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All Forum Posts by: Jeff Warner

Jeff Warner has started 19 posts and replied 483 times.

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178
Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
To me much of this anger toward The Fed and distrust of our monetary policy is misplaced. That same energy should be aimed squarely at Congress instead.

As you know we have a major battle on our hands Bryan. I don't feel we have the luxury of picking only one battle, such as Congress. I'm fired up and have plenty of energy in me to fight these thieves on every issue.

IMO, the key is for the American people to get educated. I feel we are awake but I still think there is a lack of education in this country when it comes to money, the Fed, the constitution, etc.

Jeff

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178
Originally posted by Paul Broni:
Originally posted by Jeff And Cheray Warner:
Originally posted by Paul Broni:
Originally posted by Jeff And Cheray Warner:
Another point that came to mind on this topic, how many people know that the Treasury issued bonds that were purchased by the Fed? Why do you think our govt. bought bonds from itself? Maybe because they couldn't find any real buyers?

Over $500 billion worth of Treasury bonds trade each and every day. I don't think the Fed alone would be capable of manipulating this market to the extent that you're suggesting. There are plenty of buyers for Treasurys. Granted, the Fed's actions do drive up prices by artificially stimulating demand, but as you know that is precisely the goal.

Then explain this Paul:

http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-03-22/business/17214641_1_funds-rate-short-term-interest-rates-treasury

Jeff

Not sure what you're attempting to prove or what I'm supposed to explain. There's nothing in the article -- at least from what I saw -- that suggests the ONLY buyer for Treasurys is the Fed.

Perhaps I misunderstood your comment Paul. You said:

"I don't think the Fed alone would be capable of manipulating this market to the extent that you're suggesting."

I took that to mean that you were unaware that the Fed really did buy long term bonds from the Treasury. That article is just one example that the Fed did just that. I didn't mean the Fed is the ONLY buyer, I know the Treasury sells to investors, other countries, etc. BUT the fact that we are buying from ourselves on a long term basis is a major cause for concern.

Jeff

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178
Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
Jeff...hundreds of years in THIS country...not in other countries.

No real buyers for the paper does not mean that we will have hyperinflation either. LIes, deceit, bad policy...check. Hyperinflation....no.

Are you telling me that you find no similarity with what is going on right now to what happened in Germany in the 20's?

Jeff

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178
Originally posted by Paul Broni:
Originally posted by Jeff And Cheray Warner:
Another point that came to mind on this topic, how many people know that the Treasury issued bonds that were purchased by the Fed? Why do you think our govt. bought bonds from itself? Maybe because they couldn't find any real buyers?

Over $500 billion worth of Treasury bonds trade each and every day. I don't think the Fed alone would be capable of manipulating this market to the extent that you're suggesting. There are plenty of buyers for Treasurys. Granted, the Fed's actions do drive up prices by artificially stimulating demand, but as you know that is precisely the goal.

Then explain this Paul:

http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-03-22/business/17214641_1_funds-rate-short-term-interest-rates-treasury

Jeff

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178

Here is good clip, short and too the point:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mM3_z2RB3YU&feature=fvw

Another point that came to mind on this topic, how many people know that the Treasury issued bonds that were purchased by the Fed? Why do you think our govt. bought bonds from itself? Maybe because they couldn't find any real buyers?

Jeff

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178
Originally posted by Andrew Evans:
Inflation is a normal occurance and doesnt imply that hyperinflation will follow (bryan's wheelbarrow example).
Of course anything denominated in USD is going up as the world is competing for resources and can buy more for less as the usd goes down and this causes the price to go up in usd.
naturally anything with metal in it will be more expensive. However if you guys can afford it then it will continue up. when you cant afford it and stop buying it, it will come down.
hyperinflation is not a worry in my opinion.
The boom and bust cycle is far more of a worry.

Small amounts of inflation are normal, costs going up 40% in 1 year is NOT normal. Re-read my post.

