Jeremiah made a lot of good points and I agree with a lot of what he said. Don’t ever put your future into some companies algorithm about properties that they’ve never even set foot in
70% ARV -rehab cost is greedy in my opinion. If the house is close to worth what you estimated and you put $30,000 in rehab you're offering $120,000 plus below what it should be going for.
Everybody knows Realestate is hot right now. Even people who know nothing about real estate. If you lowball somebody like that given their situation and the fact that from what you stated this seems to be mostly cosmetic you’re going to lose the deal. Theres a good chance they’re going to consult someone local about the value of that home and when it comes back hundred plus thousand more than what you offered they’re going to forget your number.
Be fair in your offer with your level of experience and your level of risk tolerance.
I go to Kaysville area usually couple times a week, I’ve estimated(adjuster) 100+ claims since the hail storm that hit in August up there. Let me know and if I’m up there and we can coordinate I’ll do a quick walk-through with you.
Sounds like you have a good in and a good chance to get an off market deal. Do your due diligence and research and make this happen.