@Account Closed , I wish I had the details, but it was just a loan I was peeking at over a colleague's shoulder. I'm used to low cap rates in prime neighborhoods in SF - like 4% low.. but 2.5%? Caught my ear..
I think the buyer intends to owner-occupy one both of the units in the future, so I think it was just a matter of getting it early before waiting to see what prices are in 5 years.. Plus, I think the cap is less meaningful for duplexes, especially for a potential owner-occupied place, like you see more often in SF than in Vegas I think.. So I think that's another thing that throws the numbers out of whack..But I have seen quite a few 4% cap rates on MF in strong neighborhoods..
@Jeff J. , I also have a small, speculative portion of my investment portfolio - right now, it is all tied up in bitcoins, litecoins, peercoins, terracoins, and feathercoins (cryptocurrencies). Was up over 100%. Then a bit negative. Now back in the green.. Wildly speculative. But to your point comparing to RE price appreciation, given historical price volatility and expected volatility (if we were estimating a beta on the volatility of these assets, to say, the S&P 500), I think our bitcoin and uranium-mining investments would produce low risk-adjusted returns relative to the phenomenal ROE prime SF investors have made investing at this cap rate with little volatility in price, except steadily upwards..