Jeff

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178
Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
I don't have data to support how quickly we would go from regular inflation to hyperinflation, but I also have no evidence to support the fact that this will happen. What leads you to believe that it will?

Hyperinflation is a very serious phenomenon and I don't see why everyone feels that it will happen here. I am perfectly willing to listen to credible arguments that it will. Since it hasn't happened in hundreds of years I think the burden of proof should be on the people that think it will to tell us their reasoning.

Hundreds of years? You are way off on that one Bryan. Try 9 times in the last 100 years. As a matter of fact, it just happened in Zimbabwe where they have something like 95% unemployment.

Here is the data you must be missing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jt15F21jpN8

How about this one:

http://www.mint.com/blog/finance-core/hyperinflation-the-story-of-9-failed-currencies/

I think these links prove my point, if not I'd be happy to put up more. There are books written on the topic of Fiat Currency and how it has failed in every country that has tried it. Fiat Currency is not all bad, in fact with fiscal responsibility it can be good...as long as the govt. doesn't go on a printing spree to pay for our debts like they are doing now.

Jeff

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178
Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
That is fine...elevated prices do not a hyper inflationary environment make. Where is this data?

If there is some out there I would love to see it so that I can prepare.

Bryan,

Doesn't it make sense that Inflation would take place before Hyper Inflation? I don't think we would go from OK to Hyper Inflation over night.

I have a friend that tracks grocery store bills and has for the last 2 years or so. She told me that butter (bulk at Costco) has gone up $3.00 in the last year.

I manufacture fishing tackle and I have noticed HUGE increases in raw materials. In fact, the increase for my product has been so big in the last 6 months that the only way I can be competitive is to buy in larger quantities so I can at least get a bulk discount.

You can't tell me you haven't noticed higher prices at the grocery store.

Jeff

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178
Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
I'm not sure that we are disagreeing on much. Possibly the magnitude of the recovery and how to feel about it.

Here is a site that charts THE REAL unemployment rate and inflation rate:

Shadowstats

I know all about U6 unemployment and the gov-mint's attempt to manipulate the data. I am concerned too and the recession has had a lasting impact on my psyche.

HOWEVER, videos like this one and the hyper partisanship are not healthy. What is strange is that these beliefs have become mainstream lately and they manifest themselves on this board every day. Instead of having reasoned debate we end up arguing about whether or not something has to be expressly stated in The Constitution or some such.

It gets old...and detracts from the discourse.

I hear what your saying. I can have reasonable debate without arguing.

As far as the economy goes, I'm just planning as though the worst is still ahead. That doesn't stop me or slow me down though. With my business, I'm going full speed ahead adding new products and accounts as fast as I can as though everything is fine. I'm just not going into debt, even though some say that's the way to go I choose to own everything outright. And instead of hoarding cash, I roll it into inventory and assets so that even if there was hyper-inflation I should be stocked up for 6 months or a year and not be affected by it (unless it lasted longer then that =) )

I don't know what Andrew is talking about because I don't see the misery and depression, I see people ready to buy a flat screen TV and a new laptop on payday even though they can't afford it. The crazy thing about the state of Oregon is that those same people are eligible for food stamps and "partial un-employment".

One thing is for sure, the next 12 months will be interesting. I avoid going into a panic because I have faith that God, not Obama is in control.

Jeff

Post: The Day The Dollar Died

Jeff WarnerPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • North Central Arkansas
  • Posts 509
  • Votes 178
Originally posted by Tom Cullen:
Jeff,

In the People's Republic of Hawaii, if the employee works 20 hours or more a week, you also have to pay for their medical insurance. And it's going to get worse with our new governor who is an old friend of Obama's radical parents at the University of Hawaii back in the mid 70s. . But I don't want to interject politics on this forum.

TC

Wow, that's crazy Tom. Something has to be done if we are going to create jobs in this country. People that create laws like that have never ran a business of any kind.

Jeff