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All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Account Closed has started 11 posts and replied 613 times.

Post: Analyzing a 50-unit apartment- "The 1% Rule" ?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Kyle R.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Kyle R.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Kyle R.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Kyle R.:

 Are you saying you recently bought an 80 unit  apartment in Alexandria MN at that price? This would be a property in a similar condition not requiring rehab? The price per door will often vary per market.

The property required no rehab and was constructed in the 90's. The only issue that came up during inspection was two broken rafters, a couple disengaged shingles, a few holes in the vinyl siding, and cracks in the sidewalks. Total estimate to fix everything was about $5k. Property was 100% occupied at takeover and located near Charlotte, NC.

 Interesting... for all we know, you may have overpaid for your property based on what the market rate is in NC. Some areas in MN price per door is between $70,000 to $75,000. That is within the state of MN. I included a map here just so maybe someone else can help count how many states exist between NC and MN :) Again, different markets have different prices and cap rates. In New York for instance, $400,000 to $500,000 per door or more is normal rate.  

The property is currently performing at a 13.6 cap with rents 25% below market. Don't worry, I'm well aware of how many states exist between the two. I'm just not interested in paying 233% more per door when the rent rolls are the same. When I invest, I focus on cash flow. Paying under $15K per unit with rents averaging $400 a door is hard to beat. The per unit market price for this complex is $22K.

What kind of rent are you getting per door for $75K? By purchasing 80 units at $14.9K with an average rent of $400, I can purchase five units for $75k with a total rent of $2k. If you're paying $75k a door and bringing in more than $2k, my hat is off to you. I understand market prices vary, which is why certain markets are less financially advantageous.  At the end of the day, you're buying a rent roll. This all comes down to math, right? I can't see why spending $2.8M for a productive asset in Alexandria that generates an equal return of a $1.19M productive asset in Charlotte is a better decision.

 If you are in rentals then the core objective always is cash flow. 13.6% cap rate is sort of high and usually is the case for a low C or D area. What is the vacancy rate? Is it an economically depressed area? What is tenant turnover like?  Of course you are paying for cash flow but the certainty of the cash flow is also an issue.

It's a class C area. It's not an economically depressed town, it's actually going through a mild boom. A private university just announced they're moving their masters in health sciences program three miles from my complex. This will bring 200 students to the community. 

Vacancy rate has averaged 4% over the last three years. Turnover is minimal and my PM received 3-4 calls a week from prospective tenants wanting units. Only problem is I have no vacancies for them. Collections aren't an issue. 

Still curious to know the rent you're getting for $75k a door. 

 You can easily look on loopnet if you had to, there are 2 multifamily with 5+ units within 15 miles of Minneapolis (as of this posting) -- both are currently selling at about $70,000 per door.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Phillip Gant:
I gotta say managing 10 extra units for a little more potentially in the long run doesn't seem worth it. I say get the 2 in LA and avoid the stress of 12 in a bad neighborhood in Baltimore.

That is obviously one way of looking at it... another is that based on the numbers... the LA route produced $3855 monthly rental income while Baltimore, $9504 per month. Both on the same $1.5 mil with no leverage. 

If I offered some property management company a salary of either $3855 (LA) or $9504 (Baltimore) for the headache of managing a portfolio of properties, they are likely to go with Baltimore. Why make less with same headache? 

In the long term also, the LA route (both CF and appreciation) produces total of $2.06 mil while Baltimore $2.204 mil. If I were to tell an investor, which of these two would you prefer... its clear what they would also say. 

Mind you, most of the Baltimore CF has a lesser opportunity cost because most of the $2.204 mil is earned monthly in cash and redeployed for various use while the LA money is essentially trapped in equity until sale of property 10 years later.

If I were to use financing and reserve most of the $1.5 mil cash for servicing the debt.... that can be quite lethal an option.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Andrew Johnson:

@Account Closed Baltimore?  Why Baltimore?  Of all places, Baltimore?!?!  Sorry, I digress. 

