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All Forum Posts by: Kathleen McDowell

Kathleen McDowell has started 10 posts and replied 58 times.

Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @Kathleen McDowell:

Hi Mike.  As an investor, you're wise to be keeping an eye on home price forecasts. As a REALTOR and investor in Phoenix. I can tell you, prices are still increasing, and thanks to record low interest rates for the last few years, many people's payments are lower than they were previously. Rents are increasing, which will be challenging for folks. In these instances, I tell my investor clients to focus more on A and B neighborhoods.  These folks tend to have salary increases along with the cost of living. This is one way to manage your investment risk.

It's important to digest balanced data as when things change, the media tends to use eye catching headlines meant to strike fear in readers. Keep in mind the data shows that there are NO similarities between this market and 2007. At most, in Phoenix we are seeing cooling, with homes no longer selling in a few days, but instead a few weeks - which is perfectly normal.  30-45 days is a normal sales cycle. What we experienced in the last few years was not. We're simply seeing a return to normalcy.

Supply is low now not high like it was 2007. We don't anticipate this changing for a while as new home build are decades behind and in Phoenix in particular, we are still seeing strong inbound migration.

I have reviewed a lot of data and believe the BOTTOM line is:

Homes are more affordable today than in 2007. 

We are in a cooling market, but are NOT headed for a crash. 

Although interest rates are on the rise, they are still not as high as they were in the 80s, 90s or 20s. 

If you hold your real estate for 10 years or more, historically you would have always made money.



@Kathleen McDowell:

Your Comment: "Homes are more affordable today than in 2007"

I have not heard that from any other source. Can you point me to where you saw that? 

Anyway, Your Comment: "I can tell you, prices are still increasing" 

I guess we have very different sources for our information. Redfin says the following: 1 in 3 homes reduced in last 30 days  I don't know how to control the image size so it is larger than intended but here are the facts for June 30 2022


Excellent point Mike. I was actually speaking to appreciation, the increase in home values and prices month on month and year on year. I see you are highlighting the recent price reductions. 

About 18% of properties in Maricopa Co are dropping their list price (compared to about 7% in previous 2 years).  In my opinion, this is because the agent has not priced ahead of the market. This is a KEY component of a successful pricing strategy. Before April when the market started shifting, I was setting list price about 5% above the most recent comps, knowing that it was the direction the market was heading and by the time we were closed it would reach that value. Same for my buyers - offering slightly above market value so they didn't lose out on a home by $5k that would be worth $10k more by COE.  In today's market, homes should be priced to reflect the current shift.

I see the market cooling, not crashing. The millennial generation is the largest cohort the US has ever seen, and they (along with Gen Z) are now at home buying age. And as rents go up, their desire to purchase does too. I don't see demand slowing anytime soon, which should keep home prices stable. 

These ARMLS stats are lagged by a month, but still show price appreciation in Maricopa County April to May ($285 to $290 per sq ft).  To your point, need to see what June's number show us is happening over the last 30 days especially given the price reductions you mentioned..watch this space. 

Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @Kathleen McDowell:

Hi Mike.  As an investor, you're wise to be keeping an eye on home price forecasts. As a REALTOR and investor in Phoenix. I can tell you, prices are still increasing, and thanks to record low interest rates for the last few years, many people's payments are lower than they were previously. Rents are increasing, which will be challenging for folks. In these instances, I tell my investor clients to focus more on A and B neighborhoods.  These folks tend to have salary increases along with the cost of living. This is one way to manage your investment risk.

It's important to digest balanced data as when things change, the media tends to use eye catching headlines meant to strike fear in readers. Keep in mind the data shows that there are NO similarities between this market and 2007. At most, in Phoenix we are seeing cooling, with homes no longer selling in a few days, but instead a few weeks - which is perfectly normal.  30-45 days is a normal sales cycle. What we experienced in the last few years was not. We're simply seeing a return to normalcy.

