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All Forum Posts by: Jeff Tumbarello

Jeff Tumbarello has started 198 posts and replied 1011 times.

Post: From the Trenches

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317

Lee County
Lee County SFR Sales August 2008: 710
Lee County SFR Sales August 2007: 424
Active listings Lee County 11567
We absorbed 6% of the Inventory
73 Percent Increase Month over Month in Sales

Lehigh Acres
Lehigh Acres August 2008: 124
Lehigh Acres August 2007: 61
Active Listings Lehigh Acres 2730
We absorbed 5% of the Inventory
103 percent increase Month over Month in Sales

Cape Coral
Cape Coral August 2008: 378
Cape Coral August 2007: 184
Active listings in Cape Coral 4293
We absorbed 9% of the Inventory
105% Increase Month over Month in Sales

Fort Myers
Fort Myers August 2008: 113
Fort Myers August 2007: 132
Active listings Fort Myers 2803
We absorbed 4% of the Inventory
Final Notes
Sales are up Year over Year.
Corp. Sellers still dominate the market.
Lehigh Acres seems to have found pricing desirable to buyers.
The high foreclosure areas are the leading edge of increasing sales due to the inventory available.
Short sales are still not prevalently closing
21 SFR closed in 2007
98 SFR closed in 2008
5407 Active Short Sale Listings Currently.
North Fort Myers seems to not be affected as much by Foreclosures. East of Slater road looks pretty much the same pre-2005.

Post: Does Everyone Understand What Is Going On Here??

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317

Taz,
I hope you are right. I am seeing a mutiple of "vapor paper" to real cash just under 30 to 1. We have a lot more pain still to come. It is hard to really know what we will call this downturn.

No matter what, It is going to leave a mark. The same players who brought us the RESO TRUST have done it all over again. They got a lot better this time :cry:

Post: FDCI eats another, Treasury getting read to eat 2 elephants

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317
Originally posted by David Peeples:
Ouch. I'm afraid "Black Sunday" escaped 99% of all Americans.

Wasn't it like two weeks ago that Bernanke said Fannie and Freddie were "well capitalized", or something to that effect?



They needed a bump to cash out. There are some interesting factors at work here. Chinese and Federal Gov.

Post: FDCI eats another, Treasury getting read to eat 2 elephants

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317

Correction: FDIC
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/silverstate.html

On September 5, 2008, Silver State Bank, Henderson, NV was closed by the Nevada Financial Institutions Division and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed.

All insured non-brokered deposit accounts have been transferred to Nevada State Bank, Las Vegas, NV ("assuming institution") and will be available immediately. Nevada State Bank entered into a separate agreement to sell the Arizona branches of Silver State Bank to its affiliate National Bank of Arizona. On Monday, the former Silver State Bank locations will reopen as branches of Nevada State Bank in Nevada and as branches of National Bank of Arizona in Arizona.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/07/business/fannie.php

The U.S. government's planned takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac came together hurriedly after advisers poring over the companies' books for the Treasury Department concluded that Freddie's accounting methods had overstated its capital cushion, according to regulatory officials briefed on the matter.

The proposal to place both mortgage giants, which own or back $5.3 trillion in mortgages, into a government-run conservatorship also grew out of deep concern among foreign investors that the companies' debt might not be repaid. **meaning we do not not want chinese to sell all those treasury nots because we allowed their money to get lost. I am told but have not verified that some pension funds are deep into Fannie and Freddie as well. JT **

The big question now is whether the U.S. government's move to take over Fannie and Freddie will restore investor confidence in the nation's credit markets, help stabilize the stock market and keep loans flowing to creditworthy borrowers.

Fannie and Freddie, by buying mortgages, provide American banks and other financial institutions with fresh money to make new loans, **(I thought they already had money, ours? :) **) a vital lubricant for the housing and credit markets.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMX336c2lWGQ&refer=worldwide

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson decided to take control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after a review found the beleaguered mortgage-finance companies used accounting methods that inflated their capital,**( Sheila Bair seems to be having the same issue, JT)** according to people with knowledge of the decision.



House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said in an interview yesterday. The government would make periodic capital injections by buying convertible preferred shares or warrants, ***meaning, we will be paid first if we can not save this thing***

Holders of the companies' common and preferred stock are ``very unlikely to come out of this at all happy,'' and the chief executive officers will be forced out, Frank said. Senior and subordinated debt holders will likely be protected, said other people who were briefed on the plan. ***they will wipe those people out to cover the losses, JT**



Why are we having all of these problems? These guys sold the income for fee's. Now they have to make up for the losses with a fractionalized reserve system in place. If you WERE a share holding in Fannie and Freddie, run along and enjoy the beating. Take note of what got you here.

JT
PS How do you eat an elephant?



Post: August 2008 Lis Pendens and Foreclosure Recap, Lee County Florida

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317
Originally posted by Ingrid Nagy:
You rock!!! Do you know where I could locate that data for Osceola county??? Thanks very much.

I start with data from public records. I do not track that county. Start at www.myflorida.com , find the clerk of the court for that County and see what you can find out

Post: Another Bank Bites the Dust

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317
Originally posted by Dan O'connor:
I agree with David...excellent post, Jeff!

Although...I had to read your latter explanation of collaboration a couple of times because I didn't quite get it at first. The ADD kicked in and I subconsciously kept substituting the word 'conspiracy' wherever the word 'collaboration' was used. :wink:

Just keep an eye out for those black helicopters :lol:

Post: Another Bank Bites the Dust

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317
Originally posted by David Peeples:
Josh,

Jeff's response makes the value of this forum immeasurable. I mean, good luck trying to find this kind of help anywhere else on the net.

