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All Forum Posts by: Christopher B.

Christopher B. has started 26 posts and replied 686 times.

Post: Where’s the Bubble?

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531
Originally posted by @Bruce Woodruff:
Originally posted by @Christopher B.:

I'm not a fan of bailouts but I'd love to hear what you think should have been done differently. 

Speaking in very general terms, you have to let things fail sometimes. Regardless of the consequences. Yes it hurts but ripping off the bandaid is the quickest way to recovery for anything/anyone. We would have had a serious collapse but better than what we got. We taught the irresponsible that they will be forgiven no matter what they do. And the financial gift was selective. Another bad lesson.

I don't disagree that golden parachutes shouldn't be handed out. Ultimately there needed to be repercussions for those responsible and there were not. You don't consciously tank the worlds economy to teach a few bad apples a lesson though. I think OP said it best, what changes came from that event that improved the financial system.. overall I don't see anything drastic. However, I am glad I didn't live through a Great Depression eating wild onion soup like my grandfather. 

Post: Where’s the Bubble?

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531
Originally posted by @Canesha Edwards:

@Christopher B.

Let me reword my statement. The way in which QE was conducted, the amount which was given and the duration of the program was a bad move.

How does it make sense to hand over money to the same people who mishandled it in the first place? There were not enough restrictions in place and the real problem was not enough of the corporate people in charge were punished. I most certainly would have let more institutions fail. If the Fed wanted to be of such help, give stimulus to the people’s who’s retirement was wiped out. Provide stimulus to the employees who lost jobs. But bailing out the corporations with a slap on the wrist was the wrong move. The only lesson learned here was that you’ll get off pretty easy. The government should have treated corporate America with tough love instead of enabling them. As we’ve seen with the pandemic the government has the means to prop up the economy. If the public loses confidence in the banks, maybe that will force banks to get it together.

These corporate executives didn’t experience any negative impacts personally when compared to the average person who’s retirement was squandered away at no fault of their own.

Here’s a better question? How did QE make the financial system a better Stewart of the public’s money? Or did it just open the door for future negligence due to lack of consequences?

"Tough love', like it and I do agree on this. Where were the repercussions? In general I am not a fan of bailouts, actions deserve consequences whether good or bad. I don't think we had the option to let them all fail in that scenario, catastrophic circumstances awaited. Shouldn't have handed out golden parachutes though.

Banks do a better job with loan requirements now but you'll get no disagreement from me that gov't leadership at that time failed to use the events of the crash as a catalyst for change that could improve the system. It's a tough line as well. I believe in a free market and don't want burdensome regulation but we must have regulation as well. 

I don't follow things as closely as I used to but it seems like the corps have learned they need to add some diversification into their supply chains. Wages are rising in China as well, they're focused on creating a middle class so manufacturing is moving around, including back to the US. We'll see what happens there. 

If we want gov't leaders to think past their next election campaign and on the bigger picture then we need to restructure term limits. Otherwise we will always be playing hot potato. Not many have the fortitude of Voeckler. We'll see if Powell can handle the pressure and do what's best for the economy long-term. 

Post: Where’s the Bubble?

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531
Originally posted by @Bruce Woodruff:
Originally posted by @Christopher B.:

If QE was the wrong move in 2008 what was the correct one? Let the world revert back to medieval times? 

Those weren't the only two options. As you gain age and wisdom, you'll understand a bit more.

I'm not a fan of bailouts but I'd love to hear what you think should have been done differently. This was a great case study for us during college while I was getting my degree in finance. 

Post: Where’s the Bubble?

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531
Originally posted by @Canesha Edwards:

@Aaron Gordy

Inflation reached 14% during that time. Interest rates were increased to 20%. The current U.S inflation rate is 6.2% percent, with the next inflation report being tomorrow, let’s see if it’s lower or higher.

I have never been a fan of QE. I think it was the wrong move in ‘08 and I think it was the wrong move now.

Now, personally I’m not concerned because I own my investment properties outright and plan on holding for 30 years. So, I’m good regardless if prices or interest rates go up or down. I know many investors like this or who at least have long term fixed rates.

However, like I stated in my original post, all these syndicator’s who’s business model is solely based on rising rents and refinancing are going to be in for a rude awakening when interest rates start rising. Rates have been too low for too long and cheap money makes people risky and irresponsible.

 If QE was the wrong move in 2008 what was the correct one? Let the world revert back to medieval times? 

Post: Where’s the Bubble?

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531
Originally posted by @Canesha Edwards:

@Austin Johnson

Hey Austin. Thanks for the response. Yes, Peter is one of the few that I listen to and I agree with him and everything you said.

If you haven’t- study the 1970s and Paul Volcker’s massive interest rate hikes. The situation is identical in some instances and different in others. However, the one things that is constant in both situations is low interest rates and slow economic growth. Volcker raised Rates in a massive way and yes the economy did suffer through 2 recessions during this time but it caused the US to get their **** together. (Excuse my language). And that is what needs to happen today. As a business, if you’re only able to thrive in a low credit economy where money is cheap, the you need to re-evaluate your business practices. Solid companies are able to maintain through good and bad times. The US is a heavily debt burdened country, with a devaluing currency, who’s GDP is at historical lows.

