All Forum Posts by: Jack Medford

With the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 a lot of people have questions about what the impact to the real estate market will be. Only time will tell, of course, but for now I've got the numbers for listings of Single Family homes in Dane County. 

Specifically I am comparing the numbers for March. For now we've got March 1st-22nd for the years 2015-2020 to see if there are any observable trends in how many listings (and at what price ranges) are coming online. 

For anyone interested, I'll be doing an ongoing weekly update on my LinkedIn every Monday and will post monthly results here on BP. 

Total Listings March 1st-22nd  
2015: 657
2016: 585
2017: 589
2018: 588
2019: 517
2020: 544

Total Listings Past Week (16th-22nd)
2015: 212
2016: 167
2017: 156
2018: 166
2019: 170
2020: 158

As many know, we've had an inventory shortage during the last few years. That doesn't appear to have changed much. On the bright side, 2020 shows the first real uptick in listings over this period. However, this has slowed somewhat in the past week. In addition, 2020 is still below the average for the period, which is 580. 

It will be interesting to see what listings look like for the first week of the Wisconsin lock down. 

One interesting thing to note... The number of listings can vary quite a bit based on the day of the week. Notice in the pic below how all the red lines correspond with the weekend. 

Total Listings by Price Range
Year      <$300k       $300k-$450k      >$450k
2015:        396              164                  97
2016:        328              155                 102
2017:        288              193                 108
2018:        249              209                 130
2019:        192              211                 114
2020:        202              216                 126

Nothing terribly shocking here. 2020 follows the same trend that we've seen since 2015. Prices are rising in Dane County, so we're seeing fewer homes under $300k than at the start of this period. Similary, we are seeing more and more homes fill the upper end of these ranges. 

Percent of Homes Listed Within Each Range

Despite COVID-19 worries, we have yet to see the price of listings become affected. 2020 marks the new high point for listings above $450k with 23.16%, while also marking the new low of homes listed below $350k with 37.13%

Zooming in, however, we might be seeing a new trend emerge. 

When looking at the percentages of the last week (March 16th-22nd, 2020) we see a somewhat significant shift. Here's how the percentage of listings in each range breakdown...

Price Range      Percent of Total
<$300k:                   43.67%
$300k-$450k:           37.97%
>$450k:                   18.35%

It appears, if anything, the reaction to the current uncertainty may be that prices are beginning to shift downward. Then again, this could just be a normal fluctuation that happens from week to week. We'll see if this holds up as we move forward.

@Lee Alderman I second Paul's suggestion of connecting with local investment groups. I personally prefer the one that Hussain and Chela run, but I know plenty of people get a lot of value out of the REIA. You can reach out to @Richele Reiske for more info about the Madison REIA. 

Other than that, I'd be happy to jump on a call or just chat via messages about the market. I tend to take a data heavy approach to understanding the market, so I can help you out on that end. 

@Jamie Labrec Yup. I'm a licensed Realtor and pulled all of this data from the MLS. If you have access to the MLS this data can be acquired by searching for sold and expired properties in your area over your desired time range. The fun part (or tricky part depending how you feel about spreadsheets) is corralling the data into manageable and understandable bits.

Let me know if you'd like some help obtaining/organizing housing data for Baraboo and/or the Dells. 

Over the last couple days I've been going through the MLS data for Madison to find out when the best and worst times to list a home are. I've got the data for SF homes for the years 2015-2019 compiled here for everyone.

If you're in another market, like Milwaukee or Janesville (or really anywhere in Wisconsin) and would like to see how your local market compares, let me know. I'll be able to get those numbers out pretty quick. 

Total Listings by Month

Roughly 46% of all listings come on the market between March and June, April being the most popular with 1,633 total over the last 5 years. No shock to see that November – January show the fewest number of listings with the fewest being December at 451.

Average Price vs Median Price

The highest average prices all come in the first half of the year, with the peak being in March at $306,763. Surprisingly, January has the 2nd highest AVG Price at $302,842. More telling are the Median Prices, which show the highest prices are from December – May. This means listing anywhere from December through May will give the best chance at selling at the highest possible price. March, which is right in the middle of this period, is the peak of prices.