Supply is low now not high like it was 2007. We don't anticipate this changing for a while as new home build are decades behind and in Phoenix in particular, we are still seeing strong inbound migration.

I have reviewed a lot of data and believe the BOTTOM line is:

Homes are more affordable today than in 2007. 

We are in a cooling market, but are NOT headed for a crash. 

Although interest rates are on the rise, they are still not as high as they were in the 80s, 90s or 20s. 

If you hold your real estate for 10 years or more, historically you would have always made money.



@Kathleen McDowell:

Your Comment: "Homes are more affordable today than in 2007"

I have not heard that from any other source. Can you point me to where you saw that? 

Anyway, Your Comment: "I can tell you, prices are still increasing" 

I guess we have very different sources for our information. Redfin says the following: 1 in 3 homes reduced in last 30 days  I don't know how to control the image size so it is larger than intended but here are the facts for June 30 2022


Post: Advice for selling SFH for cash

Kathleen McDowellPosted
  • Realtor
  • Scottsdale, AZ
  • Posts 64
  • Votes 49

Hi Jamal, by cash offer, I am assuming you mean off market to a wholesaler that has contacted you and made an offer.  Do know that this approach comes with a lot of risks, as many wholesalers will get you under contract and back out if they cant wholesale the deal for a higher price. They will always offer you a price below market value to allow them to sell it at a higher price. Same if they are going to flip it, they will offer a lower than market price in order to improve their margin.

If you want to do your own research on pricing, property records often reveal a lot as well so if you know of similar homes that recently sold off market.

You can also consider listing the property. I have sold a lot of homes recently for investors who were ready to retire their portfolios and did not want to mess with repairs due to expense or location (many were out of state investors).  I found it very easy to reach out through my network to find reputable companies willing to buy as is for cash, and they often pay seller's closing costs. Hiring a realtor for this is key as they can look out for your rights and will be able to navigate working with prospective buyers and weed out disreputable wholesalers if need be.  The most important thing they can do for you is give you an ACCURATE VALUE of your home so you can set an appropriate list price to sell your house quickly and maximize your return. They have access to data, and local experience to complete a thorough pricing strategy. Those that worry about paying commission have yet to realize that your realtor can usually net you more in the end through commanding a higher list price. If you need a recommendation for a great realtor in your area, let me know.

Best of luck!

Quote from @Rebekah Hitt:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Quote from @Mike Gordon:

Flood zone, a pool, and foundation cracks. I looked at one house with a really bad animal smell and passed because all of the flooring would have had to be replaced and the house repainted.


 See, that's funny. I see the same house and I think money. In fact, I bought a house once years ago I still call the "cat piss house". The smell was so bad when you went in it would be like an instant asthma attack. But I got it really cheap, and I factored in the idea of tearing all floors and bottom half of walls out to solve the problem. In reality, my flooring contractor (all hardwood floors) was able to sand the smell out of it - and let me tell you, you've never smelled anything like freshly sanded cat piss - and 98% of the stains, and put down 3 nice thick coats of polyurethane, and the smell was completely gone at the end and never came back. 

That's called the "smell of money" according to my real estate colleagues..... I thought the same thing....that is a recipe for equity!

 Same here.  You smell cat pee, I smell opportunity!

I'm going to address this from a non fix and flip perspective. If I don't plan to fix it up - functional obsolesce (such as bedrooms that can only be accessed through other bedrooms) is a hard pass for me.  Funnily, if I plan to fix it up and flip or hold then I LOVE functional obsolesce, because I have the opportunity to fix it (like adding a hallway) and easily increase the value.

If I am looking at an STR opportunity in Scottsdale AZ, anything less than 4 bedrooms is a hard pass for me because that market caters to large groups. So each market should have a hard pass number specific to them.

Flood zones are a hard pass for me.

Fronting to a busy street is a hard pass. Backing to a busy street is not automatic. Many times a water feature can drown the noise and renters don't care as much as home owners.

Crappy neighbors with unsightly, unkempt houses.  They are likely to stay forever and decrease property value.