The bubble needs to pop and it needs to pop quick or we’re headed for worse. The government has only kicked the can down the road and nobody wants to do what NEEDS to be done for the greater good of the economy.

Canesha

We're not on the gold standard, we have no real debt. Selling treasuries keeps foreign dollars from international trade here in the US which helps fuel our economy. There is no financial  requirement for us to sell treasuries to operate our economy and we could pay all of our "debt" with the push of a button though it wouldn't be the smartest thing to do so. 

Productivity is strong and wages aren't as out if line as people claim. Minimum wage in 1900 was $4/hr adjusted for inflation. If someone can't find a $15-16/hr job then they're not looking and they'd be making 4x the money people did then. So is the issue with wages low incomes or high spending? People have much more they can and like to spend their money on these days in comparison. Multiple cars, smart phones, internet, computers, streaming, etc

Since 1900, inflation adjusted housing cost is about flat and food has gone down due to advances in farm technology. It wouldn't hurt my feelings to see the top 1% pay more in taxes but there's not been a better time to be alive.  

We'll see about the commercial bubble. There is a lot of money out there right now chasing returns. Wouldn't hurt me feelings if the Fed raised rates.

Post: Contractor looking for investor

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531
Originally posted by @Shane Ryan:

@Christopher B. I was a little worried that most people wouldn't understand the area. Not sure where a majority of biggerpockets members were based out of. Coming from south Florida 15 years ago, I could have never dreamed of land and terrain like this.

As I mentioned in the post prior to yours. I'm really just a wholesaler at this point. But a wholesaler with a different skill set than the average bear.

Larger developments are the only ones that make sense in this area right now. All the smaller parcels have been bought by out of state buyers at double their actual value (and most of it that I've heard of was site unseen.)

I'm working on a park right now. Just the rock on the roads without my bill was $25k, the septic system I'm installing in almost $100k. We put in $12000 worth of waterline last week and still have another mile to go. On this particular site. My services will equal probably a 3rd of the entire project. Now it may be because I'm not as wealthy as others but $100-$150k with no up front cost is not a minimal amount of money on a project.

I'm not as close to the tourist areas as you are so I don't see cabins going real well here unless it's focused on motorcycle riders. It wouldn't work out as well as Gatlinburg or pigeon forge. But being as this is the number 1 motorcycle destination on the planet it could still work if it were cost effective for everyone from the investor to the STR biker.

So I'm guessing my bigger question would be how to go about structuring the deal? If I'm only bringing 10% to the deal, I wouldn't expect 50% of the final value. But at the same time if I'm bringing 10% I shouldn't just get the 10% I put in at the end.

I'm going to.go talk to a few old customers this week. People sitting on 50-100 acres that were inherited. See if I can strike a deal with them. See if I can't talk to them about clearing and preparing 2-5 acre parcels to sell. It will cost them nothing so they can only gain from my inexperience. Worse that can happen is that I spend a few weeks and walk away empty handed. Best is that the land will sell quick, I'll make some money and the client will want to divide the rest of the land up and continue doing the same.

I appreciate your input. And welcome it.

I run my dumptruck(I don't but my drivers do) from Lenoir city to Etowah, Tellico to spring city. If your interested in working in those areas I'll keep.you in mind if I find anything.

Thanks again.

No problem. I read your location as Seymour, not Sweetwater, my bad. 

The short answer for you is yes, a deal can be structured where you can get equity without contribution much or any of the capital.  

You'll need to:

1. Be bringing the deal to the investor which requires a level of knowledge in evaluating the opportunity 

2. Have the knowledge and skills to get, or at least significantly contribute to helping get the project completed

3. Putting in sweat equity. 

For example. I am looking at a commercial deal right now. I found the deal. Completed the market feasibility, which was verified via a 3rd party. I am putting together the plan which includes: the construction expenses, financing, pro-forma's, operations, etc. Unfortunately, I don't have enough capital right now to take it down by myself so I am talking to some investors on a partnership where they bring the cash and credit then I bring the deal, knowledge & skills to execute it, and some sweat equity as my company will handle the construction portion of the project. We'll most likely oversee the operations on the backside as well. 

I'll bring little to no money to the deal but take a substantial portion of the equity because of what I bring to the table. A structure like this is similar to what you'll need if you don't wanna bring cash in. It doesn't have to be that much to start with, anything can be negotiated, but you need knowledge and/or sweat equity if you want to avoid being limited to a wholesaler or bird dog on a deal you find.

Post: When is it time to treat yourself? [Reinvest VS Spend profit]

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531
Originally posted by @Mike Hasson:
Originally posted by @Christopher B.:

There has to be balance. Embracing delayed gratification is important and that discipline will help you achieve your bigger goals. However, you can't grind yourself to a nub either. You need to create big goals with milestones you achieve along the way. Predetermine some kind of reward/celebration for yourself when you hit these milestones. Could be a vacation. Could be a steak and lobster dinner. Whatever you want but make sure to celebrate the wins along the way or you will burn yourself out. Mentally, this will help provide motivation. Having a small taste of the fruits from your hard work and sacrifice will turn you into a success addict and accomplishing your goals will become your crack. 

