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All Forum Posts by: Scott Trench

Scott Trench has started 160 posts and replied 2591 times.

Post: Get a BiggerPockets T-Shirt!

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151
Originally posted by @Deborah Tuck:

Does it post to Australia?

 Yes!  Shipping to Australia and most countries is available.  It might be a little bit more for shipping than in the U.S. of course!

Post: Talk To People!

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151

@Zach Davis Love this!  

So about a year ago I wanted to quit my job and invest in Real Estate.  I talked to anyone and everyone I could about this, and ended up falling into a mastermind group of like minded people.  Through that network, I met a guy named @Joshua Dorkin and another guy - @Brandon Turner .  

One thing led to another, and here I am now with a duplex and a job where I get to study Real Estate Investing across the country all day, every day.  

Talk to People.  Follow up with people.  Provide value for free for people that you find interesting and want to associate with.

Post: BR Pro Forums

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151

Hey @Robert M. The Pro only forum is a great place to get questions answered that you might not be comfortable exposing to the general community.  Perhaps you need help dealing with a unique tenant situation and don't want that person seeing a public thread or have a situation where you are unsure of the appropriate way to handle interactions with a bank/insurance company, contractor, or similar.  

Post: Get a BiggerPockets T-Shirt!

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151
Originally posted by @Rick H.:

Why don't you GIVE them to milestone posters! 

After all, they create the content that makes your site (and advertisers) possible.

 Hey now.. we bought our own here at the HQ ;)

Post: Get a BiggerPockets T-Shirt!

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151
Originally posted by @Roy N.:

Meh...  Where's the Bigger Pocket? On the back?

 The BiggerPockets "Logoman" is on the front!  We kept it simple.  Check out the teespring link!

Post: In Your Market, Does Real Estate Beat the Stock Market Over the Long Term?

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151
Originally posted by @Adam Hershman:
Originally posted by @Scott Trench:
Originally posted by @Jeff S.:

@Scott Trench most analysts that favor stocks don't consider the income from the properties but will reinvest the dividends from stocks. How do you account for the income (not cash flow) from the properties. Where is that money at the end of the scenario? Has it been reinvested somewhere earning something as your stock earn dividends?

Thanks for this point.  All cash-flow, whether from dividends, or from the net of expenses from the property, is considered to be tax-free and is reinvested in the stock indices immediately.  

Sure that's simplistic, but no matter how I structure the income and tax strategies of both types of investments, I open up those strategies to critique, and begin a discussion on the best way to tax advantage real estate income.  Real Estate would arguably produce even greater incremental returns over stocks if an intelligent tax deferral strategy were pursued.

 Actually RE is much more tax advantaged than traditional investments, and dividends are not considered tax-free, qualified dividends are subject to a 15% tax (same as cap gains) and NQ dividends are subject to earned income rate in most cases. Unless you're investing in government debt, in which case your interest may be local, state, and/or federal tax free depending on the debt issue.

Adam

Adam - quite correct on all points.  I simply didn't bake this into my model as I believe that I would be challenged on various tax strategies.  For example - is the house owner-occupied and therefore the interest is written off agains personal income?  Or is it in a business, and the property is depreciated?  And that's just the tip of the iceberg. 

I would prefer to leave the tax advantages of the two types of investments to a separate discussion, as I think it is a layer of complexity that takes away from the more wholistic, larger discussion that might be driven from my model.

Post: In Your Market, Does Real Estate Beat the Stock Market Over the Long Term?

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151
Originally posted by @Jeff S.:

@Scott Trench most analysts that favor stocks don't consider the income from the properties but will reinvest the dividends from stocks. How do you account for the income (not cash flow) from the properties. Where is that money at the end of the scenario? Has it been reinvested somewhere earning something as your stock earn dividends?

Thanks for this point.  All cash-flow, whether from dividends, or from the net of expenses from the property, is considered to be tax-free and is reinvested in the stock indices immediately.  

Sure that's simplistic, but no matter how I structure the income and tax strategies of both types of investments, I open up those strategies to critique, and begin a discussion on the best way to tax advantage real estate income.  Real Estate would arguably produce even greater incremental returns over stocks if an intelligent tax deferral strategy were pursued.

Post: In Your Market, Does Real Estate Beat the Stock Market Over the Long Term?

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151
Originally posted by @Christian Carson:

@Scott Trench, nice illustration. 

Small nit, though.

My minimum "price-to-rent" criteria actually works out to be around 4.16, not 10. At 50% expenses, that gets you to a 10% cap rate.

Even unleveraged, with token appreciation of 3%, real estate handily defeats stocks.

The stock market will reward you if you pick the winners. Real estate will, too. I'm much better at picking wining real estate deals than corporations. There's that whole thing about not being privy to board meetings that bothers me about it.

I eschew diversification, as does Warren Buffet. He likes to call his method "focus investing." As in your business, you should pick something you do well, and do more of it. 

Thanks Christian!  Really like this comment.  I intentionally leave those inputs free to be changed in my model and if you only buy properties that meet superior criteria, then you will be better off than the stock market if your assumptions prove correct.  My intention with the defualt inputs was to simply expose average market conditions for the average investors with no savvy like yourself.  

That said, I think (and I think you may agree) that Real Estate is an investment niche in which it little easier to pick winners in over time than the stock market.  

Post: In Your Market, Does Real Estate Beat the Stock Market Over the Long Term?

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151

So I want to make a couple additional points here:

@Adam Hershman When it comes to the long-term, I'd be interested to seee evidence that leveraged ETFs outperform market indices over the long-term.  It's my understanding that they are usually not for the passive investor.  

With regards to liquidity - liquidity is a minor concern for me on an investment that I plan to keep for 30 years. I understand that this is an important factor for some investors - but for a long-term investment that I purchase with the full intention of holding for 30 years, I guess I'm just not as concerned with the ability to liquidate my property in the next 12 months. I consider the huge upside over the course of the next 30 years that comes with my FHA financed 5% down property and the historical returns of Denver, CO to vastly outweigh the detracting consideration of less liquidity on the property than a position in the stock market.

@Jay Hinrichs and @Matt R. I don't particularly like the Apple argument.  It's easy to point out how stocks are great when you pick the most successful company of all time as your example.  It's the average that counts for me.  

Post: In Your Market, Does Real Estate Beat the Stock Market Over the Long Term?

Scott Trench
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 2,734
  • Votes 6,151

@Adam Hershman Thanks for the thoughtful response!

Two address your two criticisms:

1) Over the long-term (10-30 years), it is extremely difficult to leverage your stock portfolio.  Could you please provide examples of how folks are able to leverage 10 to 30 year positions in the stock market at interest rates in the same ballpark of real estate?

2) With a long-term focus, my interest in liquidity is dismissed.  I am not investing for rapid gains that I have instant access to.  I am investing for long-term wealth.   

Overall - as a young person that does not have a portfolio to diversify, it is my belief that I can really only reasonably make a single investment with my first $20,000.  To that end, I believe that it really IS Real Estate vs. The Stock Market.  The question is "what is the best possible use of my money to create long term wealth for myself?"  The math that I've done seems to indicate that leveraged Real Estate is far more powerful on average than the stock market.

@Andrew Martin I'd make the same point to you as well - I don't have a portfolio to diversify this early in my professional life.  I plan to be diversified in the future, but as of now, I am making the most with my first significant investment.  I do plan to pour money into the stock market over time.  But what comes first?  For me - that's the investment with the highest total long-term potential.

@Matt R. Thanks for the comment!  I agree that stocks are better if you are unwilling to risk leverage or to put in the dirty work to get those above average performing properties.