@Garrett Pickering
Arizona is very much in a seller's market right now. However, that does not mean it is a bad time to buy. Interest rates are still at historic lows, and the amount you can afford because of that, is higher. Obviously, timing the market is impossible and everyone has their opinions. I have seen many BPers over the past few years debate when the next downturn will be. We are in unprecedented times and no one has a crystal ball. When you look at the data that the Cromford Report studies and the information they provide, their predictions of things slowing down anytime soon seem very slim. Also, continue to listen to the BP podcast and others to get boots on the ground update on what is going on in markets across the country.
Ultimately it depends on your goals. Everyone says they want to buy in a "buyer's market" but what they really want is to buy at the end or near the end of a buyer's market, before prices start to climb again. No one wants to buy a house, then watch the value continue to drop. Unless, of course, your strategy is long term buy and hold and you're sitting fine on cashflow and don't care about the property's overall value. Higher risk, as it limits your exit strategy since your property value is declining and you likely owe more than it is worth. As long as you can make that property sustain during the down, things will always rise again. You mentioned buying your first home, then also mentioned flipping. Does this mean your are interested in doing a live in flip/rehab? Will you be selling it at the end or keeping it as a rental? I would start with your end game in mind, then reverse engineer it to figure out the how and your next step.
All in all, I encourage you to figure out your goal for this house, build a criteria and stick to it. Analyze the deals, make sure the numbers work and avoid getting too emotional. It's harder to do on owner occupied homes, but keep the investor mindset and don't get fomo (fear of missing out) because there will be something that comes up and makes sense. As @Andrew Rosenberg said, deals can be found in any part of the market cycle. I am in AZ but not in your market, but if you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a PM. I would be happy to help in any way that I can.
Good luck!