Post: Advice on out of state investment

Kathleen McDowellPosted
  • Realtor
  • Scottsdale, AZ
  • Posts 64
  • Votes 49

Hi Kenneth.  Congrats on selecting Phoenix as an investment market! Phoenix is a great market with strong job growth and inbound migration - both fantastic for investors! I live in work here and love the amount of opportunity.

You're wise to wonder what you may be missing given this opportunity is 30-40k below market comps.  Since you mentioned the property is in Phoenix, I'm going to guess $30-40k is about 5% of the market price.  I would suggest asking your agent the story behind the sale. Is the current owner wanting to do a 1031? Sometimes that can squeeze them on timing and make them price to sell!  It often helps to understand the seller's motives.

I would be sure to read the HOA docs paying keen attention to:

1. Any upcoming assessments (a large one could prompt a seller to sell quickly at a discount) and any restrictions on rentals such as lease duration. 

2. Make sure there are no restrictions that will impact your rental forecasts.  

3. Be sure to review the financials and ensure the HOA is in good financial position.

4. Some townhomes also do NOT cover roofs so be sure to be clear on that.

A few other things to consider:

- Not sure what your cash flow projections are, but I advise my investors to build forecasts on max appreciation of 3.5% and rental appreciation of 2.5% - if it works on the conservative numbers, then you're good as PHX has seen ~25% appreciation and 16% rental increases the last year, but things are cooling. 

- In Phoenix most property managers charge ~8% so as an out of state investor, be sure to budget for that as well.

Best of luck to you in your real estate investing! 

Best,

Kathleen

Hi Mike.  As an investor, you're wise to be keeping an eye on home price forecasts. As a REALTOR and investor in Phoenix. I can tell you, prices are still increasing, and thanks to record low interest rates for the last few years, many people's payments are lower than they were previously. Rents are increasing, which will be challenging for folks. In these instances, I tell my investor clients to focus more on A and B neighborhoods.  These folks tend to have salary increases along with the cost of living. This is one way to manage your investment risk.

It's important to digest balanced data as when things change, the media tends to use eye catching headlines meant to strike fear in readers. Keep in mind the data shows that there are NO similarities between this market and 2007. At most, in Phoenix we are seeing cooling, with homes no longer selling in a few days, but instead a few weeks - which is perfectly normal.  30-45 days is a normal sales cycle. What we experienced in the last few years was not. We're simply seeing a return to normalcy.

Supply is low now not high like it was 2007. We don't anticipate this changing for a while as new home build are decades behind and in Phoenix in particular, we are still seeing strong inbound migration.

Credit quality is good, thanks to tightened lending standards.

Foreclosures are low now, vs high in 2007. 

Homes are more affordable than they were in 2007, thanks to record low rates.

I have reviewed a lot of data and believe the BOTTOM line is:

Homes are more affordable today than in 2007. 

We are in a cooling market, but are NOT headed for a crash. 

Although interest rates are on the rise, they are still not as high as they were in the 80s, 90s or 20s. 

If you hold your real estate for 10 years or more, historically you would have always made money.

Post: Real Estate Mentor has me suspicious

Kathleen McDowellPosted
  • Realtor
  • Scottsdale, AZ
  • Posts 64
  • Votes 49

Hi Joshua. I am sorry this happened to you. Follow your instincts - as they are good.  A mentor is an experienced and trusted advisor - someone who share's their experience with you so you can grow. They should not be bringing you deals.  And you often don't need to pay a mentor. In many cases, people will mentor you in order to have support - as an extra pair of hands can help their business grow as well.

It sounds to me like what your 'mento'r is doing is wholesaling.  Although wholesaling is legal, many states are adding more regulations to the process to increase transparency for buyers and sellers.

From what you have said, this company does not seem reputable or trustworthy. I would cease doing business with them and use the BP network to see if there is someone you can partner with to show you the ropes of finding off market properties.  

