All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs

Before MLS went digital, before it went online and was available to everybody, mediocre to bad agents could still close enough deals to make a living if they worked long enough hours, because they had the "keys" to the kingdom. Now, where ADDING VALUE is required, the 90% of the lousy, lazy, and even mediocre agents have no special "sauce" provided merely by being licensed.

Yeah, the 'good ole days', eh? That was when the MLS came out weekly as a paper magazine remember? Kinda like Auto Trader.....And if you wanted to see what was available for sale on the market, you HAD to have a Realtor. Same for sellers pretty much unless they wanted to just advertise in the paper, but then there would be almost zero traffic. So yeah, Realtors were absolutely necessary!

And therefore even a bad one could make some sort of living.....

The classified ads in the major newspapers had a homes for sale area where all the big Realtors would take full page ads to showcase their listings. Additionally, they'd advertise individual home listings in those little 1/8 page columns. Some newspapers had a separate "FSBO" area where the FSBO was guaranteed at least 50 calls Monday morning - from Realtors wanting to list their property.
Previewing homes for Realtors was much more important then, as up u til the beginning 1980s the MLS book didn't even include photos.
Since I was in commercial real estate from the beginning of my real estate career (1978) I was only involved in residential when I personally wanted to purchase a SFR for investment.

I know a lot of people think they can do everything a broker representing them can do, and believe they can save the commission. Here is my (admittedly biased) opinion after 45 years in real estate

1. Most people are TERRIBLE at negotiation.
2. These same people incorrectly believe that they are Great negotiators.

More than just “leaving money on the table”, people who are inexperienced, lack knowledge, or just plain lousy at negotiating don’t even realize when they lose a deal that could have been concluded by their incompetence. And that’s not even considering the emotional “detrimental effect” that comes into play when attempting to negotiate their own home transaction.

Don this brings back memories.. when I started in 75. The SF chronicle had classifieds like your talking about and then they had a section for Land out of area. And that could be half a page from Brokers all over CA ( and you know how large CA is) I had a 4 line add every day for about 10 years and an 800 # which again was rare amongst my local competition in the county I was working in.. ( 2.5 hours north of SF ) by about early 90s . classified in the SF paper was a fraction and the out of area land was down to about maybe 3 or 4 adds.. Out of state same thing just a few adds.. But I always followed out of state looking for Oregon Timber deals.. back then many in Oregon thought that CA folks were stupid and would over pay for Oregon property so they would run an add.. Well many of these fisbo's had no clue as to what their timber was worth .. And we scored some massive deals by watching the SF want adds. Just paying what they were asking.. But hey they saved on commish but lost 200 to 500k on timber value .. but you know got to save that commission :) And it was not only fsbo's in those days many realtors had no clue either and would just comp an acreage with timber as a SFR on one acre since that's all a bank would loan against for owner occ.. of course we had alternate financing and a banker that understood timber and or we would pre sell the timber on a Timber deed to the Mill as NO INTEREST NO POINTS. Man I get excited just thinking about those days.. I mean on some of these we literally bought the whole property and home with 100% financing from the mill with zero holding costs.. Just deliver logs to pay the timber deed off etc. this is what I love about RE lots of ways to skin a cat..

Very interesting; those kind of deals are a lot more difficult to find these days because of information availability, especially on line. I remember what we had to go through to first find out what the procedure was for any locale we were interested in as to how to bid on a tax lien or tax certificate or tax foreclosure - heck even the people working at the taxing authority had absolutely no clue - and then to go down to the property records, look up a property via LEGAL DESCRIPTION,(Lot, Block, Subdivision), check out the correct MICROFISH, then find the section with the correct RECORDING NUMBER, then actually be able to correctly INTERPRET the information found…… I remember the whole thing with driving time, waiting etc taking 4-5 hours to get information on 4 or 5 properties. Of course if you had a good relationship with a title company they could do it for you, and you’d get the information a mere 2 weeks later.

my dads RE attorney told me when I started He said go learn the court house thats where the money is made.. and we see that in our industry.. Its a distinct advantage if you have some working knowledge of title process's etc. I find when I do business on the east coast and in attorney closing dominated states the average Agent or investor has NO CLUE how title and courthouse works.. they just hand the contract to the closing attorney and DUCK.. Even in Chicago I see repair addendums come through NOT written by the agent but written by the attorney. I just shutter to think about how many deals get killed by attorneys trying to negotiate contracts for homeowners on repairs LOL

Looking at a property right now where the owner is the agent, they are in foreclosure, owe over $60k in HOA fees - we know what they paid for it and its not worth much more than what they paid but are asking for $400k more (2x) - my agent has been speaking with their agent and they noted they have a full price offer.... My agent said why did you not accept it then since you are in default and accruing all these fees. I love when agents are completely dishonest. They asked us for best and final so we went lower than the last offer.

the take away close very effective in certain situations.