No Andrew... its wasn't just the Ravens dance team in the initial post :) 

seriously, the numbers just made sense. The way I analyze markets to determine which have the best yield from a cash flow perspective kept pointing to Baltimore as one of a handful cities. The emphasis I feel I have to reiterate is on positive monthly cash flow.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Cassidy Burns:

This is a great post, I have learned more tonight than any other post yet. Thank you all for sharing.

 Good to hear Cassidy!

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Jon Lee:

HOLY OMG...this is a great thread!  One thing that hasn't been mention no matter if the locations are LA vs. Baltimore; San Diego vs. Detroit; San Francisco vs. St. Louis; or New York vs. Kansas City....the fact that you can spread your risk over more doors in the cheaper markets can be a factor that many investors could take into account.  I know it's a simple point...but an important one in my humble opinion.  Thanks for the great "what if" scenario with the numbers breakdown @Account Closed!

There is that of course.... investment by its very nature is risky business... typing up $1.5 mil in two properties is riskier than having same amount in 12 although someone can also argue that 12 properties also means more exposure to whatever liabilities (or headache) landlords typically face with tenants. But is almost $10,000 in positive monthly cash flow today more acceptable to a cash flow investor than say investig the same amount for $5000 - you bet!

Post: Airbnb, a threat to short term rentals - hotels, apartments etc?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Sebastian E.:

I guess that many Airbnb hosts will drop out of the market as the regulation becomes tougher. People will also start to realize that it's not free money. Airbnb takes a lot of work and I guess that will become clear to many current hosts over time.

As for safety concerns, I think this has to do a with a basic difference in worldview. I have hitchhiked throughout Europe, done couch surfing before that, and am an avid Airbnb user and guest. I am writing from an Airbnb in Bulgaria as we speak. My experiences have been overwhelmingly positive and by and large better and cheaper than staying in hotels during my travels. Hotels do not have to release the criminal activity occurring in their properties but my guess (and this is a guess) is that on average there is more crime happening per room in a hotel room than an Airbnb rental simply because you can have a lot more anonymity in renting a hotel than a profile and review based service like Airbnb. 

I am not here to impose my belief on anyone else and I also think there will also always be space for hotels in the market but I tend to think competition is a good think in these kinds of calcified markets to break monopolistic tendencies, encourage creativity, and ultimately bring more choice to the consumer. I also use Uber :)

This tracks some of my differences in how I also manage my rental properties and tenants. My guiding principle has been to give people the benefit of doubt and trust in the basic goodness of people. It's not so much that I think this is necessarily the most efficient way of running my business but it's the one that has worked for me so far. Of course as I scale my ideas on this may evolve.

Thank you all for your thoughts as always. 

Seb

It is very easy to distort issues... airBNB for the most part have been playing that card for a while now. They try to shift the publics focus from the fact that they are running an illegal business which enables their customers to break local laws and are making it a case where big money hotel is trying to impede their ability to do business.

You use hitchhiking as an example. In some areas its illegal. If you then set up a website to enable people to hitchhike in an area where it is illegal, does that mean hitchhiking is suddenly legal. No.

Of course we do not know what is going on behind closed doors in a hotel. Neither do we know what is going on behind closed doors in a various residential homes either using airBNB or not. 

Neither really matters, fact still is, city or state says residential building isn't zoned for use as a hotel, it ain't up to code! Host doest have a license to operate a hotel -- do you really want to be in a car operated by an unlicensed driver? 

Simply put, if the city or state says what they are trying to do is illegal, they have to comply. The current class action case by landlords (not the hotels by the way) is a legitimate case; especially if they are raising the right issues.

Post: Property owner class action airBNB lawsuit. All owners can join?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Troy Whitney:

As a side note, all that said I don't want to be too hard on Philly.  In spite of my frustrations with the city government, it's actually been a great place to invest for me.  Two of my properties that I bought in 2014 have doubled in value since I bought them, and I'm seeing a lot of cool things happening to that market.  It appears that a lot of money is moving into Philly.  It's a strong rental market, and even emerging as a minor tech hub.  A lot of people are moving there from NYC and other places.   Almost all of the neighborhoods I've invested in there are going very strong (S. Philly, Brewerytown, Germantown, Mt. Airy and Olde Kensington. are all doing fantastic with strong rents and rising values).    It would be even better if the city government would get itself together. 

