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All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

John Carbone has started 38 posts and replied 1079 times.

Post: New Sevier County Solid Waste Plan

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955
Quote from @Leora Merrell:

Yes. The cleaners are in a full blown panic. It’s very frustrating. Yet, the county keeps approving more and more cabins to be built. I was just talking to her about how one site we’ve been using during a remodel seems to hardly be used. It’s been great.
Then I remembered there’s 12 1 bedroom cabins almost done being built and a 64 4 bedroom cabin resort expected to be finished within the year within less than a mile of this site. So it will no longer be a slow dump site. Why approve alllll this building and make zero effort to accommodate what comes with it?

I agree, the property tax increase should be used for a solution to this. The way they’re going about it is so backwards and just plain dumb. 


 Where is the location of these developments?

Post: New Sevier County Solid Waste Plan

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955
Quote from @Ken Boone:

For those of you operating in Sevier County, a few days ago, the Sevier County Board of Commissioners passed a new updated solid waste plan.  

First of all the problem as I understand it - some convenience centers are filling up too fast and are closing early presumably due to short term rental trash increase.  This leaves residences of the county having to travel to a different convenient center to drop off their trash.

The new plan is creating a "central" facility where all cleaners must go to take the STR trash. All of the convenience centers will now be enforced as residential only. In addition, a new fee will be charged to the cleaners depending on the size of the load.

This is coming in to play shortly after Sevier County made a ruling that overnight rentals will now be changed to commercial properties thereby levying a 60% tax increase on many short term rentals.  It seems like a simple solution to me.  Use some of that 60% tax increase they received and pay for more frequent truck runs to pick up full dumpsters at convenience centers that are filling up too fast.  Done!

Instead of allowing cleaners to drop off trash at the closest convenient center and then getting back to work quickly, many will have to drive across town and then converge at one location with all other cleaners creating increased traffic problems in an already congested area.  The traffic backup alone may force cleaners to have to drop the number of cabins they support.  Most STRs in this market are turns and the cleaners already have a short window to get cabins turned over for the next guest.   They don't really have the option of just collecting trash and keeping it on their trailers for several days and cutting down on runs due to the bears in the area.

This plan seemed to not take into consideration the overnight rental market and it seems they did not consult with anyone in the overnight rental industry before creating this plan.  There is a petition asking the mayor and the board of commissioners to reconsider this plan and to create a group consisting of all stakeholders to provide consultation to come up with a solution that works best for everyone.  I don't know if I can post a link or not to the petition, but if a moderator allows it I will.

Post: AirBnB Revenue Collapse? Near 50% in some areas......?

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955
Quote from @Peter Mckernan:
Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:

How many of the places are unregulated and over saturated? My revenue is not off but my units are in a regulated market.


 It's crazy to think that the more regulation for the STRs is a better way to go since the numbers consistently stay higher in those markets and the professional hosts keep their properties well within a standard to keep the community safe/pleasant. 

My thought a couple years ago was less regulation the better, but in my markets that is not the case. 

It makes perfect sense actually. However, when government regulates winners and losers, the end result in the long run is even those initial winners will be losers. While there will be less competition, there will be less incentive to have a great property, and tourists will just go to hotels……and the ironic thing about this is…..this is exactly what the local government wants! Who do you think is donating to their next campaign? The Airbnb owner who operates a small place and fights to keep more people from doing it, or the hotel chains who don’t want any competition at all? I think that is pretty clear.

Post: AirBnB Revenue Collapse? Near 50% in some areas......?

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Cory King:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Brian Barch:

 Like what I explained, the statistical method being used is not that accurate because they're averaging from all the hosts, since number of hosts doubled in two years hence it seems the average rev is going down.

Airdna in other hand, could be only doing statistical analysis from the best 10% performing hosts. 

For me the most accurate method is comparing 30 days future booking between cities. My own Airbnb is still generates 200% booking for 30 days LOL

Carlos, it’s about a 10-20 percent decline for most people here who have been doing this a while. There are a lot of “listings” in this area that did really well during Covid (rvs, tents, 1970/80 grandma cabin etc) that are just pulling in virtually 0 bookings. We are already starting to see a drop in supply of 6 percent according to airdna in Gatlinburg from Q4/2022 to Q1/2023. There are also people who bought with interest rates high the past year that have elevated debt service and they are trying to rent their property for more than what the market will support, as a result, they are not getting bookings. I’m not going to rule out a drop getting to 50 percent with certain macro events, but it’s not here yet. 

Post: The “Airbnb crash” follow up

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955

The guy who posted that article on many markets being down 50 percent was on cnbc tonight discussing it along with airdna countering it. It’s crazy how quickly fake news can spread.


to be clear, not disputing rents are down most places, many 20 percent, but 50 percent claim is ridiculous.

Post: AirBnB Revenue Collapse? Near 50% in some areas......?

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955

This guy is really getting traction with his article. 

Post: AirBnB Revenue Collapse? Near 50% in some areas......?

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Also, it cracks me up when people emphatically state - "oh that's not accurate, it was debunked".....debunked by who? How do we know who is making these calls and where they get their info....do they have any skin in the game? Do they look better/do better if one or the other is true...? Same is true for the other guys who make claims that the market is down (or up).

I just think it's interesting to stir up some dust and debate a topic.

From what I see as with most things, it’s usually somewhere in the middle of both extremes. 

everyone I talk to who openly gives their true numbers here in the smokies is down about 20 percent, which falls between “all the rooms” and airdna. 

Post: AirBnB Revenue Collapse? Near 50% in some areas......?

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955
Quote from @Alex Bekeza:

Air DNA data directly contradicts this screenshot. 
Where did this data come from?

PHX did over $21M in May 23

Austin did over $40.3M in May 23

Both markets are up year over year. 

You are one of the only people claiming it’s UP. 

this data is way overdoing the decline, but there is definitely a decline nationwide. 10-20 percent seems to be consensus. 

Post: 120 AirBnB Listings - Ask Me Anything

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955

Jan-June 2023 vs Jan-June 2022 decrease in revenue as a percent 

Post: AirBnB Revenue Collapse? Near 50% in some areas......?

John CarbonePosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Gatlinburg
  • Posts 1,090
  • Votes 955
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:
It wouldn't take long, a year or two of poor cash flow and investors are done. You're kind of a big Govt person though, so I can see why you'd want that control....overall the market is best though, always is the most natural way to settle things out. Like letting 'nature take it's course'...

According to airdna gatlinburg is already seeing a decline in active listings In Q1, down 6 percent. 2nd quarter numbers should be out soon. It’s safe to say, we have reached peak supply.