Quote from @Nathan Gesner:
All the "free" COVID money caused a major up-swing. We have yet to pay the Piper for that, and it will come back to bite us. I'm not smart enough to know why it hasn't yet, but I know it will happen.
In some ways all of us have already been paying the piper in the form of higher prices, especially groceries and other essentials.
The baseline SFH price in coastal markets is much higher than it was pre-pandemic, with remote work making it that much easier to live in a "vacation" market. It used to be that if you found a 6-figure job in a college or resort town, instead of having to live in a big city, you had basically cracked the code of life and lived a very comfortably. The longer drive to urban job centers outside of commuter range kept those places from getting too crazy in price because the lower local wages kept it in check. Those checks and balances are no longer in place, and the free covid money, low interest and work flexibility is largely to blame.
Are there more consequences to come? I don't know. If I was confident one way or another I would place my investing "bets" accordingly, but for now I make decisions based on where the data and trends suggest the most reliable chance of producing a return.
As for saturation, those who bought in too high will only be able to hang on for so long. Maybe some of the owners have high enough W2 salaries and/or other investments they can leverage to float it? Either way it will eventually it'll wash out. In the meantime I would look at other markets where the price to entry and quality bar is much lower. There are plenty of them out there, they just aren't talked about here on a daily basis.