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All Forum Posts by: Giovanni Isaksen

Giovanni Isaksen has started 5 posts and replied 293 times.

Post: BC housing bubble

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

RCA has a report out that says cross border CRE investment in the US by Chinese investors have fallen behind Canadian and Singaporean investors this year after being the largest last year, dropping 55% YoY. Investments from Singapore are 2x last year through Q3 however... which could include Chinese money moved to Singapore on the DL

https://www.rcanalytics.com/cross-border-us-q3/

Unfortunately beyond mentioning 15B of Canadian investment into the US, it doesn't mention about Asian money going into Canada. 

Post: BC housing bubble

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

@Jason D. Lewis; thank you, I think you covered it very well. A lot of Chinese buyers have gone to Seattle but Trump makes them nervous (me as well) so I don't think they're as attached to US markets as they are Vancouver and if Seattle implements the same anti-foreign measures as Vancouver I think they would choose Vancouver over Seattle.

The capital controls are mainly focused on corporate purchasers and the smaller time players but I'm assured that the really wealthy/connected can still move money out yet flows are lower. Maybe I'll get that buying opportunity that I missed 10 years ago when I thought a 7 cap was too low for Vancouver?

@Kaden Prete A bit of a confession; two years ago when this thread started I was in the middle of a research project for an Asian RE fund whose NA HQ was in Vancouver so I had recently looked quite closely at the market to contrast conditions there with the markets we were targeting, thus I had most of that data in hand already. Other than for my own interest (would like to own multifamily in Van) I haven't been tracking things as closely compared to those days... In fact the latest report from CMHC has been sitting in my inbox for a few days already. However research and underwriting is what I do...

Post: What does Cap Rate mean, really?

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

For those who are stock market investors, cap rate in real estate serves as the common valuation metric just like a PE ratio (aka earnings multiple) does with stocks. Unlike PE though it's expressed as the inverse, so its closest analog in stocks is the earnings yield. 

Why this is useful: An earnings multiple tells you how many years of earnings it will take to pay back your investment. In today's real estate market where cap rates are in the 5s, 4s and in Vancouver BC the 2s, it's pretty eye opening to see how long those payback periods are. 5% cap rate = 20 years, 4% = 25 years and 2% = 50 years... and that's just getting back to even! 

Yes but some will say what about appreciation? Well if you bought something at a 2 cap how much further cap rate compression are you going to bet on? Virtually all future appreciation would only come through increasing NOI... and how long do you think that rents will go only up?

Post: Is Mini-Storage an RE Investment or Just a Business?

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

Great question about self-storage (ss) being a business or a real estate play. I think the same thing applies to any real estate though. Whether it commercial office space, apartments or single family the question really comes down to whether you are in the landlording/operating business or the property owning business. If you're the landlord, that's a whole different business than if you're an owner.

Yes the property manger is a large expense item for many facilities but it's just that, an expense item. If you are in the owning business then a deal isn't a deal unless it pencils with professional property management, no matter what sector it's in.

The great thing is that technology has come to the ss industry with kiosk systems which integrate with the management platforms and security systems. Now you really only need someone to walk the property to make sure it's clean and undamaged; leasing, collecting rents, locking out delinquent tenants, even selling locks can be handled by automated systems. Many platforms also provide live chat/phone banks to answer questions as well as providing SMO online advertising and marketing along with lease management systems that optimize rents.

With those systems in place you can truly be in the self-storage owning business.

Interesting also that several people have mentioned the land banking strategy for ss. Back in the '80s my mom was on the board of a privately held real estate company and pitched the idea of acquiring two ss facilities located in Bellevue, a suburb of Seattle. The land bank idea was part of her pitch back then too. She couldn't sell the board on the idea and since then Bellevue has grown into its own urban center with 2MM sf of Microsoft office space among many others but those two single-story, unheated ss facilities are still there... because they cashflow like mad. Eventually Public Storage acquired them... who also used to pitch the land bank idea for their limited partnership deals back in the day before they went public.

Post: Apartment vs SFH Investing

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

@Michael Bishop good points.