0 Votes

Quote from @Don Konipol:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Don Konipol:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Don Konipol:

I know a lot of people think they can do everything a broker representing them can do, and believe they can save the commission. Here is my (admittedly biased) opinion after 45 years in real estate

1. Most people are TERRIBLE at negotiation.
2. These same people incorrectly believe that they are Great negotiators.

1 Vote

Quote from @Joe S.:

Quote from @Suruki Ward:

I am a local gold miner here in Mali, I am looking for serious global buyers for my gold. I live in Sikasso a village over here in Mali. If you are a serious buyer I welcome the opportunity to discuss how I can meet your gold supply need Whatsapp +22871231064

What you just advertised is not relevant to this thread. maybe you should start a new thread just with that instead of sabotaging this thread.

I had a very short term bizz partner who fell for the gold in Mali scam.. he flys over there spends a few months and big waste of time.. but with the social situation there I think he enjoyed himself even though the gold was BLOOD gold being hand dug by kids and women.

1 Vote

Columbus, Ohio

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Travis Biziorek:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Devin James:

There’s been a lot of talk about declining birth rates in the U.S., how will this impact housing demand in the long run?

I brought it up to a friend this morning, saying I was concerned about what a smaller population could mean for the market.

He made a great point: immigration will offset that decline.

Fewer people being born, but potentially more people moving in.

Has anyone else thought about this when looking ahead at the housing market?

Population trends do affect housing, but they are a lagging indicator. That is, the decline is only realized after the population shifts enough to matter for that market over quite a long time period.

Detroit had a population of 1,800,000 people in the 1950s and was the most valuable city in the USA. I don't believe anybody makes that claim about Detroit today.

There are more vacant houses there than fleas on a camel.

The irony of this post is off the charts.

Detroit is actually doing very well today. People are just stuck in their lagging narratives to realize it.

Ask me how I know.

It isn't Detroit that is doing well, it's the suburbs. And it is by no means what it was in the 1950's. So, by your reasoning, if you buy today and wait long enough, you will be fine. Go for it.

Tell us, how many vacant houses in the city of Detroit? How many of those actually are tear downs?

they dont tear them down the kids burn them down on witching night.. google it Ken .. I know you know alot about most things but you may not be aware of witching night in Detroit.

.
Actually, I have heard of witching night but I haven't experienced it. Thank God.

Your talking about Devil's Night?

yup Devils not witching my bad.. seen it first hand though.. for those that dont know.. day after holloween the kids go wild and set fire to hundreds of vacant homes in Detroit.. ERGO Devils night.

1 Vote

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

Quote from @Christopher Pride:

Hi I am looking to develop 4 plex properties in the SW corner of Oregon. I have experience with fix and flips and I'm about to be (re) licensed as a Broker in Oregon. I have never done a ground up build. I am looking forward to the challenge but could use the advice of someone more experienced.

The plan: Have close to 200k to put in, willing to do leg-work to buy land, get permits, build (likely modular/manufactured), finish, rent for 2 years and flip. I could use someone with experience to mentor, help with financing hurdles, and advice throughout the process.

I would also consider a larger or long-term project including buying and bifurcating, building in phases and other methods depending on property, opportunity and market conditions.

@Jay Hinrichs - no anyone who may be interested?

Chris thanks for thinking of me.. Brookings is very remote spot of Oregon so there is going to be limited access to investors etc. My suggestion would maybe the OP goes to some meet ups in Grants Pass or Medford the closer to the project the more enthused investors will be. Spec building for someone with Zero experience will be tough with Oregon banks.. However some of the larger HML on the West coast might take a swing.

Conventus
Iron Bridge
Kiavi

But you know rural is a tough nut to crack.. Beautiful area but as I said quite remote. I like the Modular home play though.. getting subs on the Oregon coast is really tough.. Even up in our area that is only 90 minutes from PDX . Brookings is 6 hours :)

2 Votes

Quote from @Don Konipol:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Don Konipol:

I know a lot of people think they can do everything a broker representing them can do, and believe they can save the commission. Here is my (admittedly biased) opinion after 45 years in real estate

1. Most people are TERRIBLE at negotiation.
2. These same people incorrectly believe that they are Great negotiators.

1 Vote

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Travis Biziorek:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Devin James:

The irony of this post is off the charts.

