All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Bryan we all hope you're right. It's a tall order going by probabilities. Correct me if I am wrong, but there has never been one fiat currency that lasted longer than 40 years.

The dynamics of our current dollar - the dynamics that have rendered it a fiat currency - have been in place since 1971.

Since it has never worked before. Probabilities suggest it will not work this time. And we're at the 40 year mark. It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out.

Evidence supporting the loss of confidence in the dollar are the countless articles that suggest the dollar will lose its status as the reserve currency. And countless articles about China forming many new direct trade partnerships that do not involve using dollars.

That and you have a University taking delivery of a billion dollars in the form of gold bars. That speaks volumes. It is evidence of 'loss of confidence in the dollar'.

Great posts, Tony

I get about seven.

Absolutely getting started, yes. Now I am sure someone will post here the textbook definition of hyperinflation. However, things have changed since that definition was written. These days the U.S government gets to pick and choose (exclude) what items to track inflation on.

Therefore, I propose it's just as valid to include items that are inflating that the government excludes. Some (silver for example) are hyper-inflating. That will affect the price of a lot of goods soon enough.

College tuition... I wonder if that metric is tracked.

Silver is in hyperinflation as I type this. In Jan of this year it was 27. Tonight it's 45. Real estate experienced hyperinflation from 2003 to 2006. Gas has doubled, or more, in a two year period. Food is up. Gas and good are not hyper, but unpleasant. The hyperinflation (or not) argument is old. However, there is one thing that there is no question about: We are in uncharted/uncertain territory. That and the doom and gloomers are going mainstream

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-16/texas-university-takes-cue-from-kyle-bass-to-hold-1-billion-in-gold-bars.html

It is what it is, and there are valid points on all sides, including the "We're in recovery" side.

Stagflation makes more sense to me actually.
Laid off auto workers and ex walmart employess are not going to alluva sudden become Google programmers. Standard of living will not be great for many for a while. Employees will work for less dollars. Those dollars will not be able to purchase as much as they used to for a while. The job market is not a fun place to be in at the moment. Regardless of what CNBC says.

I just looked up the source for that. It was nothing but a rumor in started in a comments thread on yahoo finance. Basically an anonymous poster is claiming he was paid 70% over spot because SLV could not deliver.

Given the context I do not lend much credence to that statement.

However, there endless articles on sites like zerohedge.com about price suppression through comex, and the likely hood of a comex default if physical was requested for enough contracts. These are opinions of many including the leader of Gata. I believe Jim Rogers and also Peter Schiff.

Another way to look at is this: Last week, why would Texas University take delivery of 1 billion in gold bars when they could just hold GLD ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-16/texas-university-takes-cue-from-kyle-bass-to-hold-1-billion-in-gold-bars.html

Answer: According to zerohedge TU firmly believes comex can't deliver.

If any of your clients decide to take PHYSICAL delivery please report their experience to us. If it's for fun trading those ETFs seem solid.

If it is really a safety play the general consensus in the gold communities is that like fractional reserve banking those ETFs will have trouble if enough people request delivery. There are already rumors floating around about SLV payouts way over the spot price because large investors wanted physical delivery and the ETF could not deliver the physical metal.

For speculation yes. For security, if you can't hold it you don't own it.

I am not sure where you are getting "everyone of you thinks now is the time to buy." I am not buying now. I believe summer could be a good time to buy.

Either way, yes, if you believe shorting is the way to go no one is advising you differently. I am just saying I am not shorting. You could certainly do well on your short.

I won't short gold over the next few months. When everyone - the media, stockbrokers, the public etc... - is talking about how great of an investment gold is I will sell. Right now too many people are calling a top. That and most signs at coin shops and jewelers read "We buy gold". I am looking for the signs to read "We sell gold" and for the general public perception that "gold will never stop going up".

Correct me if I am wrong but wasn't the long lines at coin shops in the early 80s composed of people standing in line to "buy" gold. And not to "sell" their gold? If that's the case we're not there yet. And the drivers to buy gold are bigger this time around.

I am using the real estate bubble model. If gold was real estate, it feels like we are in early to mid 2004. Think of late 2005/2006. Anyone in the mainstream talking about a "real estate crash" was touted as crazy. That is my equivalent sell signal for gold.

Silver on the other hand has been suppressed so much that it may rise all the way to a 20:1 ratio to gold before correcting a bit. The parabolic rise is scary. I wouldn't buy now. A dollar a day rise can't go on forever. There will be some short *probably big* pullback coming soon.

If you want to play with paper gold and silver promises you can purchase the "SLV" and "GLD" ETFs through any online brokerage. However, if you're in it just to trade you'd be "chasing" at this point. Silver is practically parabolic over the last six weeks. Though Gold has been pretty steady on its ascension.

There is the option of waiting until June. The Fed may create the perception that QE will end. Perhaps it will for a bit. And summer is seasonally lower for the metals as well. You "might" be able to get it sale with those two factors.

I am still long term bullish on both. So if it does drop this summer I would consider it a summer sale. But not the end of the precious metals bull IMO. Though it does appear the parabolic phase of the bubble is getting closer.

As of today you'd be buying gold at all time highs and silver and it's highest since 1981 when the market was cornered.

However, I read about a good stock buy today from Stewart Thomson. I respect this guy's opinion even though he is kind of crazy :) (like many gold bugs).

However, he's an ex banker, a good trader from what I've seen and his advice has been spot on for a while. He is recommending GDX in his latest article on goldseek

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1303226348.php