All Forum Posts by: J. Martin

 Hi Avi,
Just took care of you.
Looking forward to seeing you in a couple weekends!

@Will Barnard, looking forward to it!! Probably only a few guys like @Jay Hinrichs on BP have made over $1MM on one deal..  We're lucky to have both of them out. I'll introduce you @Alice K. :) 

@Metra Ulloa, welcome up from Gilroy! Yes, I recommend getting to whatever meetups you can, but especially @Shane Pearlman's in SC, Jeff Pollack's in San Jose, and @Johnson H.'s in Milpitas. 

@Al Williamson, @Chris Clothier and I crossed our dates on our conferences, and he's going to be out in Houston leading a group there. But maybe he can still make it Sunday...? Chris, I was thinking maybe we could each set up an ipad with a Skype Video connection in each of our conferences, and investors could see what's going on and chat with each other or something. The BP community connected across the country.. Just an idea ;) We're missing you this year! Will coordinate on dates better next time :)

@Tony Xu, 
Welcome to the party! :)  It's a great group of folks. And we'll send out more info shortly.. 
Reserve friday, sat, & sun night for drinking if you can handle it all! :) You won't have far to come from San Francisco, so hope to see you for all of them!

 I see what you're saying Rich. 
I think what you're referring to is the magnitude of price reversions in the next recession. Without a lot of "irrational exuberance" from the market, there is less risk on the downside - although a lack of exuberance will not prevent a recession from taking place. 

My only slight difference in observation here is that people SAY there's risk and it's too expensive. BUT their ACTIONS tell another story. Prices are still going up (in the San Francisco Bay). Lots of new folks getting into the game. Still lots of home buyers in the Bay settling for what they can get into contract too, even if it doesn't meet their requirements, and it's $300K over list.. 

I wouldn't call it a "healthy" market in the SF Bay. (An agent might, because prices are going up.) 
But there is a growing lack of affordability, even across most Bay Area counties that have tended to be more affordable. 
As that lack of affordability across counties tends to converge, it seems to be a sign that there is thinner and thinner support left in the market, as prices continue increasing..  causing some rent and price risk after over 5 years of double-digit price increases.. IMHO

"Way too many people are hoping or waiting for the next recession and when that is the case it just not going to happen."

Rich, recessions are a natural part of the economic landscape. Take a look at this graph for the past 70 years. 
Whether or not investors know there is a recession in the future does not prevent it from taking place. (the grey vertical lines are recessions.)

As @Account Closed likes to say,

"History doesn't always repeat itself. But it rhymes."

"I think I should now start accumulating some extra cash for the rough times :)"
- Sandeep

“Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it's imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do. ...be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves..."

- Warren Buffet, 2017 Berkshire Letter

I think I'm going to be a little more flexible where I look for and take advantage of those dark skies the next time around. But good to have those washtubs available ;)  As Minh said it, letting the market tell you what it wants ;)

4-pack of tickets is $100 off still!

Tagging some folks that said they wanted to come out. Team up with these other investors who want to go or get your ticket now at www.sfbaysummit.com

@Andrew Fingado, @Victoria 

@Victoria C., @April Adams, @William Baker, @Alexander Price, @Hunter Anderson, @Kyle Van Dieren, @James Toudy, @Israel 

@Israel Matos , @Andrew Jones, @Rebecca K., @Avi Garg, @Calethia Bowman, @Sdakak Zui, @Catherine McHale, @Jason Ong, @Robert Wayne, @Gagan 

@Gagan Johal, @Pamela 

@Pamela Starnes 

Who are you most interested in seeing? What topics do you most want to learn more about and meet more people who are doing it successfully? 

You mean there's not 1 secret tip that let all investors find the best deals easily!?! lol

Good ol fashioned pounding the pavement, analyzing many, submitting offers, and negotiating the few that can be closed on. Whether that be in Oakland, Atlanta, or elsewhere.
I think it's a great lesson for anyone starting out - or jumping up to the larger multifamily. 
They can learn the techniques, analysis, and strategies that you're utilizing. But without hard work, it's not just going to fall into their lap. 

I appreciate that you're putting your money where your mouth is on the end of the "San Francisco Bay Area trade." Like you said, you bought them because they were cheap, for a specific purpose. And now that purpose and relative values have changed. I recently did a Facebook live post from the first property I bought out in Richmond, and have been thinking about selling or exchanging it recently. Will be on my mind for a while I have a feeling.. One in Oakland I've been thinking about also, because it's value is basically maxed out.. 

@Will Barnard,
Do you end up around the same ratios on analyzing, offering, and closing on flip deals? 100 looked at, 10 offered, and 1 closed? Just curious how similar the "guideline" might hold up in MF vs flipping, especially in totally different markets. A reminder that deals don't fall in your lap. They get CREATED, right? 

 I hear you on not selling everything and sitting on the sidelines. 
I don't think we're anywhere near that stretched. 

I have not sold any of my properties I own in the SF Bay Area. If I do think about selling, I look at the potential net proceeds, minus any prop-13 tax basis loss, as a proxy for the net value of what I might sell. If I would buy it for that much today, then I don't sell it. There are some other influences. But I agree that taking a 15%+ tax hit today, to try to deploy it again at exactly the right time, is a rough strategy. Maybe it goes up another 15% before it drops back to today's level. 

It's hard to call the TIMING of an exact top or bottom. 
But I don't think it's as difficult to tell if we're in the early or late stages of an economic expansion. I'm not trying to pick the right day or week. But maybe the right season. 

Nice to have a large bucket on hand if it starts raining a bit ;)

 1) A triplex or duplex that is owner-occupied for 2 years is exempt from rent control for the time that the owner lives there. 
Once you leave, it is no longer exempt. 
If a tenant leaves voluntarily or for just cause (e.g. non-payment of legally increased rent), then the vacant unit can be rented for market rent.

2) 0% down in SF is from San Francisco Credit Union (last I checked). And I'm sure there are others. Of course, there are still qualifications.. 

Best of luck Ben! :)

Netflix is a no-brainer YES!

@ $12/mo or whatever for 5 login accounts, that's only about $2/mo to have the option if they want it. 

It's not always about watching the newest movie.

And not an either/or with another service.

It's dirt cheap and people like it. 

Logging in then remembering to log out of their own Netflix account is a PITA.