Average Days on Market vs Median Days on Market

The AVG Days on Market and Median Days on Market show a not so surprising story. February – April have the lowest AVG numbers, while Median numbers remain similar from January – June. DOM quickly increase, for both AVG and Median, starting in July and continuing through the year.

Total Expired vs Percent Sold

This graph surprised me the most, in that homes listed in the period from June – August appears to be the most likely to expire. Thinking on it more, I should’ve expected this. Homes listed in this period, which do not sell quickly, must then deal with the slow winter months.

On the other hand, we see homes listed between Dec – Feb have the highest percentage of selling. Part of this could be due to there being less inventory during this period. The other factor could be that, when the market begins to pick up in February, these homes are already on the market and willing to sell quickly due to the slow winter.

Conclusion

No matter what your goal, whether selling quick or selling for maximum value, listing in March seems to be the best bet. If listing after June, be prepared to either be competitive on price or be willing to wait a long time for an acceptable offer.

The main rule of thumb…. If at all possible, list in the first half of the year (preferably first 4 months) not in the second half.

@Destinie Appling Starting from scratch is an exciting place to be. It may feel like a mountain to climb at time, but staying active with the local community is, in my opinion, the best way to "guarantee" success. (There are no 100% guarantees, of course.)

Do you have a farm area you're planning to start with? Or are you keeping a pretty broad range to start with?

@Destinie Appling Are you starting from scratch, or do you already have some real estate experience? Either way, I suggest getting connected with the local investor community. Once you start finding deals you want to have an idea of who to send the deals to. 

We've got a local meetup group, organized here on BP, that is free to attend. We just had our last meeting on Wednesday. Next meeting will be on March 11th. 

There is also a REIA here in Madison that can further help you connect with local investors. I just looked on their site and they are having a speaker on the 9th to talk about Wholesaling. Pretty perfect timing. @Richele Reiske can give you more info about that. 

Best of luck as you get started. Let me know if I can help out in anyway. 

Hi All 

Next Wednesday, 2/26, we'll be having our meetup at the regularly scheduled time and place, downtown Madison in the back room of the Brink Lounge at 7pm. 

We've got Joe Luther of UHP Home Warranties coming to talk about and answer Q's we might have about Home Warranties. As always, feel free to show up early to grab a drink and/or mingle beforehand and stay for the meeting after the meeting. AKA more drinking and mingling.

We define success in our Mission:

Our mission is to offer mutual support, collaboration, and learning opportunities for real estate investors. We provide a space to facilitate innovative, socially conscious, ethical, and mutually beneficial real estate transactions.

@Andy Crooks What is it that you look for in a development deal and how to do you go about finding them? Would love to learn more about the development side of the business, especially as it pertains to Dane County. 

Thanks for the shout @Matt Maurice. I originally invested in Milwaukee because it is a much more cash flowing market than Madison. Also, the multi-family stock is huge compared to out here. 

Beloit and Janesville have been attracting a lot of Madison investors who are looking for cash flow. They are closer and show similar returns to Milwaukee. @Garrett Davis runs a management company out there and could expand. Same with @Calvin Ozanick. 

I've been focusing on Madison and surrounding area for flips and wholesales lately. Homes sell extremely fast in most areas and for much more than Milwaukee and Janesville. Hard to find cash flow in Madison, but it is possible. There is also a lot of private money in Madison that is looking to go somewhere. So if you're good at finding deals around Madison you will become very popular, very quickly. 

Hi Everybody!

We've got our next meetup (Feb, 12) scheduled for the same time and place, Brink Lounge at 7pm. The focus of discussion will be on creating a reading list, and possibly a book club. Come to the meeting with any suggestions for books you've either wanted to read or have already read and think others can benefit from.

We also need to finalize a way to pay for the Brink as a meeting spot. We are paid through March, but have to decide to stay and pay the remaining $1,050 balance or choose another location. 

I'm back from California, so I'll be joining in for this one. Looking forward to seeing everyone!

Reach out with any questions.

We define success in our Mission:

Our mission is to offer mutual support, collaboration, and learning opportunities for real estate investors. We provide a space to facilitate innovative, socially conscious, ethical, and mutually beneficial real estate transactions.

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