Another great post. I lot of good points.
Originally posted by jaham:
Gold, commodities and the stock market will selloff around the June ending of QE2.
I may disagree on this one, but only from a trading point of view. I think it could be more of a "buy the rumor sell the news" thing. So by the time June hits the sell off will already be factored into the market and we may actually see a bump up. But I could totally be wrong. I am pulling that one out of thin air.
As far as Bernanke "Doing the right thing" I disagree. If only because he's been wrong on just about every call he's made. His track record doesn't lend much credence to the statement that he will time things correctly this time.
The US is not China 15 years ago. The US is now the largest debtor nation in the entire history of the world. It will be interesting to see how we get out of this and keep our reserve currency status.
However I don't think it's going to be the end of the world if the dollar loses its status. And my favorite comment in your post is this one:
"The gold bugs doom and gloom and fiat currency talk is blown way out of proportion, but that doesn't mean we can't profit from the hysteria."
A quick look at cycles will tell you the gold bugs get their way for a brief period of time, in an explosive fashion, every 30-40 years. So yes, there are certainly profits to be made. And if there is a summer sell off I consider it a sale, not the end of the trend yet.
I wholeheartedly agree on stagflation being the real threat.