Looks like I am going to get to at least make an offer on what would be my first deal. This is a FSBO in Fort Worth, Tx. It is a fairly new neighborhood with most of the houses being built in the early to mid 2000s. There is still some limited construction going on in the neighborhood and new construction about a half mile away in the same general price point for these houses.
Here is what I have up to this point. The guy told me that he could list the property for about $140k but he is relocating to TN and needs to sell fast so he is trying the FSBO at $125k. The property is a 4/2.5 2 story (2178 sq. ft.) built in 2004. From my not so expert eye it looks structurally sound and the A/C looks really clean so I'm guessing that it's in pretty good shape. The roof looks good and no signs of any water leakage on any of the 2nd floor ceilings.
Now, it is missing 2/3rd of the back fence and the remaining 1/3rd is in pretty bad shape. The inside absolutely needs paint throughout but I think the flooring on the ground floor could work being in pretty good shape though the kitchen is linoleum and the rest is a rather low grade hardwood laminate. The upstairs is also linoleum in the 2 baths and the same hardwood laminate in all but 2 of the bedrooms. Both carpeted bedrooms need to have new carpet.
The kitchen seems to be a mess with 3 missing drawers, no idea how those could be replaced so I'm guessing new cabinets are probably necessary. The counters are cheap formica with some swelling in the 9- degree seem in a corner. Appliances are all black but is does have the benefit of a huge walk-in pantry/laundry area.
Comps in the area are all over the place. They range from $46/sq ft all the way up to $84/sq ft with the average being in the mid to upper 60s. This gives me a ARV of somewhere between about $105k and $170k, which is obviously a ridiculous range. I think the most realistic comps come from that street in the past 4 months at $60 and $65 getting me in an ARV of about $131k to $142k.
Working with the middle of that ARV...
ARV = $136k
70% rule = $95,200
Estimated repairs = $15k
Misc expenses (10%) = $8k
Wholesale fee = $5k
Max offer = $67,200
Honestly I think if I offered the guy $67k I would suddenly be hearing a dial tone. I really don't think this is a possibility for a flip. However, I wonder about the possibility of this being a workable rental. I'm really not good on the numbers for that side of things. I believe that the repair costs could be reduced to just paint and re-carpet the two upstairs bedrooms if drawers could be found/made to match the existing cabinets. I'm guessing maybe $7500 on the repairs. I would still like to get the $5k on the wholesale fee and I doubt that the misc expenses is going to change much. So targeting this as a wholesale to a buy & hold rental landlord gets me where? Does the 70% rule still apply to this situation?
Rents in the area for this size and bed/bath configuration are going around $1300 to $1450 per month. Property taxes are about $3500/yr and the HOA is I believe $300/year.
So... Where do I stand?!?! Thanks in advance for any feedback, recommendations or suggestions.