All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

I went with precious metals a couple years ago. I like that they are currencies among central bankers. That and I continue to pick up few food items that have an long shelf life each time I am grocery shopping. Going by the inflation adjusted high for gold, $2400.00 and silver, $133.00 we may have room to go. Two years ago the consensus in the mainstream was that people "buying" precious metals are "crazy". That consensus holds true to this day. I take that as one sign that it's not yet too late to buy metals yet. But that consensus is changing. Once the mainstream consensus is "those to do not buy precious metals, or those who sell precious metals are "crazy", It's probalbly too late.

We're not there yet, but closer. Watching silver and gold spike up during Bernanke's press conference today is telling. The metals may get bubbly very soon.

There may be other commodity plays that are more undervalued and have a lot of upside. Natural Gas, certain agriculture plays, water purification companies.

Obviously real estate!

My first inclination was to say no. However, I think it depends upon the club's agenda.

The clubs here are pitch fests. The speakers are informative but information is in support of the agenda, which is to sell you their product. So ultimately these clubs are either famously overt pitch fests or clever pitch fests in disguise. That said, you also get to meet liked minded people. Newbies get their faces out there and they receive some education. So with an agenda of education and networking it seems OK for speakers to market their products.

If the pitch fest clubs were branded as mastermind groups then I vote "No". However, If the clubs were mastermind groups why would they let newbies who bring nothing to the table in?

Another great post, Tony!

I couldn't agree more here. In addition to "prepare accordingly" you're are more likely in a position to benefit from the transfer of wealth that is happening before our eyes (whether we like it or not.)

Thousands of years of history bring to light the choice for the U.S: Debase (the currency) or Default. It's a historic theme that has happened repeatedly for centuries.

We can pull out all the modern day stats and Ivy League Keynesian theory articles we want. There is just too much consistency in history cycles to believe this time is different.

Ironically, I too am an optimist. However, at times initially judged as a pessimist when it is known that I currently advocate precious metals. Nothing could be further from the truth.

You might have me there Rich! It's not a gut feeling and it's not "solid" research. That statement was based on a long silver chart - I believe a 10 year chart - which suggests there has been a numerous 25% to 35% corrections from crazy silver spikes.

The last several weeks qualifies as a "crazy silver spike" IMHO. So from $50 that would take us down to the mid, and maybe even low 30s. But that certainly is not "solid" research. Thanks for asking and making me clarify.

It's fascinating stuff. I feel the same. I've been in for a while. A skilled "or lucky" trader may do well and make $$$$ shorting the next big dip. It will happen soon (I hope).

My point, which sounds like yours, is that it's a dip on an uptrend...There are too many fundamentals in place that support metals going up for the next few years. Or at least until Dec 21 2012, which is the end of the world according to the Mayan calendar. :wink: Dec 22 2012 might be a great sell day :lol:

The inflation adjusted high is somewhere close to $130.00 silver. For gold it's around $2400.00.

Compared to the late 70s/early 80s spike we have less metal and many more large players, e.g. the BRICs.

During periods of questionable paper currency the maxim among central bankers seems to become, "He who owns the gold makes the rules"... or something like that. I don't see why central bankers are going to become sellers of metal in the next few months. Then there is the part about how the public is still not completely in it yet. Although awareness is up for sure now, finally.

I am not shorting at $50. But I would not be surprised to see silver go on sale soon. Perhaps down to $32.00 an OZ. I consider that a nice buying opportunity.

Shorting on a parabolic spike sounds dangerous. Part of the recent spike might be huge shorts getting squeezed out at this time. That and Chinese buying.

However you never know. Bernanke is doing a press conference on Wednesday. The phrase "buy the rumor sell the news" just might fit here.

Long term the trend is still up, IMHO

Tony it appears we think a like on many levels. We appear to have similar real estate acquisition strategies as well.

I will check out that article later today. Thanks

That could be part of the reason. However, in this specific time period we're in I tend to lend more credence to sites like zerohedge over CNBC when it comes to precious metals.

In fact in early 09 when TU started buying at $950, the consensus on CNBC would have been "You're crazy." I certainly don't believe you'll hear CNBC talking about a potential comex default - YET. At this time anyone talking about a potential comex default on CNBC would also get a "You're Crazy"

If it's on CNBC it's too late.

I am waiting for the CNBC mainstream talking heads to be bullish on gold. Once the consensus from CNBC is, "Anyone NOT buying physical gold and silver is crazy" . That will be part of my sell signal.

First, I don't think a currency crash is an apocalyptic, mad max, end of the world event. It's already happened in the U.S. before with "Continental Script". The transition over to the Euro wasn't the end of the world. Germany is now leading Europe after Wiemar.

As for me protecting myself, I am not doing too much. I don't see a currency crash as the end of the world so I have some precious metals. I have some food that has a long shelf life (I am in earthquake country so that is a must anyway). Water. Not much more than that.

A currency crash doesn't have to = mad max.

I think there are good arguments of why it "could" happen right here in this thread. Just as there are good arguments of why it "could not happen". No one - except for you - knows "for sure" either way :)

My argument, that there has never been a fiat currency that hasn't collapsed roughly every 40 years - in over 5000 years - lends the "probabilities" argument some credence *in my opinion*.

Anything resembling a "but this time it's different" - argument after 5000+ years of history - is going to be hard to believe for some.