@Zachary Stanley The #1 driver of real estate prices is population growth, the #1 driver of population growth is jobs, which is why you probably always hear people touting Walmart, Tyson, JB Hunt, and University of Arkansas. The diversity of these industries also provides stability that you don’t see in other markets. In my opinion, NWA may not be completely insulated from a housing market downturn, but fundamentally much better off than a tech, leisure, or energy focused market.
I don’t have accurate data on this next point (I’m curious if some of you NWA realtors have it @Ryan Blackstone), but one thing that stands out to me is the percentage of homes purchased by investors seems to be relatively high compared to other cities. I’d be interested to see how NWA compares to cities like Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Jacksonville, and Phoenix, where roughly 30% of homes are being scooped up by investors. Although it increases home prices drastically, it seems to be keeping rental prices subdued (still rising, just not at the pace of other areas) due to the competition. If investors start backing out you may see home prices soften.
Sprawling has been picking up rapidly in NWA over the past decade and it will be interesting to see if city planning can keep up with transportation development as the area grows. Rural/suburban areas like Centerton, Cave Springs, Elm Springs, and Farmington are showing massive growth, but it is yet to be seen whether its haphazard development or sustainable planned growth. Will big business investment grow to these areas or will they remain commuter towns? This goes back population growth and jobs… if you see more business investment in these areas, the fear of a bubble should subside.
Another potential concern is homeowners that have gained insane equity over the last 3-5 years have been trading up for new construction or more space, but keeping their property as a rental. This is restricting supply and driving up purchase prices. These individuals that weren’t cut out to be landlords may begin to sell those properties over the coming years, which may increase supply. Also, they may get nervous and want to cash-in on their equity if a recession hits.
That’s just a couple of my observations/opinions on the area, but I’d love to keep this conversation going and get some more perspectives as NWA will be my primary investment focus in the coming years.