Detroit is actually doing very well today. People are just stuck in their lagging narratives to realize it.

Ask me how I know.

they dont tear them down the kids burn them down on witching night.. google it Ken .. I know you know alot about most things but you may not be aware of witching night in Detroit.

0 Votes

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Paul Azad:

SUPPLY

"About 2.6 million Baby Boomers die each year, but that number is expected to increase to nearly 4 million by 2037." And a total of about 3.3 million Americans in total die each year. Likely most are over 40 and more likely to be homeowners than younger people percentage wise. Boomers are largest demographic co-hort in US history. Also a buddy of mine lives in a mythical city called Austin, where he swears while sober, said he saw guys 3-D printing houses, well foundation/walls etc. I have not looked into this but, if process ramps up, could cut construction costs, time to market and massively increase supply, too.

DEMAND

America is decreasing it's previously Laissez-faire approach to immigration.

So population decline either with Celestial deportation or with a more southerly route may not be good long term for housing market?

3-D printing for homes has LOOOOng been around and being fiddled with. Literally decades now. Have you seen any huge impact from 3-D home printing yet? No. It's an interesting idea that still hasn't landed any significant changes.

SW is about the only place we can do it so that's where all the R&D is located by the daisy-chain of those trying to evolve the tech to something of viability.

For now it's still a novelty more than anything.

The recent leaps in pre-fab builds is the spear head of things. BOXABL is a standout leader in this segment. That is where your most likely to see any significant disruptions come from for any radical shift in how housing is built.

been following boxabl but I have yet to see them in the wild.. they are located in Vegas ( factory) and its a very limited product mainly an ADU from what I see.

0 Votes

Quote from @Paul Azad:

SUPPLY

DEMAND

America is decreasing it's previously Laissez-faire approach to immigration.

So population decline either with Celestial deportation or with a more southerly route may not be good long term for housing market?

I looked into the 3 D stuff the machine is 800k and you need a ton of space to use it as you need truck loads of sand delivered then fed into the machine.. My framing crew in oregon frames a 1800 to 3k sq ft home in 5 to 6 working days.. the 3 d cuts that in half. so I dont see a huge advantage there. although the insulation properties are very good.

0 Votes

Quote from @Eric Fernwood:

Hello @Devin James,

The US will likely not face population decline in the next decades due to immigration and longer life spans, even if birth rates decline.

However, national averages have limited relevance to individual cities. Cleveland, Ohio, offers a stark example of population decline. From its peak of over 914,000 residents in 1950, the city's population fell to 750,000 by 1970 and plummeted to about 372,000 by 2020—a 50% decrease since 1970. This dramatic decline stemmed not from birth rates but from issues with city government, crime, and cost of living.

During the same period, the population of the Las Vegas metro area has grown dramatically since 1970. In 1970, the population was approximately 273,000. By 2020, it had surged to over 2.3 million, representing an increase of more than 740% over the same period. This also had little to do with national birth rates.

As investors, we should focus on city-level performance, not national averages. Focus on cities with both significant, sustained population growth and consistent appreciation of existing properties. These two factors serve as strong indicators of a city's long-term economic outlook.

lets keep in mind the reason those cities population declined was simply the JOBS left .. I work in Detroit and Cleveland and other rust belt cities.. U cant base an economy and housing on a certain industry ( auto in Detroit) Steel in Cleveland.. then close them down move the industries and expect the populations to stay the same or increase.. Much of PA is like this Bethlehem perfect example cute city the big steel mill there was after a long wait repurposes but population suffered.

0 Votes

All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs

Jay Hinrichs has started 324 posts and replied 41351 times.

Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Post: Why Aren’t More Investors Building Instead of Buying?

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Post: Looking for small developer to partner with in Oregon

Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Jay Hinrichs has started 324 posts and replied 41351 times.

Rounded Star Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Rounded Star Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Rounded Star Post: Why Aren’t More Investors Building Instead of Buying?

Rounded Star Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Rounded Star Post: Looking for small developer to partner with in Oregon

Rounded Star Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Rounded Star Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Rounded Star Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Rounded Star Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Rounded Star Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Post: Why Aren’t More Investors Building Instead of Buying?

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Post: Looking for small developer to partner with in Oregon

Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?