 Just curious, did you buy in Philly for cash flow or appreciation? If property doubled in 3 years whats the trick? You didn't strong arm some old lady out of her property did you? :)

Post: Property owner class action airBNB lawsuit. All owners can join?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Troy Whitney:

Mike- Ask any landlord and they will tell you that Philly is just cracking down on everything in an over the top fashion.  But I never broke the law with regard to the lead violations and they were still sending me violation notices.  And that's just one example.  Oh and they wanted to knock down a building that I was trying to purchase through sherrif's sale, and seemed dead-set on it, even though I had just gotten legal control over the building and had contractors in place to make it safe, almost as though the demo contractor had a special relationship with the powers that be. I got notice they were going to bulldoze it one day after I bought it, even though I thought I was doing what I was supposed to do, and had been in constant communication with them.  If you couple stories like this with the fact that it's such a poorly run municipality, you get a lot of frustration on the part of landlords.   I even had a government rep tell me on the phone that yes everyone knows that Philly's government has lots of problems.  I just feel like a lot of times it's an "us -vs- them" when it comes to city authorities (with the business community being the bad guys). It's frustrating if all you are honestly trying to do is do the right thing.  It's like if a cop gives you a ticket for going 1 mph over the speed limit.  Sure - I guess they can but why would they?  Or even giving you a ticket when it was the guy in front of you speeding.  At some point it feels like harassment.   

Anyway - I respect your opinions on this - I'm sure Airbnb has some fault here too.   I honestly don't care that much about it.   With stuff going on in politics and the world at large, any concerns I have about this would take a back seat to about a million other things.  I will definitely use their service if I ever have any properties that it would make sense for.  That's my personal view.

 Sorry to hear about your troubles. Certain areas of Philly may cash flow than some cities I know so it will of course attract outside investors. I notice you are in Seattle. You have to be aware that there are some in Philly who see you as a competitor, so don't expect things to go smoothly always. Not suggesting the city is at fault in your case. I am sure there is a process for making a complaint if you feel you were or are being wronged. 

Post: Airbnb, a threat to short term rentals - hotels, apartments etc?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @John Lim:

I don't know too much about the New York market, but I'd imagine that Airbnb is experiencing a little bit of city pushback. I've definitely used Airbnb while in NYC, but more for leisure as opposed to business travel. 

In New York using a residential property for short term rentals of less than 30 days is illegal. This is bigger than airBNB. There are many businesses in the room booking business, which is what airBNB business model is. Homeaway.com (similar to airBNB) for instance is owned by Expedia Inc. They have to find ways to operate legally within the space.

Post: Airbnb, a threat to short term rentals - hotels, apartments etc?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @John Lim:

Yeah - Airbnb is generating a lot of discussion as to what extent they are actually disrupting the hotel market. I think two things to consider are location and demographics. In Chicago for example, getting a license to operate an Airbnb is pretty costly. The pushback on Airbnb and home-sharing in general is a huge obstacle to a lot of Chicago operators looking to get into the Airbnb market. Despite the significant cost differences between Airbnb and hotels, it seems that the Chicago hotel market is still doing relatively well.  This is true even considering the population shift in Chicago in the last 2-3 years.

I think overall, I think hotels still have the stronghold in the corporate market - I do know that there is a huge pull for Millennials to travel using Airbnb, particularly for leisure. When companies book travel, the default is still to book at a hotel. 

From what I know, Airbnb is trying to step up their professionalization among hosts, especially with those cases that you mentioned. But at least in the foreseeable future, hotels are still pretty standard. 

Its really probability in many ways... if the airBNB host is required to register the residential home being utilized for airBNB with the city or state, obtain a business license to operate a hotel (something which a hotel owner typically does), the probability that the host would prey on clients or evade taxes is very slim or 0. What airBNB doesnt realize (apparently) is that its trying to enable anyone turn their home into a hotel violates local ordinances in many of theses areas that forbid such usage that conflicts with its zoning. The building has to be zoned for a hotel before you can use it for a hotel and you typically don't file a petition to change the zoning of one residential address in a certain subdivision. Thats just strange.