Originally posted by Vikram C.:
Bryan, I think we have different perspectives on where RE is in the cycle. I think it is on the way down and has a long way down to go yet. Your post suggests that you think it is close to the bottom.
I guess only time will tell which one of us is right. If I had your view on RE prices, then it would make sense to buy-and-hold right now. If you had my view on it, it would make no sense to buy at this time because your long-term return could get wiped out by capital losses. (Leverage works both ways.)
Vikram, both you and Bryan have great points. But, if you see the market going down further, how far can real estate drop? to 0? Barring some major catastrophe, no, I don't think so. But if you are buying for the long term (more than say 10 years) will it matter if you buy now or a few years from now? Even if the market tanks another 20 or 30 percent in the near future, I don't think that would matter much 15 or 20 years down the line.