All Forum Posts by: Sid Franklin

CPS remains in perpetual crisis mode.  You have to wonder when white collar families will say enough is enough and head to the suburbs?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/watchdog/ct-cps...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editori...

Crain's on Chicago's Pension debt: What are the odds Emanuel wins pension case? Not so good

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20151120/NE...

A couple of good posts detailing the enormity of Chicago's pension debt.

Moody’s: It’s really bad

Tuesday, Nov 10, 2015

* Greg Hinz looks at a new study of the Chicago pension situation…

What a mess today.  A 9 year old boy is executed and Spike Lee releases the Chi-Raq movie trailer.  Both will shine an even brighter light on Chicago's crime problem.  Since the City and State are flat broke, no new resources will be available to try to throw at this problem.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/movies...

More bad news from CPS and CTU.  CPS pushes off massive classroom cuts to January but CTU begins preparations for a long strike.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20151102/BL...

http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/...

http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/...

From Crain's: "But he also gave state lawmakers and Gov. Bruce Rauner a somewhat longer window to act—through January—before the big ax will have to fall and potentially thousands of teachers will be out of job.

In a press conference that followed an off-the-record briefing for reporters, Claypool again warned as he has since he took over last summer that CPS has a $480 million hole in its current budget and that while a bit of that might be filled by borrowing, much of it won't.

"Cuts are at the classroom door," Claypool said at one point. "All roads lead to Springfield."

Claypool and Mayor Rahm Emanuel want the state to begin picking up the cost of Chicago teacher pensions, just like it does for every other school district in Illinois. Doing so would save the system about $200 million a year just in current costs.

But today, Claypool widened his case to include other alleged underfunding, saying that since 2009, state funding for CPS has dropped $459 per year per student, while it has grown $1,572 for other districts. As a result, Chicago now gets 26 percent less in per-pupil state funding than other districts do, according to Claypool's math.

"That's fundamentally unfair," Claypool told reporters. "It's not right."

1. The City's current budget is based on pension reforms likely to be found unconstitutional.  When that happens, billions will added back on to the City's books.

2. The City's current budget is based on not paying promised retiree healthcare benefits likely to be found unconstitutional. When that happens, billions will added back on to the City's books.

3.  The City's police and fire pension payment (the cause of the current tax hike) is legal if and only if the Legislature and Governor agree to lower the ramp payments required under current law.

4. The CPS pension system is in deep debt.  No moneys have been earmarked in the current CPS budget to make this year's $500+ million dollar pension payment.  If Springfield does not provide the money, the plan is to cut teachers.

5.  The City's other pension funds are also in deep trouble.

6.  Properties under $250K may be exempted from the current (and future) tax hikes which will shift the burden on to gentrified neighborhoods, businesses and renters.

7.  No real structural changes have been made so public employee wages, benefits and other costs can go up requiring further revenues from taxpayers.  The City has demonstrated no ability to slow down the growth and cost of government.

8.  City of Chicago taxpayers also pay Cook County and other taxing Districts pension and retirement healthcare costs.  All are deeply underfunded.  The County just gave out large pay raises while raising the sales tax 1%.  The County has demonstrated no ability to slow down the growth and cost of government.

9.  The State of Illinois is in deep pension debt.  Income taxes are likely increasing and Bruce Rauner is attempting to slow the growth and cost of government, however, he's also pushing for items likely to create stagnation and a crisis in higher ed, CPS and law enforcement before the State's budget gets put in place.  It is very unlikely that the State will have the financial ability to bail out CPS over the next 1 -6 months.

10.  Other than property taxes, there seems to be no political will to tax other items.  Even a sugar tax was rejected this year by the Mayor and City Council.

Yes, the reckoning is starting.  Let's hope that we all can deal with its many financial challenges.  It will be interesting to see how property owners with children deal with tax spikes and cuts to CPS' budget likely to create higher class sizes.  That said, if businesses keep moving to Illinois and Chicago, we may be able to grow our way out of this mess.  However, right now, growth is one gigantic "if."

You are correct, on the north side and in other gentrified areas of Chicago where there are many families with children, it's all about the schools and crime.

The same thing happened in Lincoln Park, Lakeview, Bucktown, Wicker Park, Logan Square, etc.. when those neighborhoods were changing in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. In Chicago, neighborhoods are very fluid.  Younger generations will gentrify areas that are cheaper so they can live in the City.  Student loan debt and rent spikes will fuel a drive to even cheaper areas within the City and the local owners will embrace it but the tenants will be upset by the gentrifiers because their rents will go up and new, different businesses will push out older, familiar shops.

I find it a little ironic that a couple of anti-gentrification folks are resorting to these types of tactics to keep presumably white gentrifiers out of a German neighborhood.  I do find it interesting that latino neighborhoods tend to gentrify over african-american neighborhoods (with the exception of Hyde Park).  It will be very interesting to see what happens when the post racial Gen yers move into Bronzeville and North Kenwood.

Agreed, Lakeview HS needs a lot of work to develop a strong reputation for providing a good CPS education.  If kids from Bell, Coonley, Blaine, Burley, Nettlehorst, etc. went to Lakeview instead of into selective enrollment (the equivalent of winning the lottery) or, more likely, private school or the suburbs, the Lakeview HS District would create a great community and improve property values.  If your family's plan involves using a good CPS public school K-8, their are many families now holding there breath waiting for more cuts, a CTU strike and higher class sizes.  Because property values are so tied to good schools in the 47th, 44th, 32nd and 43rd Wards, Ald. Pewar is correct to focus on keeping K-8 education strong and improving Lakeview HS so folks do not need to seek alternatives for educating their kids after K-8.  As the north side is asked to shoulder more of the tax burden to pay off Chicago's debt, you have to wonder if the City can muster the political will and skill to improve, rather than cut, education.  I think my neighbors will tolerate higher taxes so long as the schools get better and crime stays the same.  However, if the perception is that schools and crime are getting worse, many will sell (even at a loss) to provide a good education for their children.  If northsiders start to flow to the suburbs, the city will lose a lot of tax revenue which will cause taxes to go up on those that stick around.