I would also suggest using the MLS to find ON MARKET properties. The market is shifting now, and many buyers are hesitating. Good investment deals can still be found on the market. I suggest finding an investor friendly REALTOR in the area you'd like to invest. Realtors are fiduciaries which means they are duty bound to put your best interest first. It's best if you select a realtor who owns rental properties - they'll have the tools to help you estimate cash flow and key indicators such as ROI. And the best part is in most cases, REALTORS are FREE for buyers. Reach out to me direct if you'd like me to recommend a realtor in your preferred area.

Best of luck as you start up your real estate business.

Kathleen

Hi Jane.  I can understand your frustration with the situation. However, your broker is correct and is protecting the brokerage as well you. All material items must be disclosed, and given the buyer canceled due to the report, we must assume there were items contained material to the transaction. Irregardless of who paid for the report, it must be disclosed. Non-disclosure is the biggest cause of real estate violations, fines and law suits, so you'll want to take care to disclose.

I suggest the following:

1. Make all material repairs (in the future you may want to pay for an inspection prior to selling. For all my investment properties, I do this in advance to ensure I'm aware of all items. It always pays for itself in the end).

2. One option is to outline what you consider material errors in the report and document them, asking the inspector to correct the errors and provide an updated report. Another option is to leave the errors if they are not material, and just rather 'sloppy' and write a response to the report to attach for prospective buyers. It could be good for them to see the more unprofessional report, as it may indicate lack of credibility.

3.  Get an inspector with a great reputation (ask your agent and do your own research too). Provide both reports to prospective buyers, with an attachment documenting the items that have now been addressed. 

4. I don't recommend finding a new broker, as they will follow the same procedures in terms of disclosure. But if you do want to select a new one, yes you can on occasion work with your broker to come to an agreement to part ways.  You will need to document your expectation and how your needs were not met. In my opinion, the reason would need to be more than not disclosing the report in order for them to consider releasing you as they have invested time and likely money as well.
 

Well done on passing on the lower quality rental tenants - I have found vacancy is cheaper than a bad tenant every time (damages/eviction/etc.)

On your question about listing it as a flip - you can note that property is being sold as-is, but the downside is some people will think this equates to big investment and you may not sell at your optimal price. Have you looked into working with a wholesaler to sell it off the MLS? Due to the low supply at present, I have found wholesalers particularly eager to obtain properties.

Although we are experiencing a market shift at the moment, we're really only seeing properties sit a few weeks longer on the MLS (remember 30-45 days was typical before 2022). So try not to get discouraged if it's not selling quickly. If you proactively make repairs, you'll likely find a buyer on market who places value on a home where they don't need to make repairs in an environment with labor shortages and price increases on supplies.

Best of luck.

Post: STR in Mountains of Arizona

Kathleen McDowellPosted
  • Realtor
  • Scottsdale, AZ
  • Posts 64
  • Votes 49

Investment Info:

Single-family residence buy & hold investment.

Purchase price: $450,000
Cash invested: $90,000

Bought a second home in the mountains of AZ to STR as its 3 hrs from cities like Phoenix and Tucson where people want to get out of the heat in the summer and ski in the winter. Property does not cash flow, it breaks even. We enjoy using the property as a second home so are ok with it breaking even. It has appreciated 13% in value in the first 9 months of owning it. 19% ROI.

What made you interested in investing in this type of deal?

Having a holiday home that would be paid off by STR tenants!

How did you find this deal and how did you negotiate it?

Negotiated the deal by making a quick offer, beating out the competition.

How did you finance this deal?

2.6% 30 year mortgage.

How did you add value to the deal?

Completely redesigned the home - all cosmetic fixes - new floors, paint, etc.

What was the outcome?

19% ROI

Lessons learned? Challenges?

The home was sold furnished. Upon closer inspection, 95% of the furniture was not useable for STRs. We had to upgrade a great deal of the furnishings. In future, I would do walkthrough myself instead of using local agent in my brokerage on video. You miss a lot on video!