All Forum Posts by: Ryan Moyer

 This is a great point.  If people are waiting for pre-2022 type returns they are going to be waiting forever.  Even if we forget saturation, interest rates, and the economy for a minute, the biggest thing that will keep those returns away is that the secret is out.  This is the normal cycle for any new real estate investment vehicle.  The best returns are at the beginning, when people don't know how well it's working, when people are still sitting out because they don't think it's a safe investment style, etc.  As that investment type gets more popular and becomes more widely accepted as a legitimate investment vehicle, the returns go down.  And will keep going down forever as more and more people get into it.

Just look at long term rentals.  It used to be the 2% rule.  Then it was the 1% rule.  Now you can't even find 1% in most markets.  That's for no other reason than there are more and more people willing to buy and undercut each other on the returns.

Same thing for short term rentals. 18 months ago you could get 80% CoC. Now people aren't buying at 20-30% CoC because they want 80%. Well 80% is gone other than the occasional unicorn. And 5 years from now 20-30% CoC will be gone and more and more people come in and undercut each other for less.

I remember being on here in 2019 and the pitching point for the Smokies was that it was this secret STR spot where you could get great returns because all the places there were being managed by old school vacation rental companies taking 30% of revenue and not even listing on Airbnb/VRBO. So people didn't even know how much money they could make by just buying and self managing and sticking it on airbnb/vrbo with little else needed. Needless to say, everyone knows now. So you're not ever going to be able to buy a 5br house with a sweet view for $500k again like you could back when people didn't know you could gross $125k+ on that house.

More and more people will forever move into the space, and returns will forever decay.

To be frank, in the current market it is difficult to cash flow near Disney. Expenses were already high in the area, as Florida's taxes/insurance are very high, most of these resort HOA's are high ($400+ per month), and maintenance costs are usually high as you're getting a lot of young kids that like to jump around on stuff in your place. Now add high interest rates and higher prices that have not yet adjusted for area travel trends returning back to normal somewhat, alongside lower ADR and occupancy with the MASSIVE increase in quality listings over the last year, and this market isn't what it was like a year ago.

Disney area used to be easy.  Buy, theme, profit.  It's much more difficult now.  If you're not willing to go REALLY all-out on theming I'm not sure it's the slam-dunk cash-flowing investment it used to be.  Still a great place if you enjoy Disney and want a place of your own with rent subsidizing the cost.

Agree with the others on the photos not being great (too dark), and the need for dynamic pricing.  On a specific note, while the idea of sitting by a creek in the back is nice, the photo of it (#19) is very unappealing.  We're in November now but maybe next spring re-take that one when there is a little more color in the back yard?

Not sure if this will make a huge difference, but I'd maybe move some of the stronger points out of the wordy description and into a bullet-point style list.  Reading the description reminded me a bit of writing an essay back in school where I was trying to pad the word count and put in a bunch of superfluous words and sentences.  I don't think I'd have kept reading if I were someone searching for a place.  Hard, stand-out bullet points with the highlights right at the top of the description, IMO.  You need to grab them right away.

There are a lot of companies getting rich off of this.  Both in selling homes fractionally for a total cost that far exceeds the market value, and by selling "shares" of STRs like stocks to raise capital.

From an individual perspective, I think the main problem is that it's a legal minefield, and you'd have to be extremely diligent with your bookkeeping and keeping things very transparent and up to date.  It definitely seems like something that is going to require significant time spent with a lawyer to flesh out.

Ryan Pineda had an AWESOME interview on the BiggerPockets podcast about how in the future this might be handled much more simply via NFTs, which would even allow you to re-sell your "share" of the home on the open market.  It sounded awesome, and way better than the system we have now, but it's probably not relevant if you're looking to do something now as it's mostly a pipe dream for the future.  For now, you're stuck with thousands of pages of legal documents to make this happen.

99% of people are either using their own account as a co-host attached to the property owner's account, or using a separate business account where they host all of the other listings under that one account.  IE they manage 10 other people's properties so they have one business account with those 10 listings in it.

It sounds like what you're wanting to do is create a separate Airbnb account for each property.  So to manage 10 properties you would have 10 Airbnb accounts.  That is definitely not normal SOP and not the way people typically do it.  If you wanted to do it that way could use a channel manager like Hospitable and add all 10 of those Airbnb accounts (which would each need their own email and phone number) to manage them from one place.  Or, you could add your primary account as a co-host on each of those 10 accounts and manage them from your primary.  But either way to create 10 accounts you need to 10 emails and 10 phone numbers.

Though, again, that would technically be against Airbnb's ToS unless you had 10 separate companies with 10 separate tax EIN's as well.

If you're asking what everyone else does, it's either create 1 separate business account that hosts all of their PM listings, or use their primary account as a co-host under the owner's Airbnb accounts. 

Yes, I believe that is correct.  You will need a separate email AND phone number for each account.  Then, if you want to keep it all easy to manage you can either use a channel manager like Hospitable, or add your own primary Airbnb account as a co-host to each of the other account's listings.  Then you'd be able to do 95% of everything from your primary account, and when you need to access the bank accounts etc you'd just log into the other account directly.

Note though, while I don't think they actually do much to enforce it yet, I believe Airbnb's terms allow you only 2 accounts (one for hosting and one for traveling in the case that you want to keep them separate) per SSN or Tax ID#.  So if you want to create a separate account technically you'd need to register as a business with an EIN.

Just tell them no one makes you bleed your own blood.

What are the numbers looking like now?  In the case study you posted you mentioned the case study only encompassed the high season and the highest high season ever.  How are things looking now that travel is leveling off a bit and interest rates are much higher?

 Yea $3300/yr is insane. I have individual months where I get near that with some of my properties. They must either be cleaning it themselves or have very low occupancy.