people who voted for him expect him to follow through.We may not like the political arena but the other side is not always wrong and my side is not always correct. Take the propaganda out of each party and look at actual content I think we would be less “devisive”. Hope you do well in the next four years and the four after that

I do not think he will need to push much through the legislative branch and that if he tried he would not succeed. What appears to be happening is he is making executive orders that should fall under congressional purvey. The legislature is abdicating their role in the process because they recognize it would not pass the legislation (at least not without revoking the filibuster).

This is the dangerous precedent. Each branch of government has their role as a means to constrain the other branches. If a branch abdicates its responsibility, another branch can assume powers that are not theirs.

The legislative branch allowing the executive branch to assume power that does not belong with the executive branch is a means to get around the difficulties or getting anything passed by the legislature.

I offer as evidence that the legislation could not pass these changes the question "what has this legislation passed of any significance?" Anything?

I think politics will forever be changed, and not for the better.

Good luck

Who got over a million Ukrainians killed while their buddies in the defense industry made billions? Who pretended COVID came from a bat and scrubbed the internet when they pointed out that you still get COVID after taking the vaxes? Who pretended to believe that Biden's pervert, crackhead kid's laptop which had proof financial crimes committed by his low life Dad was Russian disinformation and scrubbed and then censored the internet to ensure that his Biden was elected Commander and Chief? I agree that politics has changed but Trump is not the change he is the response to average Americans being sold out.

3 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@James Wise

agree with that, as regardless of anyone's opinion on what we should do, i think that is what voters said and voted for. one thing that is interesting to me (and maybe this brings us back to real estate?) is the following.

i think almost everyone in this thread would agree with point 6 of @JD Martin - that the debt being accumulated is totally unsustainable. and, (hopefully this is apolitical too) natural population growth in the US is slowing drastically. so... if population growth is slowing, the debt is increasing, and immigration slows... won't that eventually hurt demand for real estate?

Jason Hartman, whom I don't agree with on probably more than I do, but whom I follow closely because I appreciate his perspective and all the data he leverages, talks a lot about this. he sees an inflection point potentially in the late 2030s when this all comes together... fewer workers for every retiree, the SS trust fund runs out, potentially more of the budget is going to interest...

Curious why you (and anyone else) think the US population is slowing? Why do your fellow citizens not want too, or to take it a step further, why do folks not believe it is their duty to have children to pass along their values and traditions to? Should our nation create an economy, society, and teach values that would encourage people to have families? Currently our government and other institutions pretend to be neutral but everything from Taylor Swift to cat sweatshirts says that is not the case.

I know your a reasonable/practical guy genuinely curious how you answer this. Thanks for humoring me I'm sure you weren't expecting that question! Lol

0 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

@Jay Hinrichs Is that Saddlestone where your development was? I remember it well as a buy and hold guy it was brutal for the developers it was as bad as it gets. I recall a few guys committing suicide.

the one in Sisters was if I recall correctly you head out 20 towards Bend and it was right on the east side of town and right off of 20.. And yes I know of more than a few that took their own lives .. So many on BP were not in the bizz in those days and simply have no clue how bad it was for many.. I mean I got financially wiped out personally.. And basically had to start over.. When your tenants dont pay and your borrowers cant refi and your banks call your loans ( like we see happening RIGHT NOW in the MF space) projects and RE gets lost and investors get wiped out .. Plenty of MF LPS being wiped out monthly these days.. what we see on BP with folks is just a small smattering.. and many of the MF deals the GPs are just kicking the can down the road with the cash calls and in another few years they to will lose the proejcts.

That is really cool I had no idea I've followed you a long time and knew you were an Oregon guy and fished the Deschutes and Metolius, no idea you were involved in real estate so close to me. If we got into the same situation as 2008 do you how do you think you would fair? Do you feel like you got some takeaways personally from 2008? If it takes to long to answer don't worry about it, sounds like it would make a good, long BP episode.

0 Votes

Washington, DC

0 Votes

Washington, DC

@Jay Hinrichs I may not have the stones for that! LOL

0 Votes

Washington, DC

@JD Martin

You have taken my posts down for less then "bootlicking lackey's incapable of running a fruit stand" LOL

Trump, his lackey's and pathetic lackey supporters (like yours truly) believe that America can charge a premium price to countries that want to sell here in the states. In fact they believe that could finance 25% or more of our entire federal expenditures. If that means we import less consumer plastic niknaks or throw away appliances so be it. If the financial engineers, globalists (whatever you want to call them) can't make as large of a fortune good. But the wealthiest Americans success should be tied tied directly, to the success and opportunities of working Americans currently they are not, that is what Trump (that beautiful orange man) tapped into and what MAGA is all about.

@Scott Trench I love you but I do get "triggered" (as I am not above that) by these reductionist debates or attitudes which I know you are trying not push. What is good for American families and communities will be good for real estate in the long run.

6 Votes

Denver, Colorado

@Jay Hinrichs @Henry Clark

In your estimation did the price of these projects/land go up after it was in contract over 18 months, during your hold? Or was there that much meat on the bone from the get? You spoke of the risk via the county etc but what about the risk of the market dropping during your hold? Do you view that a significant risk in this deal and others like it? Thx for sharing and congrats that is a ton of success,

0 Votes

Washington, DC

How long did the process take from walking the dirt to closing with one of the big builders?

0 Votes

Washington, DC

I like it, so much I'm doing almost exactly that with a partner. We are building a place with HELOCs then after it is built we will finance it and pay off our HELOC, at least thats our plan. Ran the numbers every which way and it made the most sense by far.

0 Votes

Portland, Maine

All Forum Posts by: Eric Bilderback

Eric Bilderback has started 56 posts and replied 932 times.

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

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Post: How to make a million dollars with a capital partner with subdivision entitlements

Post: How to make a million dollars with a capital partner with subdivision entitlements

Post: How to make a million dollars with a capital partner with subdivision entitlements

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: How to make a million dollars with a capital partner with subdivision entitlements

Post: How to make a million dollars with a capital partner with subdivision entitlements

Post: HELOC/HARD MONEY advice?