One difference between sfr and multifamily is that often the checks you write are much bigger in multifamily. That sounds obvious but it has some important implications:

  • Income & expense budgeting becomes critical.
  • Accounting systems need to be robust to track actual inc. & exp. against the budget.
  • Vendor, purchasing  and payment policies need to be in place and enforced.
  • Good cash management is extra important.
  • Controls are needed for who has access to cash and the cash mgt accounts, when they can access and how much they have access to.
  • Planning & budgeting for CapEx and CapEx reserves require a professional approach.

Skip one of these and you'll end up growing a value add deal for the next buyer while the property underperforms in the present. That's why a deal is not a deal for us unless it pencils with a professional property management co. who has the verifiable systems already in place.

Post: Apartment Financial Underwriting - A 2-part Series

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

Very good introduction Scott. Can't wait for part 2. Really appreciate someone who shares the actual terminology and the real everyday math that pros in the industry use...

Post: Why is Seattle yard work so expensive?

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

Part of the reason is that Seattle is swamped with newly minted college grads pulling down 100k or more and that has an effect on demand for everything including workers. Not many people here want to mow lawns for a living when there are so many 'easier' jobs available and we haven't been importing many blue collar workers since 2008. For example Mexico has had negative net migration (more people moving back home than coming to the US); partially because their unemployment rate is even lower than ours and Mexico is the 11th largest economy in the world.

Another piece of the puzzle is that working class people are getting killed on rent increases in Seattle so they need to make a decent wage just to be able to have a roof over their head. 

And just try to pry the game controller out of some school kid's hand to come mow your lawn!

Good hunting!

Post: Non-resident alien looking to invest in Seattle, WA area

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

Hello @Sei-Jung Park

I am experienced working with investors from Asia. My focus is multifamily (5+ units) in the greater Seattle area and would be happy to connect you to the other professionals you seek.

If you are looking for single family houses I can connect you with a very experienced agent who is 한국어를 유창하게 구사하는 사람.

Post: Help needed finding investment property in Seattle

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

Hi Peter, you're right on both counts; Seattle is ridiculous price-wise and everyday it seems the City gets less landlord friendly.

So what to do? Well our solution is to look outside of the city and a couple years ago that was Bothell and south to Kent, Puyallup all the way down to Tacoma but now those places are all bid up as well. For a while Everett worked well but it's also spread north past Everett to Marysville and beyond. 

Now we're looking further north to Mount Vernon, Burlington, etc. but even these are starting to feel the pressure. The renters/buyers there aren't commuting to Seattle (not many at least but I do know one) but between Boeing, the Navy port and the Naval Air Station in Oak Harbor there are plenty of people commuting from the Mount Vernon daily. My son who is a wine rep is one, he drives from Mount Vernon to Oak Harbor nearly every day and has a bunch of neighbors in MV who do it every single day.

Keynes said markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent so buying for appreciation, even in Seattle might work but that's more risk than I'm willing to take; I need cash flow with a margin of safety... in a good employment market. Otherwise I'd be buying in at the Ponzi Finance stage and awaiting my Minsky Moment.

Not to say that you won't find a house here or there that works but the return on effort to dig one up is pretty low. If you're interested in looking north shoot me a message and connect.

Good hunting-

Post: Having trouble landing my first deal

Giovanni IsaksenPosted
  • Investor
  • Bellingham, WA
  • Posts 308
  • Votes 230

Stick to your numbers is the standard advice but let me ask this: In a 2.50 T10* world where there's a planet's worth of capita dying for yield (e.g. pension plans trying to hit their return targets), why do you think you can earn 4x+ the T10 rate for an existing property with rent paying tenants in a smoking hot employment growth market? 

Not picking on you because I have this conversation with syndicators and pe guys all the time as well but that's the reality in the Seattle area. That's not to say that you won't get double-digit returns over the hold period but you just won't get them out the door. 

And if it helps a couple Seattle resi brokers I know have had multiple homeowner buyers be outbid on 12 or 15 properties... All cash, no contingency, with escalators.

*Translation: the T10 is the 10yr Treasury rate which is the reference benchmark for pretty much everything real estate related whether debt or equity. Some would say that only applies to institutional types but the reality is that low rates and returns have pushed the instis out beyond trophy properties in core gateway markets (Boston, NYC, DC, LA, San Francisco and Seattle (on a good day people will admit to Seattle). This creates the domino effect where the pressure from the guys above you coming into your market/sector/deal size cause you to reach down smaller/further out, rinse and repeat all the way down to single family flipper and investors.