Can you send him a bigger pockets t-shirt or something?

Thanks Jeff.

Dave




I have learned a lot reading in the Bulk REO section. It is all just another brick in the wall.

We are here to learn.....
or spam and get banned :lol:

Collaboration is a recursive process where two or more people or organizations work together toward an intersection of common goals — for example, an intellectual endeavor that is creative in nature—by sharing knowledge, learning and building consensus. Collaboration does not require leadership and can sometimes bring better results through decentralization and egalitarianism In particular, teams that work collaboratively can obtain greater resources, recognition and reward when facing competition for finite resources.

Post: August 2008 Lis Pendens and Foreclosure Recap, Lee County Florida

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317

Number of deeds conveyed by the clerk of the court via foreclosure action 1210
Number of Mortgage related Lis Pendens 2156

The trend is changing. The deeds being conveyed is starting to gain momentum.


Notes Lis Pendens Filings

• We had a reduction from July to August. The key to watch is the next 2 months
• September is the last month of QTR 3. The Filings have showed a pattern of a month increase and a 2 month decrease followed by another increase. Another factor there might be pressure to show an improvement in QTR 4 for Year End numbers.
• I would wait to pass judgment on the filings trending down until September and October are in books.
• The homestead percentage from July was updated. The Lis Pendens filings where a homestead exception are trending down by percentage. One reason for this is the lenders willingness to work out a modification with HOMEOWNERS

Notes Deeds Conveyed

• The lenders taking back deeds this month are the primary drivers of REO sales within the Market
• Expect more downward price pressure in high foreclosure markets where there is proportionately lower sales activity. IE Lehigh Acres
• The count of deeds jumped dramatically. This is due to the court system streaming things a few months back.
• The good news is the REO’s are what the market wants.
• More good news, some lenders are choosing to rent versus sell.
• Hat tip to Charlie Green and his staff as well as the judicial side. There does not appear to be a staffing up from recent years. They are handling hugely exponentially growing work load

Post: Another Bank Bites the Dust

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317
Originally posted by David Peeples:
Josh/Jeff,

Can either of you guys comment on lender requirements to maintain reserves when they repossess property?

In other words, I have heard that if a lender (bank or servicer) forecloses and regains possession, then they must keep cash reserves on hand of 30% of property value.

I have also heard that the requirement to adhere to this rule hinges on the lenders standing as viewed by the FDIC.

True?
Fales?
Somewhere in between?

thanks,

Dave



Dave,
I emailed the FDIC a few months ago with the same question this is what I got back

Subject: RE: Loan Loss Reserves and Real Estate owned on a banks balance sheet


Jeff,

I am sorry for the long delay in getting back to you, but you caught me on vacation and I have had a very tight deadline on a project since I got back.

I hope I can help some, but I am not a capital expert or an examiner. Risk based capital guidelines govern how much capital must be on the books for a bank. The Call Report Instructions can be a good source for this and the web site www.ffiec.gov should have an area where you can find the instructions. Most loans are classified by the type of collateral that is taken to support the loan. A mortgage usually has a risk weight of about 50 percent while a commercial loans has a 100 percent risk weight. So for an 8 percent capital ratio, a bank would have to hold 4 percent against the mortgage and 8 percent against the commercial loan. Whether the loan is performing up to its terms or not is not usually a capital question, but a loan loss reserve issue.

Banks hold reserves for possible losses on loans. Loan loss reserve (LLR) guidelines are likely to be documented in examination standards and Financial Institution Letters (FILs). Examiners often classify loans as substandard, doubtful or loss. The level of reserves required gets greater as the loan gets closer to default. Once a loan is in default, it could be 30 days pass due, more days past due, or on a non-accrual status. Most banks stop their accruals after 90 days past due. A bank takes an expense to add funds to its LLR, but when they charge-off the loan it just reduces the LLR without an income hit. Of course, the income hit will reduce capital.

Once a loan is in default and the deed is received in a foreclosure, the asset stops being a loan and becomes other real estate owned. The bank transfers the loan to other real estate owned at its expected value and begins an effort to sell the property. Banks are not expected to be real estate holders and this is discouraged, but some bad portfolios do end up turning to other real estate owned. (The other is to differentiate it from real estate they meant to invest in, but most are not allowed to make direct investments into real estate). I believe the capital required for other real estate owned is in the 100 percent risk weight category. At one point, it might have been 200 percent, but I don’t think it is now. The asset value is often much lower than the loan value because all the expenses related to foreclosure and selling expenses have to be accounted for when its transferred to other real estate owned.

I hope this helps and it should give you some places to check out the details.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Please take note of the word Guideline that is used, not rule
also they choose pretty much what to do based upon values they determine internally. Thats why all the BPO's are so high. They want them to be high. Until it hits their balance sheet, the reserve requirements are "manageable". When they get the deed is when it get ugly. That is why they are not really doing shortsales.

I can remember a "GURU" stating in his shortsale pitch that its was 3 times the asset for reserves that is why his "system" makes so much sense.
LOL :)
So if they do not understand that part of the equation, how can they understand the rest?

Post: Another Bank Bites the Dust

Jeff Tumbarello
Posted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Fort Myers, FL
  • Posts 1,275
  • Votes 317

It is pretty much every bank. If you include the offsheet stuff. BOA is holding Countrywide off sheet right now.

CITI has 90 Billion cash, with 1.1 trillion worth of CDO's held offsheet. They can not cover the CDO's, much alone the stuff on the Balance sheet.
Locally (SWFL) since Indymac was taken down, their Lis Pendens filings are up, I guess Sheila Bair found the closet full of bad paper, they were hiding