Quote from @Russell Brazil:
Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
Quote from @Kristi K.:
Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
you are probably feeling like BRRR doesn't work because you are trying to turn a 600k house into a rental. It would be hard to cash flow on a 600k house that has 3600 in rent regardless of the broader economic situation going on in society.
i find that when someone says BRRR doesn't work anymore they end up meaning it doesn't work well for the specific types of real estate that they want to buy. And I've got no qualm with someone saying they aren't doing BRRR anymore but the bolder "brrr is not effective today" is in my view not very accurate.
Funny you mentioned a $600K house doesn’t pencil out as a rental. This just got sent to me this am.
https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/cost-of-constructing-a-home...
cool break down thanks for sharing! This seems to be breaking down new construction and is a national average so kind of hard to read into this what it means in general but I would not expect a 665k new construction house to be my target for a rental property.
Im a medium sized operator - 46 units- and my typical deal has an ARV from 200 to 230 when its finished. Wich goes back to my comment to the initial poster. people who want to buy homes in DC and top markets like that are the ones saying BRRR is impossible right now. Im not even sure that it is impossible in those markets but the main issue is that BRRR isnt working where they want to buy not that BRRR doesnt work.
A typical BRRRR in DC creates $200k in equity. Seems pretty good to me.
It is not that good at the price point of DC or in my market (but better than my market). My market $155k average flipper equity gain according to Attom. Flippers get a 20% equity gain. I am assuming brrrr do similar but in reality, due to conservative nature of refi appraisals, I suspect they achieve less valuation if based on the refi appraisal.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2024/12/16/home-flippin...
“Attom said the median price for a home flip purchase was $760,000 in San Diego County and sold for $915,000. That’s a 20% return on investment before expenses, down from 26.1% at the same time last year. The average for the U.S. in the third quarter was a 28.7% return on investment.
It’s impossible to know what every flipper in the U.S. spent to remake homes but Attom said the 28.7% return is within a range that could be easily wiped out by renovation expenses, mortgage payments and property taxes.”
My large last extensive rehab was a little unit and I spent over $100k and I have done quite a few rehabs (3 last year, so hopefully my cost is competitive with what can be achieved). Fortunately it was a location with a PSF of ~$1.5k, so I added more than $100k of valuation (suspect I may not have quite achieved my $2 added for every $1 spent).
But the bigger issue I see, if I add $200k of equity at hopefully a cost of no more than $100k it seems like maybe a good brrrr but what if it has expenses on a sustained hold that results in negative $1k/month? I can sell and get ~$93k of that value add (using 7% selling costs) or I can hold and in 8 months have less of the value add present after accounting for the negative cash flow ($92k and decreasing monthly).
My last two planned BRRRRs I never did the refi and one has over a $1m equity position. I have low 3% rate on a jumbo loan (valuation just over $3m after value add and 3 years of market appreciation). If I were to finance at current rates at max LTV it would have huge negative cash flow. The other is a similar situation but maybe $700k equity on a $2m valuation.
If these were purchased at today’s rates, they scream flip and not to hold them. Fortunately at my rate they have some cash flow and good appreciation.
The rates make it rare that the brrrr is the best option available. The equity gain is just one part of the equation on if brrrr is appropriate.
Good luck