I did the opposite of this advice and just about burnt myself out. I was always "too busy." Gotta live along the way.

I'd check out Profit First. It is about cash mgmt for business but it also discusses the ideology and psychological importance of rewarding yourself along the way. 

Also read Miracle Morning. It's about taking time for yourself first so that YOU can be the best version of yourself and how that will make you better in all aspects of your life.  

So many great ideas here! And funny you mention The Miracle Morning, I just finished it, followed by Change Your Habits, Change your Life in an effort to redesign my life and myself - and they have me rethinking my entire habit and reward system. 

Like just today after I accepted the offer on my house I went to my typical reward and chose a fancy bottle of scotch. I stood there for a while looking at it before realizing that I no longer even feel rewarded by this. I left without it, but with a question instead of "How do I congratulate myself now...?" Not that I'm avoiding alcohol for any specific reason, I just had this overwhelming feeling that not only could I find a better use of the cash, but that I'm just growing out of old habits, and now not sure what newer/better ones to replace them with. 

I think Profit First will help me to find some direction with setting those milestones and rewards, thank you for the insight and suggestions!

That is awesome. Love the mindset, sounds like you're on a great path.   

Post: When is it time to treat yourself? [Reinvest VS Spend profit]

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531

There has to be balance. Embracing delayed gratification is important and that discipline will help you achieve your bigger goals. However, you can't grind yourself to a nub either. You need to create big goals with milestones you achieve along the way. Predetermine some kind of reward/celebration for yourself when you hit these milestones. Could be a vacation. Could be a steak and lobster dinner. Whatever you want but make sure to celebrate the wins along the way or you will burn yourself out. Mentally, this will help provide motivation. Having a small taste of the fruits from your hard work and sacrifice will turn you into a success addict and accomplishing your goals will become your crack. 

I did the opposite of this advice and just about burnt myself out. I was always "too busy." Gotta live along the way.

I'd check out Profit First. It is about cash mgmt for business but it also discusses the ideology and psychological importance of rewarding yourself along the way. 

Also read Miracle Morning. It's about taking time for yourself first so that YOU can be the best version of yourself and how that will make you better in all aspects of your life.  

Post: In need of development advise!

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531

There are people who can offer more sage advice than I, hopefully they chime in for you but I'll do my best to provide some insights. 

Without spending some money you're not going to get a highly accurate cost of development, imo. Start with round #'s and work to continuously sharpen them as you check-off due diligence items during your feasibility process. 

There are a lot of variables to determining the cost of development.. hard costs, soft costs, financing costs, holding costs, etc. Does the city have impact fees, is there a lot of clearing and excavation work, soil conditions, engineering, are utilities convenient, plans, surveys, etc, etc.  

I'd look for knowledge in these places:

- go to local real estate meet-ups and ask around. A multifamily investor may or may not be there but someone will likely know who the local players are. 

 - If there is a local commercial GC doing a multifamily call them up and schedule a meeting. Discuss the situation and work to get some ballpark figures on the hard costs.  Contractors hate giving ballparks because there are so many variables but it can be done.  

- call to your building/zoning department to learn about the process, what can be done, fees, requirements, etc. This will give you some direction. 

- talk to commercial lenders. They may have some insight on #'s if they've financed a similar project and they may have some people they can connect you with. This could be beneficial on numerous levels

- contact local commercial developers. Google, pay attention to signs, etc. They can give you big picture numbers and connections if not be interested in a JV themselves which would incline them to spend some time helping determine viability and maybe even a pro-forma.

- reach out to syndicators

- good CPA's are well connected and know the numbers. Call yours and see what they can share and who they can connect you with. 

Post: Contractor looking for investor

Christopher B.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Knoxville, TN
  • Posts 701
  • Votes 531

Hey Shane, born and raised next door to you in Blount County and do specs myself. People that don't live here in these hills like we do can't fully understand the dynamics of us TN Hillbillies. 

As Andrew mentioned, lot clearing and excavation work, while expensive indeed, is a smaller % of the overall project and it'll be hard to find someone that will exchange equity for the work unless it's a larger development like the 50-250 acres you mention. If you have experience with cabins on the side of the mountain then there is even more value there as not all excavators know how to do that.  

The biggest value you would bring in this scenario is finding the deal. Your ability to "see dirt", as I call it, is valuable (especially if it's mountain work) because it's not easy but may not be enough alone. If you combined that skillet with knowledge of zoning ordinance and code then you'd be cooking. 

I personally do spec builds and development in Knox metro. For example, if you called me up and said 

"Chris, I found a sweet deal on 50 acres with amazing views for $300k, we'll need to rezone but there is precedent for it down the street so that shouldn't be an issue. I figure with road, septic, etc, etc we can do about 35 cabins, excavation is gonna take this long and cost this much, etc."

Combine that with doing the excavation work and you'd get equity in the deal. 

My .02 cents.